Reaching ‘Herd Immunity’ from Covid Is Unlikely in the U.S., Experts Now Believe • Hacker News Board

Re: Reaching ‘Herd Immunity’ from Covid Is Unlikely in the U.S., Experts Now Believe

#121

Post by floxy » Mon, May 03, 2021, 6:43 PM UTC

aphextron wrote: post #104

alibarber wrote: post #54

Honest question - I'm after good articles to read about this: Why is it that we have been able to eliminate things like Polio and Smallpox, yet there's doubt about COVID? They were both viruses, must have mutated, were fairly easily spread and it must have taken longer to vaccinate enough people given the advances in logistics and vaccine tech we now have. What's the fundamental difference?

>"Why is it that we have been able to eliminate things like Polio and Smallpox, yet there's doubt about COVID?" COVID is incredibly more contagious, but also far less deadly than those. The real sinister thing about this virus is that 20 people can pass it to each other without anyone knowing, then all of the sudden someone's grandma is dying from a hug. It's just so much more contagious than anything any living pers…

>No one in general had ever experienced literally just being in a room with someone completely asymptomatic leading to transmission of a deadly virus.

Anyone have updated data on asymptomatic transmission? I was thinking that wasn't really a thing:

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-19802-w

Re: Reaching ‘Herd Immunity’ from Covid Is Unlikely in the U.S., Experts Now Believe

#122

Post by josephcsible » Mon, May 03, 2021, 6:46 PM UTC

philsnow wrote: post #73

josephcsible wrote: post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

For point 3, that's true of the Johnson and Johnson vaccine, but not the Pfizer or Moderna vaccines. Also, what about this reason? "I don't think the vaccine is effective, since we still have to wear masks and socially distance after getting it, so I'm not going to take the risk that it might be unsafe."

It's been a while since I looked into it but IIRC both Pfizer and Moderna used HEK 293 during testing phases. There isn't a vaccine available that is completely free of participation, however remote, in the use of the HEK 293 stem cell line or similar.

Pfizer and Moderna only used cells from aborted babies to test their vaccines. Johnson and Johnson uses them to produce doses of their vaccine.

Re: Reaching ‘Herd Immunity’ from Covid Is Unlikely in the U.S., Experts Now Believe

#123

Post by rovolo » Mon, May 03, 2021, 6:46 PM UTC

godelski wrote: post #85

I think this problem is more complex than many talk about and it ends up just being fear based news. People aren't hesitant to get the vaccine because it might have Bill Gates microchips, they are hesitant because this was the fastest rolled out vaccine in human history (>3x faster than the second) and people don't trust the government. Their concerns aren't founded in science, but they are reasonable. So treating th…

I totally agree that many people aren't following the news closely and they'll probably eventually get vaccinated. However, I don't see what you're criticizing in the Nature article. They're pretty clearly distinguishing between herd immunity from infection vs from vaccination:

> In early October, a libertarian think tank and a small group of scientists released a document called the Great Barrington Declaration. In it, they call for a return to normal life for people at lower risk of severe COVID-19, to allow SARS-CoV-2 to spread to a sufficient level to give herd immunity.

> Typically, herd immunity is discussed as a desirable result of wide-scale vaccination programmes.

> Many researchers say pursuing herd immunity is a bad idea. “Attempting to reach herd immunity via targeted infections is simply ludicrous,” Andersen says. “In the US, probably one to two million people would die.”

Re: Reaching ‘Herd Immunity’ from Covid Is Unlikely in the U.S., Experts Now Believe

#124

Post by auiya » Mon, May 03, 2021, 6:47 PM UTC

lol768 wrote: post #2

> Polls show that about 30 percent of the U.S. population is still reluctant to be vaccinated. That number is expected to improve but probably not enough. “It is theoretically possible that we could get to about 90 percent vaccination coverage, but not super likely, I would say,” said Marc Lipsitch, an epidemiologist at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health. This is really poor, positive vaccine sentiment in…

> Is this an education problem?

Literally every problem we have in the US, stems from our piss-poor education. Every last one of them.

Re: Reaching ‘Herd Immunity’ from Covid Is Unlikely in the U.S., Experts Now Believe

#125

Post by auiya » Mon, May 03, 2021, 6:48 PM UTC

beisner wrote: post #20

lol768 wrote: post #2

> Polls show that about 30 percent of the U.S. population is still reluctant to be vaccinated. That number is expected to improve but probably not enough. “It is theoretically possible that we could get to about 90 percent vaccination coverage, but not super likely, I would say,” said Marc Lipsitch, an epidemiologist at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health. This is really poor, positive vaccine sentiment in…

It's not an education problem. It's an ideology problem. A huge fraction of the country has basically lost all faith in public and academic institutions. In these polarized times, when many leaders that institution-skeptics listen to decided to make COVID a political issue in the ongoing culture war, listening to public health recommendations (including masking, vaccination) is akin to "letting the other side win". E…

> It's not an education problem. It's an ideology problem.

Ideology is formed via education

Re: Reaching ‘Herd Immunity’ from Covid Is Unlikely in the U.S., Experts Now Believe

#126

Post by DanBC » Mon, May 03, 2021, 6:48 PM UTC

kickout wrote: post #62

MattGaiser wrote: post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> How it is possible we'll _never_ reach herd immunity? It does not circulate sufficiently but neither is a critical mass of vaccinated people reached due to vaccine reluctance.

My impression is they are moving the goal posts and saying _no_ level of vaccination is 'good enough for herd immunity'

No, they're saying there are differences if you get lots of people vaccinated quickly, or fewer people vaccinated slowly.

Slower and fewer vaccinations increases the chances of new strains developing, and increases the chances of strains that are less affected by vaccination.

Re: Reaching ‘Herd Immunity’ from Covid Is Unlikely in the U.S., Experts Now Believe

#127

Post by Sohcahtoa82 » Mon, May 03, 2021, 6:50 PM UTC

_-david-_ wrote: post #105

aphextron wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>People are losing faith in the scientists because of their ever changing statements. I'd say this perfectly illustrates the complete lack of understanding of how science works among the public. There is never one specific stance that will always be right and hold up to all scrutiny. It's just highly intelligent educated experts giving their best possible estimate based on current data. As the data evolves, so do the…

The issue with changing their statements is not so much that they changed their statements, but how certain they were with their original statements. Some of the scientists did not start their statements with stuff like "with the available data we believe". They made it sound like what they were saying was 100% determined. Anybody who disagreed (even if it is now the prevailing view) was called anti-science. It is no…

I wince thinking back to that interview with Fauci early in the pandemic when he explicitly told people that we didn't need to wear masks. That statement became a massive weapon in the hands of the anti-maskers.

The problem is, I'm not sure what Fauci could have said that would have been better. People are irrational, and he knew that if he recommended masks right away, then people would have begin hoarding them ASAP, and healthcare and other front-line workers would have been facing an even greater shortage.

You all remember the massive run on toilet paper and sanitation supplies last year when lockdowns began? The run on masks would have been just as bad if Fauci recommended them sooner rather than later.

Re: Reaching ‘Herd Immunity’ from Covid Is Unlikely in the U.S., Experts Now Believe

#128

Post by auiya » Mon, May 03, 2021, 6:53 PM UTC

neither_color wrote: post #21

lol768 wrote: post #2

> Polls show that about 30 percent of the U.S. population is still reluctant to be vaccinated. That number is expected to improve but probably not enough. “It is theoretically possible that we could get to about 90 percent vaccination coverage, but not super likely, I would say,” said Marc Lipsitch, an epidemiologist at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health. This is really poor, positive vaccine sentiment in…

>Is this an education problem? Is there not a consistent minimum science curriculum for K-12 which covers pathogens, treatments and the history of vaccination programmes? Are there other factors that are relevant? It's not an education problem and while most comments I predict will consider that the main factor, I disagree and consider it a condescending take. We all learn about Louis Pasteur and successful eradicati…

> It's not an education problem [..] it's a cultural/philosophical problem.

Culture and philosophy are shaped via education.

Re: Reaching ‘Herd Immunity’ from Covid Is Unlikely in the U.S., Experts Now Believe

#129

Post by Sohcahtoa82 » Mon, May 03, 2021, 6:54 PM UTC

cltby wrote: post #97

aphextron wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>People are losing faith in the scientists because of their ever changing statements. I'd say this perfectly illustrates the complete lack of understanding of how science works among the public. There is never one specific stance that will always be right and hold up to all scrutiny. It's just highly intelligent educated experts giving their best possible estimate based on current data. As the data evolves, so do the…

The data didn't evolve, though. The only thing that ever changed was the political winds. Throughout this whole pandemic, experts have bent over backwards to defend and justify political decisions--and most humiliatingly, decisions that _directly_ contravene their prior advice. Two examples: - Experts encouraged the George Floyd protests because "racism is the real virus," despite their prior anti-protest stance. Giv…

Politicians don't make decisions based on the opinions of experts, they make them based on what they think is going to win them the next election.

Yeah, public health authorities might be saying we need to be careful with reopening schools, but if 70% (This is an example number pulled out of my ass, not an actual poll number) of the population wants schools to reopen because parents are tired of their kids being home all day, then dammit the governor is going to reopen the schools, expert testimony be damned.

Re: Reaching ‘Herd Immunity’ from Covid Is Unlikely in the U.S., Experts Now Believe

#130

Post by Sohcahtoa82 » Mon, May 03, 2021, 6:57 PM UTC

2lwxxtj wrote: post #19

lol768 wrote: post #2

> Polls show that about 30 percent of the U.S. population is still reluctant to be vaccinated. That number is expected to improve but probably not enough. “It is theoretically possible that we could get to about 90 percent vaccination coverage, but not super likely, I would say,” said Marc Lipsitch, an epidemiologist at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health. This is really poor, positive vaccine sentiment in…

People in the US rightly don't trust the pharmaceutical industry or the government. They may not be able to pinpoint why, but when they look around they see that every year the people around them are more obese and have more chronic health conditions. They may not be able to tie those things together consciously, but it leaves the powerful subconscious feeling that the government and pharmaceutical industries do not…

I do think it's a bit ironic to choose not to get a vaccine because you don't trust Big Pharma.

Because the alternative to the vaccine is putting yourself at risk for a deadly virus which can cost a lot of money to treat, which would give more money to Big Pharma. Generally, vaccines aren't in the best interests of pharmaceutical companies.