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Why is India having a Covid-19 surge?

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Re: Why is India having a Covid-19 surge?

#81
For months a farmer protest has been going on against the government. None of the farmers were social distancing or told to be careful. It also didn't help when the opposition parties started putting doubt into peoples minds by calling the vaccine a "BJP vaccine" meaning many didn't want to take it.

https://m.economictimes.com/news/politics-and-nation/its-bjp...

Dirty when you politicise people's safety.

Re: Why is India having a Covid-19 surge?

#82

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Mahakumbh impact? Uttarakhand active Covid caseload jumped 1,800% in 25 days - https://www.newindianexpress.com/nation/2021/apr/27/mahakumb...

Uttarakhand maybe. But Bangalore has as many cases as UP.

Not just Uttrakhand. See this news from Madhya Pradesh - Madhya Pradesh: 99% 'Kumbh returnees' test positive for COVID-19; 22 pilgrims untraced - https://www.timesnownews.com/india/article/madhya-pradesh-99... ...

The Kumbh Mela is definitely a super-spreader. The increased case numbers in Karnataka can be attributed to the local body elections held there. Moreover, with around 8 months to go for election, UP is actually under-reporting and fudging the figures of its COVID cases.

Re: Why is India having a Covid-19 surge?

#83
post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well, if you look at a comparison graph of the countries directly adjoining India, the differences are pretty stark. https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explor...

That's the magnitude of new detected infections. Pakistan has conducted 1/4th tests per-capita compared to India. 1/6th for Bangladesh. So I don't think there's much to see there. I'm comparing the inflection points and curves on the graphs.

Tge inflection points for the latest outbreaks lag India and are quite probably due to cross-border leakage.

Re: Why is India having a Covid-19 surge?

#84
post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's the magnitude of new detected infections. Pakistan has conducted 1/4th tests per-capita compared to India. 1/6th for Bangladesh. So I don't think there's much to see there. I'm comparing the inflection points and curves on the graphs.

Tge inflection points for the latest outbreaks lag India and are quite probably due to cross-border leakage.

Cross-border leakage with Bangladesh? Possibly. With Pakistan? Hardly.

All of these countries require a recent negative test prior to arrival. The Central Asian countries show inflection at pretty much the same time, barring Uzbekistan which is a week late. However, India has a lot more relative traffic going on with Sri Lanka and they and Maldives, both South of India, inflected a whole month later.

Re: Why is India having a Covid-19 surge?

#85

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do you really buy into the excuse that somehow election rallies and kumbh did not increase the severity of the problem at hand ? Its Standard whataboutery spewed constantly by the ruling party. They just don't even want to own up to their mistakes and the PM is staying silent as he is expecting everyone to forget and move on to the next hot topic. The Central Government allocated covid related very critical projects(…

It seems more like elections and kumbh are standard phrases of opposition party. Cases are exploding in Bangalore. Do you know how far kumbh is to Bangalore. You are just trying to find a scapegoat, like how the RW where using Jamat last Year.

you really want to say that holding elections and kumbh didn't make the existing problem worst. As soon as the information of the new strain was received, a ban on international travel and increased restrictions should have ideally gotten things under control or just do anything about it. Instead we have the prime minister, instead of listening to the experts, declared victory over covid(yes this actually happened, twice) and went to campaign holding huge rallies(also boasted about the numbers on the twitter) with no covid protocol adherence[People in Political rallies in India are actually brought from the neighboring states, and are paid daily wages and it was done during the pandemic as well during the Bengal Elections as well & they must have also taken the virus back as well].

Anyways these aren't the only blunders the modi government has done, you can find a whole lot of information on the thoroughly incompetent supreme leader and his blunders with a single click quite easily. In case you belong to his fan-club, you would find every other media house(except the ones actually owned by the prominent right wingers) to be sold. (Anyone reading from US- Modi fan club members are very similar to the Trump Fan Club members and behave in the same manner as well)

Cases are exploding in Bangalore, because the city also had taken the restrictions lightly. I live in Bengaluru, and used to see good amount of traffic on the roads till the day lockdown was announced. A number of super spreader events in closed spaces such as colleges, marriages, cinemas where covid protocols weren't followed properly is also the reason mixed with the higher rate of spread of the new strain. This could have also been prevented for Bengaluru as well, if only the central government had taken some preventive action against the new information received. Instead we all know, what it chose to do.

Re: Why is India having a Covid-19 surge?

#86
post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

“Most of them don’t speak English?” That is so not true. English is compulsory in Indian schools and has been since partition. There are 125 million English speakers in India, second only to America. You will never find a shortage of people who speak English there, even in remote villages.

125 million english speakers is still around ~10% of the population right? So if ~90% don't speak English then saying "most" seems accurate.

[deleted]

Re: Why is India having a Covid-19 surge?

#87

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Do you know how far kumbh is to Bangalore. Do you know how far the province of Quebec is from Europe, Caribbean and Latin America, and US/Florida? Because that's where a few people went and caused an explosion of cases in March 2020: > The researchers found that as few as 247 spring break travellers were at the root of Quebec’s nearly 70,000 cases. The week off ended March 9th, and those who came back from abroad c…

There are more cases in city in Bangalore alone when compared to whole to UP(80Lakh pop vs 22cr). It seems double mutation strains in present in most cases in India. Which initially was seen in Mah. So i do assume it spread from human contact to eveywhere.

Number of cases in UP is highly unreliable, as the current State government is known to be obsessed with maintaining its image and for causing problems for anyone who raises voice against it. It didn't even spare people asking for SOS on twitter - https://scroll.in/latest/993484/up-fir-filed-against-man-who...

It is also the state, where the police recently took an oxygen cylinder from a patient for someone who was politically connected [Police wouldn't have done anything this severe, unless they were forced to do the same] (https://www.freepressjournal.in/india/twitter-furious-over-c...)

Re: Why is India having a Covid-19 surge?

#88

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As I understand it, the current refugee crisis at the American southern border has a large Covid-19 component. This report says that at least one facility has a 10% infection rate. At the current time, in my opinion, The American border can't keep out any pandemic if our neighbors have it. And vise versa.

How does that square with both Mexico and Canada having significantly milder outbreaks on average? Objectively, aren't we giving it to them and not the reverse?

Either way - an open border is rotten for pandemic containment.

Re: Why is India having a Covid-19 surge?

#89

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How does that square with both Mexico and Canada having significantly milder outbreaks on average? Objectively, aren't we giving it to them and not the reverse?

Either way - an open border is rotten for pandemic containment.

Your use of terms like "open border" tells me that you've been mislead. The US/Mexico border is, sure, hard to manage and there's significant traffic that can't be contained.

Estimates of total unauthorized border crossings run around a few hundred thousand a year. That's what has you so freaked out.

A quick google tells me that the state department issued NINE MILLION visas in 2018 (don't have more recent data, and obviously 2020 is a huge outlier for both legal and illegal border crossings).

You can argue about immigration and labor effects all you want (along with other, less savory cultural/nativist ideas if you swing that way). But as a disease control effect it's complete noise. Legal immigration by world travellers dwarfs it by more than an order of magnitude.

Don't put this on the immigrants. You guys shit on them enough, and this bit just isn't their fault. At all.

Re: Why is India having a Covid-19 surge?

#90

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Either way - an open border is rotten for pandemic containment.

Your use of terms like "open border" tells me that you've been mislead. The US/Mexico border is, sure, hard to manage and there's significant traffic that can't be contained. Estimates of total unauthorized border crossings run around a few hundred thousand a year. That's what has you so freaked out. A quick google tells me that the state department issued NINE MILLION visas in 2018 (don't have more recent data, and…

Thank you for reiterating and expounding on the details of the problem of a open border when it comes to pandemics.
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