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The origin of Covid: Did people or nature open Pandora’s box?

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Re: The origin of Covid: Did people or nature open Pandora’s box?

#131

Post by astrange »

strogonoff wrote: post #129
DoreenMichele wrote: post #124

I don't really think it matters a whole lot whether it jumped species or was created in a lab. I think the issue is that there are nearly 8 billion people on the planet and that fact has somehow fundamentally changed how disease spreads and mutates. We need to be figuring out how to deal with that. Wondering where it came from is mostly neither here nor there. We aren't going to magically stop doing lab experiments i…

The issue with COVID is the precedent of attempts of trying to identify the origin of this new disease being sabotaged for seemingly political reasons (and with no obvious repercussions). It seems intuitive that knowing the origin of the virus (sample escaping a lab or pure nature) could help prevent similar cases in the future or deal with them more efficiently. Is my intuition wrong here?

Even if it's a natural sample that escaped a lab, cleaning up the lab doesn't necessarily help anything because it's not the actual reservoir of the virus.

Re: The origin of Covid: Did people or nature open Pandora’s box?

#132

Post by Pepe1vo »

ximeng wrote: post #122
novaRom wrote: post #66

There is an interesting peer reviewed paper published last month with analysis of existing facts about the origin of covid-19. A part from their conclusion: More than a year after the initial documented cases in Wuhan, the source of SARS-CoV-2 has yet to be identified, and the search for a direct or intermediate host in nature has been so far unsuccessful. The low binding affinity of SARS-CoV-2 to bat ACE2 studied to…

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S187350612... Here is a paper that states that the furin cleavage site appears naturally in a number of viruses. I looked into these lab origin theories for the furin cleavage site last year. The problem with it being a laboratory insertion was that although performing an insertion is relatively easy once you know what to insert, generally it’s beyond current science…

From the OP, it appears that scientists knew exactly where to insert a furin cleavage site:

>“Since 1992 the virology community has known that the one sure way to make a virus deadlier is to give it a furin cleavage site at the S1/S2 junction in the laboratory,” writes Steven Quay, a biotech entrepreneur interested in the origins of SARS2.

Re: The origin of Covid: Did people or nature open Pandora’s box?

#133

Post by adrianb »

verbify wrote: post #121
seymore_12 wrote: post #87

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"a leading world center for research on coronaviruses" presumes some form of uniqueness amongst potential other similar facilities

Presumably they specialised in coronaviruses because of the proximity to a bat population with coronaviruses, making sample gathering much easier? Are there other areas with significant coronavirus hosts? Are there other labs that specialise in coronaviruses to the same extent? The two seem linked to me, although I have no background in this area. So we'd a priori expect coronavirus to originate in the area with coro…

It's been written everywhere that the horseshoe bats most likely to carry coronaviruses live in Yunnan province, more than 1000 km away. It's where the closest COVID relative was found as well.

Also while there are other species of bats near Wuhan, they are in hibernation in winter.

Re: The origin of Covid: Did people or nature open Pandora’s box?

#134

Post by DoreenMichele »

strogonoff wrote: post #129
DoreenMichele wrote: post #124

I don't really think it matters a whole lot whether it jumped species or was created in a lab. I think the issue is that there are nearly 8 billion people on the planet and that fact has somehow fundamentally changed how disease spreads and mutates. We need to be figuring out how to deal with that. Wondering where it came from is mostly neither here nor there. We aren't going to magically stop doing lab experiments i…

The issue with COVID is the precedent of attempts of trying to identify the origin of this new disease being sabotaged for seemingly political reasons (and with no obvious repercussions). It seems intuitive that knowing the origin of the virus (sample escaping a lab or pure nature) could help prevent similar cases in the future or deal with them more efficiently. Is my intuition wrong here?

When antibiotics were first discovered, the world spoke of "the end to disease." Now, we are actively breeding antibiotic resistant infections and having trouble coming with new treatment options for infections once thought to be easily treatable thanks to the miracles of modern medicine.

This strikes me as just the latest stage of that process (or the latest chapter in that story).

Re: The origin of Covid: Did people or nature open Pandora’s box?

#135

Post by closeparen »

strogonoff wrote: post #129
DoreenMichele wrote: post #124

I don't really think it matters a whole lot whether it jumped species or was created in a lab. I think the issue is that there are nearly 8 billion people on the planet and that fact has somehow fundamentally changed how disease spreads and mutates. We need to be figuring out how to deal with that. Wondering where it came from is mostly neither here nor there. We aren't going to magically stop doing lab experiments i…

The issue with COVID is the precedent of attempts of trying to identify the origin of this new disease being sabotaged for seemingly political reasons (and with no obvious repercussions). It seems intuitive that knowing the origin of the virus (sample escaping a lab or pure nature) could help prevent similar cases in the future or deal with them more efficiently. Is my intuition wrong here?

There's no novelty to or uncertainty about the risk of viruses entering the human population from nature. That's exactly as important to mitigate, whether or not it's what happened in this case.

If it turns out to have walked out of a lab, then perhaps it points to a need to harden containment. You can’t cancel virology, because we still need to deal with pathogens from nature.

Re: The origin of Covid: Did people or nature open Pandora’s box?

#136

Post by himinlomax »

seymore_12 wrote: post #61

If we apply Occam's razor [1] decision between "Wuhan, however, is home of the Wuhan Institute of Virology, a leading world center for research on coronaviruses" and "Wuhan, there is a wet market where under certain conditions virus can jump from bat to monkey to person" is relatively straightforward But then, we should probably also apply Hanlon's razor [2] "never attribute to malice that which is adequately explain…

There's no razor to apply, both hypothesis are plausible at this point based on available evidence and without any speculation whatsoever.

And still without any speculation, one of those hypothesis could potentially be confirmed if only the main suspect did let us look at the crime scene. In any criminal trial, said suspect would get a guilty verdict from the jury in minutes.

Re: The origin of Covid: Did people or nature open Pandora’s box?

#137

Post by astrange »

octoberfranklin wrote: post #130
thu2111 wrote: post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The article doesn't support the case for it being intentional. Negligence at best. One of the things Wade demonstrates is that China was most likely doing research on CoV viruses in ordinary labs with nothing more than gloves and a white lab coat. The standard photo of Dr Shi is of her in a pressurised bubble suit but that's bsl4 and virologists don't like working in those conditions because it slows them down. So th…

I don't believe the lab escape was even remotely deliberate; however: > the virus has no characteristics that would make for a good weapon of any kind. Quite the contrary. The virus clearly favors authoritarian societies whose citizens will let their government weld them into their apartments. Just look at the death rate in China compared to the US and Europe. The only free societies that have come out unscathed are…

I mean, the best way to survive SARS-CoV-2 appears to be "be South Korean". Africa and random Eastern European countries have also been doing okay.

Re: The origin of Covid: Did people or nature open Pandora’s box?

#138

Post by himinlomax »

DoreenMichele wrote: post #134
strogonoff wrote: post #129

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The issue with COVID is the precedent of attempts of trying to identify the origin of this new disease being sabotaged for seemingly political reasons (and with no obvious repercussions). It seems intuitive that knowing the origin of the virus (sample escaping a lab or pure nature) could help prevent similar cases in the future or deal with them more efficiently. Is my intuition wrong here?

When antibiotics were first discovered, the world spoke of "the end to disease." Now, we are actively breeding antibiotic resistant infections and having trouble coming with new treatment options for infections once thought to be easily treatable thanks to the miracles of modern medicine. This strikes me as just the latest stage of that process (or the latest chapter in that story).

You do realize that antibiotics have never been directly effective against viruses, don't you?

Re: The origin of Covid: Did people or nature open Pandora’s box?

#139

Post by DoreenMichele »

himinlomax wrote: post #138
DoreenMichele wrote: post #134

Earlier quoted context omitted.

When antibiotics were first discovered, the world spoke of "the end to disease." Now, we are actively breeding antibiotic resistant infections and having trouble coming with new treatment options for infections once thought to be easily treatable thanks to the miracles of modern medicine. This strikes me as just the latest stage of that process (or the latest chapter in that story).

You do realize that antibiotics have never been directly effective against viruses, don't you?

Yep.

Re: The origin of Covid: Did people or nature open Pandora’s box?

#140

Post by adriancr »

astrange wrote: post #131
strogonoff wrote: post #129

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The issue with COVID is the precedent of attempts of trying to identify the origin of this new disease being sabotaged for seemingly political reasons (and with no obvious repercussions). It seems intuitive that knowing the origin of the virus (sample escaping a lab or pure nature) could help prevent similar cases in the future or deal with them more efficiently. Is my intuition wrong here?

Even if it's a natural sample that escaped a lab, cleaning up the lab doesn't necessarily help anything because it's not the actual reservoir of the virus.

it helps avoid the issue in the future...

It would mean countries that have labs would either be forced to allow constant audits and reasonable regulations (such as don't have labs in cities) or face isolation.

It would also mean quite a heavy political response towards china if it indeed escaped a lab (which is why they're sabotaging everything even if it didn't...)

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