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The origin of Covid: Did people or nature open Pandora’s box?

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Re: The origin of Covid: Did people or nature open Pandora’s box?

#311

Post by fidesomnes »

"More than a year after the initial documented cases in Wuhan, the source of SARS-CoV-2 has yet to be identified, and the search for a direct or intermediate host in nature has been so far unsuccessful."

I believe it is know and is classified as Top Secret which is why there is a total blackout in Western news agency's investigations into this issue. It will not be revealed until 2024 after the election and it is my speculative belief that Trump hinted what they already knew in 2020.

Re: The origin of Covid: Did people or nature open Pandora’s box?

#312

Post by fidesomnes »

dirtyid wrote: post #233
didericis wrote: post #214

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I lean towards the lab hypothesis due to China’s behavior early in the pandemic. I have a difficult time understanding why they would have been arresting doctors who were talking about the virus if it were natural. The transition from arresting doctors to locking down cities doesn’t make much sense otherwise. You could argue they had motivation to arrest doctors talking about a natural infection if they thought they…

>I have a difficult time understanding why they would have been arresting doctors who were talking about the virus if it were natural. No doctors were arrested early on. Few got cold tea lectures about spreading rumors that literal SARs returned not novel SARs like virus. Signed boilerplate paperwork and was released back to work. This is generic behavior for "picking quarrels and provoking trouble" tier infractions.…

Oh the low information CCP apologist!

Re: The origin of Covid: Did people or nature open Pandora’s box?

#313

Post by tremon »

astrange wrote: post #137
octoberfranklin wrote: post #130

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't believe the lab escape was even remotely deliberate; however: > the virus has no characteristics that would make for a good weapon of any kind. Quite the contrary. The virus clearly favors authoritarian societies whose citizens will let their government weld them into their apartments. Just look at the death rate in China compared to the US and Europe. The only free societies that have come out unscathed are…

I mean, the best way to survive SARS-CoV-2 appears to be "be South Korean". Africa and random Eastern European countries have also been doing okay.

Africa and random Eastern European countries have also been doing okay.

Over time, I have seen these numbers level out. Of course, there's still some disparities in how countries manage the epidemic, but it seems more a case of when a country will be hit, not if. The countries that managed their first wave well (Poland, Czechia, Ukraine, Turkey) have been hit harder in the second wave than other countries.

It seems that Covid spread and fatality nicely correlates with how integrated and mobile a country's society is. Which shouldn't be that surprising, I guess. The only countries bucking this trend are in East-Asia (not just South Korea, but Japan, Singapore, Vietnam, etc), probably due to their experiences with earlier outbreaks.

Re: The origin of Covid: Did people or nature open Pandora’s box?

#314

Post by shoto_io »

followtheplot wrote: post #294

"... proponents of lab escape can explain all the available facts about SARS2 considerably more easily than can those who favor natural emergence." "The natural emergence theory battles a bristling array of implausibilities." This is a fantastic article, but amazingly almost all of it is year-old news. Most of this was known in March 2020, and nearly all of it by the end of 2020. How does it take so long for the trut…

Well, I can relate to that. Most of 2020 we were focused on fighting the aftermath of the crisis.

Now that things slowly are getting back to normal, at least in some Western countries, our focus shifts to the origins.

I was also very skeptical in the beginning about the escape theory tbh. But after reading a couple of pieces I’m opening up to the possibility.

Re: The origin of Covid: Did people or nature open Pandora’s box?

#315

Post by Majromax »

himinlomax wrote: post #136
seymore_12 wrote: post #61

If we apply Occam's razor [1] decision between "Wuhan, however, is home of the Wuhan Institute of Virology, a leading world center for research on coronaviruses" and "Wuhan, there is a wet market where under certain conditions virus can jump from bat to monkey to person" is relatively straightforward But then, we should probably also apply Hanlon's razor [2] "never attribute to malice that which is adequately explain…

There's no razor to apply, both hypothesis are plausible at this point based on available evidence and without any speculation whatsoever. And still without any speculation, one of those hypothesis could potentially be confirmed if only the main suspect did let us look at the crime scene. In any criminal trial, said suspect would get a guilty verdict from the jury in minutes.

> In any criminal trial, said suspect would get a guilty verdict from the jury in minutes.

No, since in a criminal trial the standard is proof beyond a reasonable doubt. That hasn't been met here.

This article certainly makes a prima facie case which would be enough to trigger discovery in a civil case. A reasonable person could also think that it has provided proof on the balance of probabilities, which would be enough for civil but not criminal liability.

Re: The origin of Covid: Did people or nature open Pandora’s box?

#316

Post by Consultant32452 »

uvesten wrote: post #251

I think most people are confused because of CCP’s successful disinformation campaign, and also out of fear of being seen as prejudiced. The fact is that an epidemic with a corona virus (never before or since seen in the wild) with a peculiarly efficient ability to infect humans started in the _only city in the world with a lab where gain-of-function experiments on corona viruses_ is located. Just apply occam’s razor,…

I would like to add another factor in your favor for this hypothesis. Naturally occurring viruses/bacteria tend to evolve to spread most effectively in conditions similar to how animals live: outside. COVID-19, conversely, seems to fair poorly outside and spreads most rapidly in indoor conditions not unlike one would expect in a human run laboratory environment.

Re: The origin of Covid: Did people or nature open Pandora’s box?

#317

Post by collyw »

didericis wrote: post #246
onethought wrote: post #231

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Arresting Drs talking about a possible repeat of SARS is something China clearly wouldn’t want out unless it absolutely had to. The effects on markets, general panic etc are not nothing issues. Later discovering they really did have a problem and it was even worse than SARS going to a full lockdown at the main crossroads city right before Chinese New Year (the largest human migration event). The motivation feels very…

If this did come from a lab, it was an accident. I think it’s unreasonable to consider the spread in China intentional, as there’s no reasonable motivation to do so. The main difference from SARS is we know there is a virology lab in Wuhan researching coronaviruses right across from the wet market considered the epicenter. I don’t know enough about the reaction to SARS to know how similar it was, but my understanding…

> as there’s no reasonable motivation to do so. China is the only major economy to have done well during the pandemic. Not saying that it was intentional but it seems somewhat naive to say there is no reasonable motivation to do so.

Re: The origin of Covid: Did people or nature open Pandora’s box?

#318

Post by zby »

Bayesian_bro wrote: post #300

The origin of COVID-19 is going to be one of the biggest news stories in 2021-22 IMO. China's global reputation is going to take a hit. I don't think they did this intentionally. I think everyone had the best of intentions and either they found something deep in a bat cave or there was a lab mishap. I've gone down the rabbit hole on this issue. Here are some interesting links https://scholar.google.com/scholar?q=R01A…

I thought you misrepresented the linked paper - as it was clearly about checking some cross-immunity and not recombining genes - but then I found out deeper in the abstract:

""" Since SHC014 could not be success fully isolated, a recombinant virus (rWIV1-SHC014S) was constructed based on the WIV1 backbone with the replacement of SHC014S gene, as described previously (Zengetal.,2016). The S sequence of SHC014 was amplified with primer pair (F-SHC014-Bsa I, 5′-AGTGGTCTCAACGAA-CATGAAATTGTTAGTTTTAGTTTTTGCTAC-3′ and R-SHC014-Bsa I, 5′-TCAGGTCTCAGTTCGTTTATGTG-TAATGTAATTTGACACCCTTG-3′), digested with BsaI, and inserted into an artificial bacterial chromosome along with the other viral cDNA fragments."""

Re: The origin of Covid: Did people or nature open Pandora’s box?

#319

Post by koheripbal »

followtheplot wrote: post #294

"... proponents of lab escape can explain all the available facts about SARS2 considerably more easily than can those who favor natural emergence." "The natural emergence theory battles a bristling array of implausibilities." This is a fantastic article, but amazingly almost all of it is year-old news. Most of this was known in March 2020, and nearly all of it by the end of 2020. How does it take so long for the trut…

Unfortunately, the reality is that we have no new data on the origin of covid-19.

No on-the-ground analysis has been allowed in China.

Re: The origin of Covid: Did people or nature open Pandora’s box?

#320

Post by neonological »

Jeema101 wrote: post #275
uvesten wrote: post #251

I think most people are confused because of CCP’s successful disinformation campaign, and also out of fear of being seen as prejudiced. The fact is that an epidemic with a corona virus (never before or since seen in the wild) with a peculiarly efficient ability to infect humans started in the _only city in the world with a lab where gain-of-function experiments on corona viruses_ is located. Just apply occam’s razor,…

It could be that you're confusing cause and effect, though. How do we know that the virus (or a precursor) wasn't already circulating in China, and was simply detected in Wuhan because of the fact that there are experts in coronaviruses who reside there? (Also I'm not entirely sure your statement about the gain of function research is correct. A Google search doesn't seem to provide any evidence one way or another.)

Covid was discovered in Wuhan by an eye doctor who died. Experts of corona viruses did not "discover" the virus, rather other people in the same vicinity did. The hospitals where regular doctors work discovered it.

The virus was location tracked to the wet market which is Right next to this virology lab.

Now correlation does not equal causation. But correlation and common sense is strong evidence for causation.

Chemo therapy is correlated with cancer deaths. It does not mean chemo causes cancer. The common sense does not match up, but it does for covid and it is highly unwise not to consider this lab as the causative source of the pandemic.

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