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Reaching ‘Herd Immunity’ from Covid Is Unlikely in the U.S., Experts Now Believe

nytimes.com

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Re: Reaching ‘Herd Immunity’ from Covid Is Unlikely in the U.S., Experts Now Believe

#91

Post by passwordreset »

neither_color wrote: post #21
lol768 wrote: post #2

> Polls show that about 30 percent of the U.S. population is still reluctant to be vaccinated. That number is expected to improve but probably not enough. “It is theoretically possible that we could get to about 90 percent vaccination coverage, but not super likely, I would say,” said Marc Lipsitch, an epidemiologist at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health. This is really poor, positive vaccine sentiment in…

>Is this an education problem? Is there not a consistent minimum science curriculum for K-12 which covers pathogens, treatments and the history of vaccination programmes? Are there other factors that are relevant? It's not an education problem and while most comments I predict will consider that the main factor, I disagree and consider it a condescending take. We all learn about Louis Pasteur and successful eradicati…

> This turned a health debate into a struggle for rights: "We're all in this together" vs "99% let me take my chances".

If that really is the case, then it IS an education problem, except they failed their civics class. Civics is a balance of civil rights and civic responsibilities, specifically, the responsibility that you have to your fellow countrymen. Not killing your fellow countrymen falls high on that list of responsibilities.

Re: Reaching ‘Herd Immunity’ from Covid Is Unlikely in the U.S., Experts Now Believe

#92

Post by devonbleak »

kickout wrote: post #40

This story is also an example of the conflicting stories we get out of leaders? How it is possible we'll _never_ reach herd immunity? They were saying we needed that just last summer! That loss of trust in giving us correct/congruent information from leaders is absolutely hurting America right now

It's not conflicting. New evidence changes science-based understanding and decisions. This is at the core of how science works. It's impossible to know everything about everything immediately so you make the best decisions you can based on the information you do have.

Herd immunity is still the holy grail of dealing with an infectious disease like this. If new evidence says we're not going to reach it, for whatever reason, then you have to shift tactics to something else that may not be as ideal but is more likely achievable.

While I understand that messages/information changing can cause some genuine confusion, the concept that once information is delivered it must never change and if it does then you can't trust any of it is just a wedge used to sow mistrust. While it may be comforting to have that sort of authority/consistency, anybody who tells you they know everything about everything immediately is lying to you.

Re: Reaching ‘Herd Immunity’ from Covid Is Unlikely in the U.S., Experts Now Believe

#93

Post by Spartan-S63 »

arcticbull wrote: post #64
thu2111 wrote: post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think it was "institution skeptics" who made COVID a political issue. How many months did it take before academics were claiming that anti-lockdown protests were dangerous and must not happen but BLM protests were to be encouraged, because "systemic racism" is a public health issue? Not many. How many other academics condemned this blatant politicization of science? Not enough. Lockdowns don't work: US states…

Lockdown worked fine in New Zealand it not? The thing is, it’s something you have to commit to. You can’t just half ass it.

This, so much this. Sure businesses were shut down or significantly restricted in the US, but people commingled anyway. You shut down one vector, but everyone flocked to other, unsanctioned ones. We failed at our own attempts because we didn't commit.

Conversely, places like Sweden didn't require significant legal restrictions because they have a sense of societal responsibility. When leaders told them to restrict their movement, they listened. They didn't do it as perfectly as if it were enforced or ordered, but they listened (and probably better than Americans listened).

Re: Reaching ‘Herd Immunity’ from Covid Is Unlikely in the U.S., Experts Now Believe

#94

Post by maxerickson »

kickout wrote: post #51
minikites wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You have it exactly right, this is just the current excuse. The excuse will change as time goes on.

I mean...kind of like the excuses we need masks ad infinitum, regardless of vaccine status? Both points are valid IMO

It was timid, but the CDC has in fact released relaxed mask guidance for vaccinated people.

Re: Reaching ‘Herd Immunity’ from Covid Is Unlikely in the U.S., Experts Now Believe

#95

Post by godelski »

grillvogel wrote: post #45

my wife has a phd in drug development and is concerned about the speed in which this was released and the lack of long term safety trials. is she antivax/antiscience?

Of course not. But we have to work with the data we have. Which currently says that the vaccine is safer than the disease. Considering hundreds of millions in many different countries have the vaccines it is fairly reasonable to believe that it is safe, considering that we're not seeing deaths associated with it. You always have to do cost/risk balancing. But if a hundred countries are all taking the same action and there's millions of people having already been "experimented" on (some for about a year, i.e. doctors who got the vaccines first) it reasons that there isn't much risk. Countries don't agree that much on anything, not even a pandemic response.

Re: Reaching ‘Herd Immunity’ from Covid Is Unlikely in the U.S., Experts Now Believe

#96

Post by pgrote »

grillvogel wrote: post #45

my wife has a phd in drug development and is concerned about the speed in which this was released and the lack of long term safety trials. is she antivax/antiscience?

>lack of long term safety trials. is she antivax/antiscience?

I don't think so, but in our cultural climate those who bring up real, substantive questions about the process can be brought up. It is a shame since the MRNA vaccines are new for such widespread usage.

For me it came down to risk/reward. A year of being a hermit and the impact on my family tipped the scales.

When I had both doses and the time after I had no reaction. Others in my family had some sort of reaction even if it was just a sore arm. Does that mean it didn't work? No idea and there isn't a long term study to look at to learn from.

Re: Reaching ‘Herd Immunity’ from Covid Is Unlikely in the U.S., Experts Now Believe

#97

Post by cltby »

aphextron wrote: post #32
_-david-_ wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Is this an education problem? Is there not a consistent minimum science curriculum for K-12 which covers pathogens, treatments and the history of vaccination programmes? Are there other factors that are relevant? I think it is more complicated than just education. The general sentiment I hear from people is in the past we were told that once we get vaccinated we could return to normal. Now we are told we still need…

>People are losing faith in the scientists because of their ever changing statements. I'd say this perfectly illustrates the complete lack of understanding of how science works among the public. There is never one specific stance that will always be right and hold up to all scrutiny. It's just highly intelligent educated experts giving their best possible estimate based on current data. As the data evolves, so do the…

The data didn't evolve, though. The only thing that ever changed was the political winds. Throughout this whole pandemic, experts have bent over backwards to defend and justify political decisions--and most humiliatingly, decisions that _directly_ contravene their prior advice. Two examples:

- Experts encouraged the George Floyd protests because "racism is the real virus," despite their prior anti-protest stance. Given the apparent magnitude and seriousness of the problem, it's curious they only noticed in May 2020.

- In Washington, there was a big battle around opening schools. Public health authorities insisted that this was a verrryyy fraught process that needed to be handled veeerrrryyy slowly and veerryyy carefully. In the middle of this, Gov. Jay Inslee suddenly demanded that the schools be opened in a matter of weeks. The authorities weren't perturbed in the least: after all, they suddenly claimed, "we've known all along that the risk to children is very manageable".

Most people understand that mistakes happen, and they are generally forgiving when those mistakes are acknowledged and corrected. But it's plain to see that the sort of "expertise" that's being held up is deeply and pathologically broken.

Re: Reaching ‘Herd Immunity’ from Covid Is Unlikely in the U.S., Experts Now Believe

#98

Post by maxerickson »

CountDrewku wrote: post #55
lol768 wrote: post #2

> Polls show that about 30 percent of the U.S. population is still reluctant to be vaccinated. That number is expected to improve but probably not enough. “It is theoretically possible that we could get to about 90 percent vaccination coverage, but not super likely, I would say,” said Marc Lipsitch, an epidemiologist at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health. This is really poor, positive vaccine sentiment in…

>This is really poor, positive vaccine sentiment in the UK has increased to 94% (late March) since December 2020 and actual take-up in my area isn't far off (about 91%). That's almost 1 in 3 people in the US who are reluctant to get vaccinated. Blame the media and hypocritical politicians who talk out both sides of their mouths. You can't expect the citizens to want the vaccine while simultaneously doing sensationali…

Maintaining other interventions reduces the overshoot and makes the pandemic go away faster, it isn't an assessment of the vaccines.

(Vaccinated people wearing masks doesn't make a huge difference, but it reduces friction for places like stores to just require masks instead of trying to communicate and enforce a mixed policy)

Re: Reaching ‘Herd Immunity’ from Covid Is Unlikely in the U.S., Experts Now Believe

#99

Post by [deleted] »

aphextron wrote: post #32
_-david-_ wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Is this an education problem? Is there not a consistent minimum science curriculum for K-12 which covers pathogens, treatments and the history of vaccination programmes? Are there other factors that are relevant? I think it is more complicated than just education. The general sentiment I hear from people is in the past we were told that once we get vaccinated we could return to normal. Now we are told we still need…

>People are losing faith in the scientists because of their ever changing statements. I'd say this perfectly illustrates the complete lack of understanding of how science works among the public. There is never one specific stance that will always be right and hold up to all scrutiny. It's just highly intelligent educated experts giving their best possible estimate based on current data. As the data evolves, so do the…

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