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Reaching ‘Herd Immunity’ from Covid Is Unlikely in the U.S., Experts Now Believe

nytimes.com

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Re: Reaching ‘Herd Immunity’ from Covid Is Unlikely in the U.S., Experts Now Believe

#151

Post by Sohcahtoa82 »

kickout wrote: post #140
Sohcahtoa82 wrote: post #138

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You sure about that? From what I've seen, the experts have gladly admitted they were wrong. It's the politicians who refuse to go back.

I mean yes I am sure, lol. Kids (IMO) and schools should've been opened and outdoor activities (non-mass events) should be restriction-free _everywhere_ as the risks associated to those populations or activities are vanishingly small. But several states still have onerous (IMO) restrictions.

Yeah, sure, the kids are incredibly unlikely to die from COVID, but what about the grandma they hug when they get home from school? What about the teachers?

I agree on the outdoor activities thing, though. I go for a daily walk through trails behind my house, and I never bothered with a mask.

Re: Reaching ‘Herd Immunity’ from Covid Is Unlikely in the U.S., Experts Now Believe

#152

Post by rsynnott »

lol768 wrote: post #2

> Polls show that about 30 percent of the U.S. population is still reluctant to be vaccinated. That number is expected to improve but probably not enough. “It is theoretically possible that we could get to about 90 percent vaccination coverage, but not super likely, I would say,” said Marc Lipsitch, an epidemiologist at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health. This is really poor, positive vaccine sentiment in…

Antivax tendencies have become related to political identification in the US in a rather unusual way; I don't think this has really happened anywhere else. At the extreme, various polls show that about 50% of Republican men won't take the vaccine when offered. This is particularly dangerous because political identification in the US is highly regionalised, so there's a risk of pockets of permanently heavily under-vaccinated population.

Re: Reaching ‘Herd Immunity’ from Covid Is Unlikely in the U.S., Experts Now Believe

#153

Post by josephcsible »

Sohcahtoa82 wrote: post #120
CountDrewku wrote: post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>This is really poor, positive vaccine sentiment in the UK has increased to 94% (late March) since December 2020 and actual take-up in my area isn't far off (about 91%). That's almost 1 in 3 people in the US who are reluctant to get vaccinated. Blame the media and hypocritical politicians who talk out both sides of their mouths. You can't expect the citizens to want the vaccine while simultaneously doing sensationali…

> Even Fauci and the CDC to be promoting the idea that the vaccine isn't that effective. Get the vaccine! You still have to wear masks, social distance, and effectively stay locked down! This isn't because they don't trust the vaccines, it's because we haven't had enough time yet to figure out if vaccinated people can still actually spread the virus. So far , the data suggests no, but the CDC wants to play it safe.

> the CDC wants to play it safe

Isn't having a policy that significantly reduces the number of people who will take the vaccine the opposite of "playing it safe"?

Re: Reaching ‘Herd Immunity’ from Covid Is Unlikely in the U.S., Experts Now Believe

#154

Post by anonAndOn »

HarryHirsch wrote: post #118
anonAndOn wrote: post #116

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's controversial because teaching in person can be done safely as evidenced by thousands of private schools during the past school year. If teacher's unions were doing what's in the best interest for the kids, they would have largely returned to school at this point. However, it has become clear that what is best for the kids is second to what is comfortable for the teachers. If this obstruction to in-class instruc…

Schools are the main source of spread between households. Consider the experience from Israel, the disease appeared to be under control and on the way out, until they opened school. Understandable that any teacher wouldn't wish to bring it home.

And yet, the US only has ~320 million more people with thousands of private schools across the country that stayed open for in-class instruction this school year but no discernable pattern of causing outbreaks. Understandable how the anti-vaxxers and the teacher's unions are both opposed to empirical evidence.

Re: Reaching ‘Herd Immunity’ from Covid Is Unlikely in the U.S., Experts Now Believe

#155

Post by rsynnott »

CountDrewku wrote: post #55
lol768 wrote: post #2

> Polls show that about 30 percent of the U.S. population is still reluctant to be vaccinated. That number is expected to improve but probably not enough. “It is theoretically possible that we could get to about 90 percent vaccination coverage, but not super likely, I would say,” said Marc Lipsitch, an epidemiologist at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health. This is really poor, positive vaccine sentiment in…

>This is really poor, positive vaccine sentiment in the UK has increased to 94% (late March) since December 2020 and actual take-up in my area isn't far off (about 91%). That's almost 1 in 3 people in the US who are reluctant to get vaccinated. Blame the media and hypocritical politicians who talk out both sides of their mouths. You can't expect the citizens to want the vaccine while simultaneously doing sensationali…

> You can't expect the citizens to want the vaccine while simultaneously doing sensationalist stories on very rare side effects.

Only 6% of people in Ireland say they won't take the vaccine, despite both the media and government here making a _much_ bigger deal of the side effects (J&J is _still_ restricted to people over 50, and both it and AZ were temporarily withdrawn from use), so it's probably not that.

There is maybe an argument that the media shouldn't talk about side effects, but it's a very paternalistic one and likely to, if anything, increase distrust.

Re: Reaching ‘Herd Immunity’ from Covid Is Unlikely in the U.S., Experts Now Believe

#156

Post by arcticbull »

krona wrote: post #132
arcticbull wrote: post #115

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Luckily we know how vaccines work. There’s nothing particularly new about this one. Vaccines arent magic; you trigger an immune response by getting a part of the virus into your body. It’s a pretty understood process. So let me ask you instead, how many years would make you feel comfortable? Five? 10? 50? I prefer to rely on the wealth of existing information, and knowing the cost of inaction is much greater than act…

> How many years would make you feel comfortable? Five? 10? 50? How long do you plan on living? To give a vaccine to say, an 8 year old child, with no health concerns and excellent natural immunity to a disease (better than say, for seasonal flu), then it stands to reason that you would need so much data to show that the absolute risk reduction was greater than 0 (and not below 0), that the question is barely even wo…

I wasn't actually talking about children, however, while they themselves are not at elevated risk from COVID, children are little filth monsters who spread disease to everyone around them. The risk is they pass it on, and we are talking about aggregate population risk.

Nothing is risk-free, and demanding 80 years of data to know a vaccine has absolutely no long-term results when vaccine risk profiles are pretty well understood is not a reasonable ask.

Re: Reaching ‘Herd Immunity’ from Covid Is Unlikely in the U.S., Experts Now Believe

#157

Post by josephcsible »

Sohcahtoa82 wrote: post #151
kickout wrote: post #140

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I mean yes I am sure, lol. Kids (IMO) and schools should've been opened and outdoor activities (non-mass events) should be restriction-free _everywhere_ as the risks associated to those populations or activities are vanishingly small. But several states still have onerous (IMO) restrictions.

Yeah, sure, the kids are incredibly unlikely to die from COVID, but what about the grandma they hug when they get home from school? What about the teachers? I agree on the outdoor activities thing, though. I go for a daily walk through trails behind my house, and I never bothered with a mask.

> what about the grandma they hug when they get home from school?

Why not say "don't go to Grandma's house" instead of "don't go to school"? The former is way less disruptive.

> What about the teachers?

Most teachers aren't high-risk. Let the ones who are teach over Zoom or get paid leave.

Re: Reaching ‘Herd Immunity’ from Covid Is Unlikely in the U.S., Experts Now Believe

#158

Post by [deleted] »

distribot wrote: post #3
lol768 wrote: post #2

> Polls show that about 30 percent of the U.S. population is still reluctant to be vaccinated. That number is expected to improve but probably not enough. “It is theoretically possible that we could get to about 90 percent vaccination coverage, but not super likely, I would say,” said Marc Lipsitch, an epidemiologist at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health. This is really poor, positive vaccine sentiment in…

Don't people who've been infected count toward the herd immunity. That ~30% of Americans. I know there's some overlap but if we can get to 70% of people vaccinated I think we'd be really close, no?

[deleted]

Re: Reaching ‘Herd Immunity’ from Covid Is Unlikely in the U.S., Experts Now Believe

#159

Post by rsynnott »

_-david-_ wrote: post #16
lol768 wrote: post #2

> Polls show that about 30 percent of the U.S. population is still reluctant to be vaccinated. That number is expected to improve but probably not enough. “It is theoretically possible that we could get to about 90 percent vaccination coverage, but not super likely, I would say,” said Marc Lipsitch, an epidemiologist at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health. This is really poor, positive vaccine sentiment in…

>Is this an education problem? Is there not a consistent minimum science curriculum for K-12 which covers pathogens, treatments and the history of vaccination programmes? Are there other factors that are relevant? I think it is more complicated than just education. The general sentiment I hear from people is in the past we were told that once we get vaccinated we could return to normal. Now we are told we still need…

> The general sentiment I hear from people is in the past we were told that once we get vaccinated we could return to normal.

Possibly they misunderstood what 'we' meant. Once the population is vaccinated, things can largely go back to normal, but a vaccinated _individual_ should not.

Re: Reaching ‘Herd Immunity’ from Covid Is Unlikely in the U.S., Experts Now Believe

#160

Post by giardini »

thu2111 wrote: post #107
arcticbull wrote: post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Lockdown worked fine in New Zealand it not? The thing is, it’s something you have to commit to. You can’t just half ass it.

Was it lockdowns or was it border closures or was it the geographical location of New Zealand or was it chance? This is the whole problem with the pro-lockdown position. It's turned into an exercise in cherry picking. We don't need to do this, we have global datasets and those can be analysed to try and detect correlations between policies and outcomes. When this analysis has been done, there are no correlations. Her…

thu2111 says >"Some countries have now accrued more public debt than after World War 2. At some point, even the most ardent true believers in this policy have to accept that if entire continents can take measures as extreme as they have done and get no results whatsoever then it is a failed policy."Wow! This is the best takeaway of this discussion and possibly one of the most quotable statements (and posts) ever made concerning the Covid-19 lockdowns. My hat is off to you, sir.
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