The origin of Covid: Did people or nature open Pandora’s box? • Hacker News Board

Re: The origin of Covid: Did people or nature open Pandora’s box?

#431

Post by pmoriarty » Fri, May 07, 2021, 4:41 PM UTC

ravenstine wrote: post #425

caseysoftware wrote: post #390

I think the media successfully conflated four separate questions: a) Did it form in nature or in a lab? b) Did it become more communicable via nature or via the lab? c) Did it make it to humans through nature (or wet market) or via the lab? d) If it came from the lab was it on purpose or an accident? as simply "OMG IT CAME FROM A LAB" and then claimed it's all a conspiracy theory. The media as a whole shot themselves…

It's really interesting to see this shift in sentiment that HN users have towards the media and journalism. A couple of years ago this comment wouldn't have made it to the top of the page, and it may have even been grayed out. This isn't something I'm celebrating, though. It's not a sign of a successful state when everyone is losing confidence in the press.

It would serve us well to distinguish between different types of media critiques.

One the one hand, there's the critique that media institutions are becoming more commercialized, dumbed-down, and turned in to infotainment, where serious discussion and inquiry is thrown out the window in favor of shouting matches and sensationalism.

There's another critique that media is in service or left-wing, right-wing, capitalist, or corporate special interests and parrots the party line.

Yet another critique is that the media doesn't give marginalized voices enough air time.

So when you say "everyone is losing confidence in the press" that may be true in general, but different people are doing so for very different reasons.

The grandparent comment seems to be a critique of the third category, where they seem to want the mainstream media to give more air time to conspiracy theories in direct contravention to the consensus of the scientific community: which is that SARS-CoV-2 came from nature, not from a lab.

Re: The origin of Covid: Did people or nature open Pandora’s box?

#432

Post by abecedarius » Fri, May 07, 2021, 4:42 PM UTC

pizza234 wrote: post #192

I'm very confused by the article. There has been an extensive analysis by a virologist on Reddit[¹], who claimed that, very simply, SARS-COV2 is a so-called "mosaic" virus, while man-made viruses are inevitably "chimera" ones. The article does not seem to make this distinction. The virologist also chimed on HN (besides, calling BS on people who were, out of ignorance, spreading false beliefs), but it seems he's not p…

When this came up on HN before, it looked like the argument was premised on the divergence between RaTG13 and SARS-CoV-2 -- it's not reasonable to think some lab started from RaTG13 and ended up with SARS-CoV-2. It's a very long reddit thread and I'm not a biologist, so it's hard to be sure. But on that understanding, my objection is "WIV had many unpublished coronavirus samples, and took their database offline in fall 2019. RaTG13 is just the least distant relative to SARS-CoV-2 that they did publish." as I said last time: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=26756618

Re: The origin of Covid: Did people or nature open Pandora’s box?

#433

Post by lamontcg » Fri, May 07, 2021, 4:43 PM UTC

uvesten wrote: post #251

I think most people are confused because of CCP’s successful disinformation campaign, and also out of fear of being seen as prejudiced. The fact is that an epidemic with a corona virus (never before or since seen in the wild) with a peculiarly efficient ability to infect humans started in the _only city in the world with a lab where gain-of-function experiments on corona viruses_ is located. Just apply occam’s razor,…

> Every other theory requires involving many more unsupported hypotheses.

No it doesn't.

All it takes is bats around farmed animals like minks or raccoon dogs.

That sets up a natural "gain of function" experiment with the bats passing viruses off to the farmed animals who pass it sequentially through the entire farm.

The humans who work at those farms then bring in human coronaviruses which could have recombined with the viruses in the farm.

You have large bioreactors doing gain of function experiments all over China right out in plain view, with Charles Darwin overseeing the lab work.

Re: The origin of Covid: Did people or nature open Pandora’s box?

#434

Post by jcims » Fri, May 07, 2021, 4:47 PM UTC

pizza234 wrote: post #192

I'm very confused by the article. There has been an extensive analysis by a virologist on Reddit[¹], who claimed that, very simply, SARS-COV2 is a so-called "mosaic" virus, while man-made viruses are inevitably "chimera" ones. The article does not seem to make this distinction. The virologist also chimed on HN (besides, calling BS on people who were, out of ignorance, spreading false beliefs), but it seems he's not p…

Minor detail, but the title of that reddit post instantly turned me off. It's indicates the author is clearly willing to state opinions as fact, and even though they walk it back in their TL;DR, it reeks of the same type of manipulation that conspiracists thrive on.

Re: The origin of Covid: Did people or nature open Pandora’s box?

#435

Post by blumomo » Fri, May 07, 2021, 4:49 PM UTC

Bayesian_bro wrote: post #300

The origin of COVID-19 is going to be one of the biggest news stories in 2021-22 IMO. China's global reputation is going to take a hit. I don't think they did this intentionally. I think everyone had the best of intentions and either they found something deep in a bat cave or there was a lab mishap. I've gone down the rabbit hole on this issue. Here are some interesting links https://scholar.google.com/scholar?q=R01A…

Is it fair to blame China alone if the institute was financed with foreign help?

Re: The origin of Covid: Did people or nature open Pandora’s box?

#436

Post by AzzieElbab » Fri, May 07, 2021, 4:51 PM UTC

newacct583 wrote: post #401

AzzieElbab wrote: post #367

Earlier quoted context omitted.

this is fascinating. Rogin is making the claim right before your eyes and your conclusion is that he doesn't mean it because he never printed it?

He's literally not. I don't have the book, your other link is a podcast. And (this is the really important part) literally no one else, not even Breitbart or conservative link farms who would slurp this up like candy, is reporting that Rogin said it. So I choose to believe that you're just wrong about what he said. Again, Fauci covertly directing funds to an area of research that the medical community has recognized…

Thank you for this fascinating insight into a stranger’s decision making process. I am not being ironic

Re: The origin of Covid: Did people or nature open Pandora’s box?

#437

Post by kansface » Fri, May 07, 2021, 4:53 PM UTC

COGlory wrote: post #340

neonological wrote: post #330

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why in your opinion is the lab leak so low in probability?

Primarily Occam's razor. The total area available to coronaviruses in the wild to replicate and mutate in is orders of magnitude greater than the area available in a laboratory.

I am not an expert in the field, but I don’t find this math convincing - I arrive at the opposite conclusion. This was not a random lab and the outbreak didn’t just start anywhere.

Re: The origin of Covid: Did people or nature open Pandora’s box?

#438

Post by chitowneats » Fri, May 07, 2021, 4:53 PM UTC

TrispusAttucks wrote: post #339

gonehome wrote: post #326

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What bothers me about it is not only did it take a long time for the “truth to win”, but mainstream media orgs actively suppressed it because of tribal stupidity. It was used as an example of “fake news”: https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/02/technology/biden-reality-... > “ Hoaxes, lies and collective delusions aren’t new, but the extent to which millions of Americans have embraced them may be. Thirty percent of Republ…

Exactly! 2020 will be forever the year I lost total trust in mainstream media. It's one thing to just "get it wrong" it's an entirely different thing when the powers that be are actively trying to promote a false narrative. And then to turn around and label actual journalism and truth seeking as "conspiracy-theorist" and "crack pots" it is just too much to bear. Filling the news with endless critiques and shaming of…

Whether or not you have grokked this seems to be one of the fundamental political divisions in the U.S. today.

Re: The origin of Covid: Did people or nature open Pandora’s box?

#439

Post by kirill5pol » Fri, May 07, 2021, 4:55 PM UTC

sumedh wrote: post #365

Bayesian_bro wrote: post #300

The origin of COVID-19 is going to be one of the biggest news stories in 2021-22 IMO. China's global reputation is going to take a hit. I don't think they did this intentionally. I think everyone had the best of intentions and either they found something deep in a bat cave or there was a lab mishap. I've gone down the rabbit hole on this issue. Here are some interesting links https://scholar.google.com/scholar?q=R01A…

> I don't think they did this intentionally. Then why did they cover up and downplay the seriousness at the start?

It’s not far fetched to say if a lab escape did occur, it would be in the government’s best interest to keep that secret (it could easily affect reputation/blame from others).

An analogous example would be a hit and run by a drive. The driver may have driven recklessly but not have meant to do damage to others, after damage is done the driver doesn’t want to be discovered. Similarly if this was a lab escape, the government doesn’t want their recklessness to be known.

Re: The origin of Covid: Did people or nature open Pandora’s box?

#440

Post by caseysoftware » Fri, May 07, 2021, 4:56 PM UTC

pmoriarty wrote: post #431

ravenstine wrote: post #425

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's really interesting to see this shift in sentiment that HN users have towards the media and journalism. A couple of years ago this comment wouldn't have made it to the top of the page, and it may have even been grayed out. This isn't something I'm celebrating, though. It's not a sign of a successful state when everyone is losing confidence in the press.

It would serve us well to distinguish between different types of media critiques. One the one hand, there's the critique that media institutions are becoming more commercialized, dumbed-down, and turned in to infotainment, where serious discussion and inquiry is thrown out the window in favor of shouting matches and sensationalism. There's another critique that media is in service or left-wing, right-wing, capitalist…

> The grandparent comment seems to be a critique of the third category, where they seem to want the mainstream media to give more air time to conspiracy theories in direct contravention to the consensus of the scientific community: which is that SARS-CoV-2 came from nature, not from a lab.

My actual criticism was closer to your first category: "where serious discussion and inquiry is thrown out the window in favor of shouting matches and sensationalism"

But thank you for demonstrating my point by re-collapsing all four questions into one.