UFOs shows government competence as either surprisingly high or low • Hacker News Board

Re: UFOs shows government competence as either surprisingly high or low

#101

Post by mbg721 » Thu, May 06, 2021, 12:06 PM UTC

wccrawford wrote: post #69

TrispusAttucks wrote: post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is true when the other side is a physical equal and of a similar species battling for resources. I don't think this holds true when one side is far superior to the other, of a different species, and doesn't really require the same resources as the inferior species. Example: I'm not out to destroy the squirrels in my woods, even though occasionally they do something that inconveniences me, because they are not a…

It isn't always about actively attacking the lesser species. For instance, bees. We don't want to hurt bees. But we've certainly done a lot of stuff that's been harmful to bee populations. There are many other species that are endangered because of humans and their changing of the environment, too.

The Dilbert take of "Wanna play another game of Hide The Pellet?" comes to mind.

Re: UFOs shows government competence as either surprisingly high or low

#102

Post by saberdancer » Thu, May 06, 2021, 12:08 PM UTC

ThalesX wrote: post #10

tl;dr; just a story of how I saw a UFO when I was young, nothing actionable... I feel somewhat bad for sharing life stories on a technical forum, but here it goes. As a young boy, 5-ish, I was sleeping with my mother and father in the room, and my grandmother rushes in, all pale, shouting something which directly translates to "Flying body! Flying body!". I distinctly remember having nightmares afterward with flying…

Do you remember the weather? Were there low clouds? Are you on a hill or near a valley?

If it is just a silent incandescent circle it is possible that you saw light from a car or other similar object reflecting on a fog/cloud or maybe temperature difference in the air.

Re: UFOs shows government competence as either surprisingly high or low

#103

Post by mrfusion » Thu, May 06, 2021, 12:11 PM UTC

mjburgess wrote: post #96

mrfusion wrote: post #85

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You seem to ignore Von nuaman (sp) probes, generation ships, non carbon based life. And that’s before we consider that our understanding of physics may not be complete.

I didn't ignore them. It may be clearer to write all probabilities above as being conditioned on "our best knowledge of the universe". P(All intelligent life is organic | Our best knowldge) =~ 1 Who knows the actual P(All intelligent life is organic). My point is that OP seems profoundly ignorant of "the facts of the matter" as our best theories describe them. Such facts make D-AnythingOtherThanAliens vastly more lik…

I like your thinking but this still bothers me:

> P(All intelligent life is organic | Our best knowldge) =~ 1

Even looking at ourselves, we are somewhat close to AI and it’s a reasonable belief that we’ll have something smarter than us within a few decades. Why are non organic aliens so unlikely to you?

Re: UFOs shows government competence as either surprisingly high or low

#104

Post by tgflynn » Thu, May 06, 2021, 12:12 PM UTC

saberdancer wrote: post #100

tgflynn wrote: post #95

This article didn't really live up to my expectations based on the title. What I would say, based only on information that almost everyone should agree on (ie. public statements and a very small number of authenticated videos) is that there are three possibilities. 1. Surprising government incompetence This would be the case if all reported military encounters with UAP's could be explained by misinterpretations and m…

I don't agree with #1. Why would it be surprising government incompetence? Government is not one person with infinite knowledge, plenty of them are elected officials with questionable level of understanding of various phenomena. Most sightings can be easily explained with misinterpretations and mistakes just like Mick West shows. Recent number of videos (gimbal, tic tac, ...) are probably released to muddy the waters…

Because the government presumably has access to large numbers of highly competent individuals, some at least as smart as Mick West, who should have been able to conclude that all of these sightings amount to nothing, if that is indeed the case. They also presumably have access to far more data on the subject than West or anyone else.

Re: UFOs shows government competence as either surprisingly high or low

#105

Post by saberdancer » Thu, May 06, 2021, 12:12 PM UTC

layoutIfNeeded wrote: post #76

ThalesX wrote: post #10

tl;dr; just a story of how I saw a UFO when I was young, nothing actionable... I feel somewhat bad for sharing life stories on a technical forum, but here it goes. As a young boy, 5-ish, I was sleeping with my mother and father in the room, and my grandmother rushes in, all pale, shouting something which directly translates to "Flying body! Flying body!". I distinctly remember having nightmares afterward with flying…

Was it translucent? Maybe it was a circular beam of light from the local discoteque reflecting from the clouds :D

As a kid, I was in an astronomy group and knew the skies well.

First time I saw a discoteque lights in the sky, I was sure I am seeing an UFO. I noted down the time and place but realized since it was in the sky constantly that it can't really be an UFO. Later I learned it was just a reflector pointed to the sky.

I wouldn't be surprised if a similar effect but from car lights or plane lights could throw people off. Since it could be a one time event, it's hard to explain it.

Re: UFOs shows government competence as either surprisingly high or low

#106

Post by mrfusion » Thu, May 06, 2021, 12:13 PM UTC

Mediterraneo10 wrote: post #98

mrfusion wrote: post #85

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You seem to ignore Von nuaman (sp) probes, generation ships, non carbon based life. And that’s before we consider that our understanding of physics may not be complete.

Generation ships may not be possible, at least for biological lifeforms. Kim Stanley Robinson wrote his novel Aurora in large part to argue this.

I’d be curious what the argument is. They would certainly be able to resupply raw materials if needed. Just plan a stop at a promising star system.

Why wouldn’t a long lived nuclear power system provide the energy for food and life support?

Beyond that, even five or ten generations is enough to get somewhere at .1C.

Re: UFOs shows government competence as either surprisingly high or low

#107

Post by lm28469 » Thu, May 06, 2021, 12:16 PM UTC

mjburgess wrote: post #74

BoardsOfCanada wrote: post #56

So I'm reluctant to post this but here we go.. In this case it is most probably high competence. Coming out of WW2 it wasn't difficult to take national security extremely serious. I thought that there wasn't much to the crash(es) near Corona in 1947 but the witness testimonies are just very very convincing, I actually changed my mind after reading up on the subject recently (before I would have said I don't know anyt…

The speed of light essentially prohibits space travel. The fastest possible speed for any material object to travel at is incredibly slow compared to any meaningful distance. It is millenia just from the sun to the edge of our solar system, let alone to anything "near by". The universe is not the kind of place where living things can travel "between worlds". This is scifi -- and it is no coincidence UFO sightings pea…

> It is millenia just from the sun to the edge of our solar system

?

We sent two probes in the 70s and they're already out of our solar system, they're definitely going waaaay slower than the speed of light

https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-46502820

Re: UFOs shows government competence as either surprisingly high or low

#108

Post by ErikVandeWater » Thu, May 06, 2021, 12:17 PM UTC

wccrawford wrote: post #69

TrispusAttucks wrote: post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is true when the other side is a physical equal and of a similar species battling for resources. I don't think this holds true when one side is far superior to the other, of a different species, and doesn't really require the same resources as the inferior species. Example: I'm not out to destroy the squirrels in my woods, even though occasionally they do something that inconveniences me, because they are not a…

It isn't always about actively attacking the lesser species. For instance, bees. We don't want to hurt bees. But we've certainly done a lot of stuff that's been harmful to bee populations. There are many other species that are endangered because of humans and their changing of the environment, too.

We endanger bees largely because we occupy their spaces to live. It does not seem like aliens want to move in, if they are visiting already.

Re: UFOs shows government competence as either surprisingly high or low

#109

Post by tgflynn » Thu, May 06, 2021, 12:18 PM UTC

TeMPOraL wrote: post #97

tgflynn wrote: post #73

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Apply this to reports of something other than UFOs, like, say fairies, ghosts or angels. Fairies, ghosts and angels don't show up on radar or FLIR and the Inspector General of the DoD has never launched an investigation into how they have been handled by that department.

Are we talking about the three US military videos that surfaced in recent years? I've seen all of them clearly and thoroughly explained away. In one case, you could literally use the numbers on the recording and some middle-school level geometry skills to calculate that the tracked object is a bird. And it's quite easy to guess why these videos were released. They're technology demonstrators. The general public can t…

Mick West's explanation of the FLIR1 video (the one from the Nimitz incident), that it was an ordinary aircraft, makes zero sense because given the quantity and quality of situational awareness data available to the pilots who captured the video it would require an extraordinary degree of incompetence to make such a mistake.

I'm no expert on naval technology but given my limited understanding of carrier strike group operations this was my intuitive belief from the first time I heard this theory. Since then a number of knowledgeable people have confirmed that this explanation makes practically no sense.

Re: UFOs shows government competence as either surprisingly high or low

#110

Post by TrispusAttucks » Thu, May 06, 2021, 12:19 PM UTC

wccrawford wrote: post #69

TrispusAttucks wrote: post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is true when the other side is a physical equal and of a similar species battling for resources. I don't think this holds true when one side is far superior to the other, of a different species, and doesn't really require the same resources as the inferior species. Example: I'm not out to destroy the squirrels in my woods, even though occasionally they do something that inconveniences me, because they are not a…

It isn't always about actively attacking the lesser species. For instance, bees. We don't want to hurt bees. But we've certainly done a lot of stuff that's been harmful to bee populations. There are many other species that are endangered because of humans and their changing of the environment, too.

I agree.

But I don't think your example has any parallels too the parent discussion.

Unless an alien species is currently modifing the earth's atmosphere without our knowledge. It seems pretty apparent that we humans are the ones doing the modification.