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Flu has disappeared worldwide during the Covid pandemic

scientificamerican.com

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Re: Flu has disappeared worldwide during the Covid pandemic

#791

Post by kaba0 »

nickalaso wrote: post #772
rconti wrote: post #556

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I remember reading a conspiracy theory back in ~ April 2020 that said "what happened to the flu" / "why are flu cases down so sharply?" It was literally so stupid that it took me a minute or two to understand that the implication was that conspiracy theorists think flu cases were being categorized as covid.

Could you explain why this is "literally so stupid" when this appears to be what is happening? If lockdown measures, social distancing, mask wearing, etc. were the true cause of the massive reduction in flu cases, we would expect to also see that countries and US states that failed to enact measures would be reporting high flu numbers to the WHO. This doesn't appear to be happening. Instead, "the drop-off in flu numb…

> we would expect to also see that countries and US states that failed to enact measures would be reporting high flu numbers to the WHO.

I don’t think so. Even without government policies in place, people become much much more vary of hygiene - that alone could account for a serious drop in new flu cases. The other factor as others mentioned is that someone with a weaker immune system who would have a pretty bad case of flu, had now a much higher chance of getting covid instead (due to covid quickly overtaking the number of cases due to its higher R number), so in a way covid being more infectious, sort of suffocated the flu.

Re: Flu has disappeared worldwide during the Covid pandemic

#792

Post by kaba0 »

DoingIsLearning wrote: post #268
Majromax wrote: post #237

This should not come as a surprise, and it was largely predictable from the outset. The flu has a base reproduction number (R0) less than 2 ( https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/2020/12/07/covid-19... ). Covid has an R0 in the vicinity of 2.5 ( https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scena... ). In the meantime, public health measures like masking and distancing will work against both viruses. If…

Non virologist naive question, if we apply all these measures targeting SARS-COV2 and it also creates a massive negative pressure on flu viruses, is there a risk that this applies an adaptive pressure to select for a future uber infectious new flu strain?

Chance of mutation depends mostly on the number of infected —- applying antibiotics is problematic because it is a repeated process, and the net amount of cell divisions is huge with iterating killing and “letting go”. With effective and strict measures, the pandemic could quickly die out with basically minimal chance of a super-mutation.

The current some half of the world somewhat protected, while other parts are breeding grounds is a pretty bad state to be at, with a potential mutation turning up and endangering the protected people as well again.

Re: Flu has disappeared worldwide during the Covid pandemic

#793

Post by kaba0 »

collyw wrote: post #439
daanlo wrote: post #352

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My layman understanding is that it doesn‘t work that way. Less spread = less chance of mutation = less chance of uber infectious new flu strain.

It's potentially the opposite. Say you have a population of 1000. If one person infects ten others. Then its going to be 3 generations before 1000 are infected and full immunity is reached. We go for a suppression strategy instead.If 1 person infects 1 other person (as we seem to be trying to achieve with corna) it is going to take 1000 generations before full immunity is achieved. There is going to be far more chanc…

Your second paragraph assumes that a suppressed virus will not go extinct. If the suppression is effective, with eg. vaccines it can be done with quickly, with no higher chance of mutations.

Re: Flu has disappeared worldwide during the Covid pandemic

#794

Post by [deleted] »

tripletao wrote: post #149
ibraheemdev wrote: post #5

Just speculating here, but maybe because of false positives where flu cases get labeled as Covid? I've heard that PCR tests were not meant to be used for large scale virus detection. EDIT: The PCR test quote was fact checked and deemed to be misleading, but it still sounds like they are not very accurate [0]. [0]: https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-factcheck-pcr-idUSKBN2442...

The test positivity in lightly-affected areas is very small, for example https://covidlive.com.au/report/positive-test-rate A Lancet article cited below references a paper that estimates much worse specificity of PCR tests for SARS-CoV-2 based on the specificity of tests for other RNA viruses (original SARS, MERS, influenza, etc.): https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.26.20080911v... But why would anyone d…

[deleted]

Re: Flu has disappeared worldwide during the Covid pandemic

#795

Post by theclap »

tripletao wrote: post #414
silicon2401 wrote: post #368

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's an ad-hominem argument. You might as well say Isaac Newton also believed in astrology, so we should throw out all his work on math and physics. As a non-religious person, astrology and religion are no different to me, so then you might as well throw out any knowledge innovated by like 99% of people who have ever lived. I have no stake or attachment to Kary Mullis, whether he's wrong or right is irrelevant to m…

> That's an ad-hominem argument. And yours was an argument from authority. You gave no explanation of or support for Mullis's arguments, and you gave no reason to believe his conclusion except a positive aspect of his reputation (i.e., his discovery of PCR in the first place). In that case, negative aspects of his reputation (i.e., the fluorescent raccoon; or, closer to the domain in question, his belief on HIV and A…

You might find this interesting, an article from 2007 about PCR tests being used to confirm a whooping cough epidemic at a hospital:

https://archive.ph/ugiWQ

I wonder if the same mistakes are being repeated.

Re: Flu has disappeared worldwide during the Covid pandemic

#796

Post by tripletao »

theclap wrote: post #795
tripletao wrote: post #414

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> That's an ad-hominem argument. And yours was an argument from authority. You gave no explanation of or support for Mullis's arguments, and you gave no reason to believe his conclusion except a positive aspect of his reputation (i.e., his discovery of PCR in the first place). In that case, negative aspects of his reputation (i.e., the fluorescent raccoon; or, closer to the domain in question, his belief on HIV and A…

You might find this interesting, an article from 2007 about PCR tests being used to confirm a whooping cough epidemic at a hospital: https://archive.ph/ugiWQ I wonder if the same mistakes are being repeated.

From the article:

> These tests, called “home brews,” are not commercially available, and there are no good estimates of their error rates.

So this is about clinical use of an uncharacterized test. Why is that relevant to the test for SARS-CoV-2, which has probably now been run more times than any other PCR test in history, including on large populations with extremely low test positivity (e.g., most of Australia, 99.9%)?

Seriously, engage with the evidence. There are still zero replies to my detailed explanation linked above. Did you read it? What did you think?

Re: Flu has disappeared worldwide during the Covid pandemic

#797

Post by theclap »

tripletao wrote: post #796
theclap wrote: post #795

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You might find this interesting, an article from 2007 about PCR tests being used to confirm a whooping cough epidemic at a hospital: https://archive.ph/ugiWQ I wonder if the same mistakes are being repeated.

From the article: > These tests, called “home brews,” are not commercially available, and there are no good estimates of their error rates. So this is about clinical use of an uncharacterized test. Why is that relevant to the test for SARS-CoV-2, which has probably now been run more times than any other PCR test in history, including on large populations with extremely low test positivity (e.g., most of Australia, 99…

You didn't read the article. You stopped reading right at that sentence didn't you?

Re: Flu has disappeared worldwide during the Covid pandemic

#798

Post by tripletao »

theclap wrote: post #797
tripletao wrote: post #796

Earlier quoted context omitted.

From the article: > These tests, called “home brews,” are not commercially available, and there are no good estimates of their error rates. So this is about clinical use of an uncharacterized test. Why is that relevant to the test for SARS-CoV-2, which has probably now been run more times than any other PCR test in history, including on large populations with extremely low test positivity (e.g., most of Australia, 99…

You didn't read the article. You stopped reading right at that sentence didn't you?

I read to the end of the article. They even developed a better (though still not perfect) PCR test that excluded most of the initial false positives!

> Its scientists also did additional P.C.R. tests on samples from 116 of the 134 people who were thought to have whooping cough. Only one P.C.R. was positive, but other tests did not show that that person was infected with pertussis bacteria.

It's absolutely possible to develop bad PCR tests, and that's why it's necessary to characterize them on large populations to determine their specificity and sensitivity. It seems the Dartmouth team didn't do that before using the test clinically, and that was their problem; but the SARS-CoV-2 tests are the most intensively-studied PCR tests in human history, and the evidence I've seen looks quite good.

So again, did you read my detailed explanation? Do you understand it? If you're just looking to knowingly spread baseless doubt, there's far more effective places to do it. So why not engage with the actual science?

Re: Flu has disappeared worldwide during the Covid pandemic

#799

Post by theclap »

tripletao wrote: post #798
theclap wrote: post #797

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You didn't read the article. You stopped reading right at that sentence didn't you?

I read to the end of the article. They even developed a better (though still not perfect) PCR test that excluded most of the initial false positives! > Its scientists also did additional P.C.R. tests on samples from 116 of the 134 people who were thought to have whooping cough. Only one P.C.R. was positive, but other tests did not show that that person was infected with pertussis bacteria. It's absolutely possible to…

I did read your linked explanation, I did not get a chance to read your sources however but I will when I get a chance. You don't need to be so condescending. Are you in the medical field by chance? Anyhow my concerns around the virus aren't so much with the tests but with the lack of data on the long term effects of the new vaccines. Since I am not in an elderly age group, I am reluctant to take the vaccine without at least waiting a few years to observe if there are any other effects.

Re: Flu has disappeared worldwide during the Covid pandemic

#800

Post by tripletao »

theclap wrote: post #799
tripletao wrote: post #798

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I read to the end of the article. They even developed a better (though still not perfect) PCR test that excluded most of the initial false positives! > Its scientists also did additional P.C.R. tests on samples from 116 of the 134 people who were thought to have whooping cough. Only one P.C.R. was positive, but other tests did not show that that person was infected with pertussis bacteria. It's absolutely possible to…

I did read your linked explanation, I did not get a chance to read your sources however but I will when I get a chance. You don't need to be so condescending. Are you in the medical field by chance? Anyhow my concerns around the virus aren't so much with the tests but with the lack of data on the long term effects of the new vaccines. Since I am not in an elderly age group, I am reluctant to take the vaccine without…

Please do read the sources. My background is math/CS, though I've done statistical work for life sciences. Evidence like the excess mortality requires zero medical knowledge though, just the ability to count deaths and compare that count year over year. Whatever the PCR test is doing, PCR-confirmed COVID deaths track reasonably well with excess deaths in regions hard enough hit for the excess deaths to be statistically distinguishable:

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2778361

In fact excess mortality usually exceeds COVID deaths, suggesting there are more false negative PCR tests (at least on dead/dying people) than false positive.

The vaccine is an entirely different topic. There's certainly a higher risk that the SARS-CoV-2 vaccine will have unforeseen long-term effects than for other, longer-studied vaccines; but there's also a higher risk that SARS-CoV-2 itself will have unforeseen long-term effects than for other, longer-studied diseases. I'm not elderly, but I've placed my bet on the vaccine.

I don't mean to be condescending. I'm just frustrated that I've spent considerable time explaining why I believe the PCR test for SARS-CoV-2 is almost always accurate, and received zero engagement with any of that. The evidence is there for anyone willing to invest the effort to understand it.

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