Why is India having a Covid-19 surge? • Hacker News Board

Re: Why is India having a Covid-19 surge?

#61

Post by sinyug » Sat, May 01, 2021, 6:54 PM UTC

webmobdev wrote: post #59

sinyug wrote: post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> As an indian, this Pandemic is an eye opener to me on the devastating impact that flawed government policies have on its citizen. We have to eliminate our socialistic approach to planning. If you lock the private sector out and expect that everything will be handled by the government bureaucracy, then nothing will get done. There are no right-wing parties in India. Even Modi and the BJP are saffron socialists. They…

If you lock the private sector out and expect that everything will be handled by the government bureaucracy, then nothing will get done. Agree to a certain extent - that is why it is appalling that the government didn't listen to appeals of the vaccine manufacturers to give them funds to upgrade and expand their facilities to manufacture more vaccines. Nobody in India would have grudged if the government gave them so…

> Nobody in India would have grudged if the government gave them some public money to do so!

Well, somebody would have. People are complaining about states being charged $4-5/dose while foreign vaccines are being sold for up to $30/dose.

Also, according to this report,[1] Adar Poonawalla of SII has fled to London with his family because he is being intimidated by prominent people (including many Chief Ministers) and has also been receiving death threats.

This is what happens to the private sector in India.

1. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GLEDQ7FtXus

Re: Why is India having a Covid-19 surge?

#62

Post by webmobdev » Sat, May 01, 2021, 7:09 PM UTC

sinyug wrote: post #61

webmobdev wrote: post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you lock the private sector out and expect that everything will be handled by the government bureaucracy, then nothing will get done. Agree to a certain extent - that is why it is appalling that the government didn't listen to appeals of the vaccine manufacturers to give them funds to upgrade and expand their facilities to manufacture more vaccines. Nobody in India would have grudged if the government gave them so…

> Nobody in India would have grudged if the government gave them some public money to do so! Well, somebody would have. People are complaining about states being charged $4-5/dose while foreign vaccines are being sold for up to $30/dose. Also, according to this report,[1] Adar Poonawalla of SII has fled to London with his family because he is being intimidated by prominent people (including many Chief Ministers) and…

   Adar Poonawalla of SII has fled to London with his family because he is being intimidated by prominent people (including many Chief Ministers)

Again, a side-effect of the flawed vaccine policy of the government.

So far, the central government was directly procuring the vaccine, and distributing it to everyone. Last month, it suddenly changed the policy and told all the states to procure it themselves. This has resulted in differential pricing, and the all the states are now forced to negotiate and procure the vaccines from the manufacturers directly. So all the politicians are now harassing the CEO of the vaccine manufacturers for better deals .. https://www.telegraphindia.com/india/serum-chief-flies-to-uk... ...

Luckily the Supreme Court has stepped in and is now questioning the government on its revised vaccine policy, especially on the pricing mechanism.

Re: Why is India having a Covid-19 surge?

#63

Post by sinyug » Sat, May 01, 2021, 7:24 PM UTC

webmobdev wrote: post #62

sinyug wrote: post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Nobody in India would have grudged if the government gave them some public money to do so! Well, somebody would have. People are complaining about states being charged $4-5/dose while foreign vaccines are being sold for up to $30/dose. Also, according to this report,[1] Adar Poonawalla of SII has fled to London with his family because he is being intimidated by prominent people (including many Chief Ministers) and…

Adar Poonawalla of SII has fled to London with his family because he is being intimidated by prominent people (including many Chief Ministers) Again, a side-effect of the flawed vaccine policy of the government. So far, the central government was directly procuring the vaccine, and distributing it to everyone. Last month, it suddenly changed the policy and told all the states to procure it themselves. This has result…

> Again, a side-effect of the flawed vaccine policy of the government.

Was very predictable. Center was acquiring vaccines and distributing it among states who were then vaccinating vulnerable sections of the population. Politicians started questioning the policy and demanded more control. Once the Center gave them that control, all hell broke loose.

I can guarantee that this abuse will continue and Ella will be next. The media is 100% responsible for targeting these companies over everything from patents to pricing. And while Modi managed to deflect criticism and dump the issue into the hands of clueless state governments, it is going to hurt India very badly.

> Luckily the Supreme Court has stepped in and is now questioning the government on its revised vaccine policy, especially on the pricing mechanism.

Nothing good will come out of it. The SC is not answerable to the people as it is not a democratically elected body. And it does not have executive experience either. I don't know why all these courts keep interfering in every single issue all the time.

Re: Why is India having a Covid-19 surge?

#64

Post by lambdaba » Sat, May 01, 2021, 7:51 PM UTC

hesarenu wrote: post #46

lambdaba wrote: post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If people would spend more time outside in summer, destressing, getting vitamin D, improving their immunity etc. then we can expect the current cycle to end as respiratory infectious diseases tend to. The coercive measures by govs are pushing in the opposite direction.

But is there any evidence that spending time outside, vitamin d etc reduces covid. April and May are peak summer time in India. Most of the states are open not in lockdown mode, but cases are growing rapidly.

Haven't people changed their behavior though? Avoiding going outside, having fewer diversity in social interactions but longer durations, and indoors.

There is definitely evidence for vitamin D, it's odd this is still not yet widely acknowledged, I can't say I reviewed the research myself but credible people have and have been spreading the information. I've definitely heard of some governments having taken measures for prevention with vitamin D, but there are also some results if administered early enough after infection.

Vitamin D is essential for immune system function, but the wider picture is more complex with high vitamin D levels also correlating with better nutrition (diets higher in cholesterol, which is essential for hormone synthesis - is generally lower in people having severe forms), better immune system function (infections deplete vitamin D), and even activity levels (spending more time outside).

Re: Why is India having a Covid-19 surge?

#65

Post by dang » Sat, May 01, 2021, 8:39 PM UTC

Recent and related:

India’s second wave of covid-19 feels nothing like its first - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=27003228 - May 2021 (316 comments)

How India went from a ray of hope to world record for most Covid cases in a day - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=26916374 - April 2021 (122 comments)

India's massive COVID surge puzzles scientists - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=26898889 - April 2021 (152 comments)

India’s second wave - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=26886829 - April 2021 (450 comments)

Re: Why is India having a Covid-19 surge?

#66

Post by stefan_ » Sat, May 01, 2021, 9:06 PM UTC

lambdaba wrote: post #64

hesarenu wrote: post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But is there any evidence that spending time outside, vitamin d etc reduces covid. April and May are peak summer time in India. Most of the states are open not in lockdown mode, but cases are growing rapidly.

Haven't people changed their behavior though? Avoiding going outside, having fewer diversity in social interactions but longer durations, and indoors. There is definitely evidence for vitamin D, it's odd this is still not yet widely acknowledged, I can't say I reviewed the research myself but credible people have and have been spreading the information. I've definitely heard of some governments having taken measures…

There are working vaccines but we still have Vitamin D clowns on HN. Can we just ban this already?

Re: Why is India having a Covid-19 surge?

#67

Post by tzs » Sat, May 01, 2021, 9:49 PM UTC

hesarenu wrote: post #52

bhanu423 wrote: post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do you really buy into the excuse that somehow election rallies and kumbh did not increase the severity of the problem at hand ? Its Standard whataboutery spewed constantly by the ruling party. They just don't even want to own up to their mistakes and the PM is staying silent as he is expecting everyone to forget and move on to the next hot topic. The Central Government allocated covid related very critical projects(…

It seems more like elections and kumbh are standard phrases of opposition party. Cases are exploding in Bangalore. Do you know how far kumbh is to Bangalore. You are just trying to find a scapegoat, like how the RW where using Jamat last Year.

Kumbh Mela is attended by far more than just people who live near where it occurs. People from all across India travel to it, participate, and then go back home.

Re: Why is India having a Covid-19 surge?

#68

Post by Dma54rhs » Sat, May 01, 2021, 9:49 PM UTC

hesarenu wrote: post #28

kshacker wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

While the first lockdown may not have been popular, the top 3 reasons for the second wave were 1) muddled message from the top with massive election rallies and no one wearing masks, 2) the religious kumbh congregation was allowed to proceed as normal while a similar (in comparison, a smaller muslim congregation was demonized last year to the extent of jailing some folks), and 3) total lack of preparation of vaccines…

Why this latching onto election rallies and kumbh. Cases are exploding in Karnataka. No election or Kumbh here. Same for Maharastra.

Did they happen in fresh air? The science from USA already tells us they have no big impact on the numbers.

Re: Why is India having a Covid-19 surge?

#69

Post by webmobdev » Sat, May 01, 2021, 10:06 PM UTC

sinyug wrote: post #63

webmobdev wrote: post #62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Adar Poonawalla of SII has fled to London with his family because he is being intimidated by prominent people (including many Chief Ministers) Again, a side-effect of the flawed vaccine policy of the government. So far, the central government was directly procuring the vaccine, and distributing it to everyone. Last month, it suddenly changed the policy and told all the states to procure it themselves. This has result…

> Again, a side-effect of the flawed vaccine policy of the government. Was very predictable. Center was acquiring vaccines and distributing it among states who were then vaccinating vulnerable sections of the population. Politicians started questioning the policy and demanded more control. Once the Center gave them that control, all hell broke loose. I can guarantee that this abuse will continue and Ella will be next…

    Politicians started questioning the policy and demanded more control.

Let's consider the criticism for the vaccine policy by the opposition:

- Vaccine makers were requesting government grants to expand facilities but were provided limited to no resource till last month.

- Exporting vaccines was made a priority over vaccinating indians.

- When indians realised there was a shortage of vaccine and started highlighting these issues, and the government realised that it wouldn't be able to meet the vaccine demands, they suddenly do a complete U-turn of their vaccine policy - the centre backs out completely out of price-fixing and procurement of vaccines without setting any framework in place.

- Thus, completely abdicating their responsibility, they now expect each state government to haggle and negotiate the price directly, draw up individual contracts and get the vaccines.

The opposition did their job in highlighting the deficiencies. Instead of listening and fixing the issues, the government deliberately passed the buck to the state government with a revised policy. It is clear they did it in such a manner (without any framework) so that they could transfer any associated political blame.

    The SC is not answerable to the people ... it does not have executive experience either.

Agreed that courts should be quite careful. But, in general, good judges don't make decisions arbitrarily. They listen to the executive, they listen to the critics, they listen to the state governments, and they also listen to the experts.

That said, some stupid executive decisions can be over ruled with common sense and some have past precedents to follow. For example, it is very stupid to make people register for a vaccine - poor and uneducated people will not be able to do so and will be susceptible to corruption due to this unnecessary step. Common sense. We have one of the largest successful immunisation programs in the world and have successfully vaccinated a large number of people in the past. So we have past precedents on how to vaccinate our people. The vaccines should be free for everyone - common sense and past precedent. And so on.

Re: Why is India having a Covid-19 surge?

#70

Post by webmobdev » Sat, May 01, 2021, 10:20 PM UTC

hesarenu wrote: post #52

bhanu423 wrote: post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do you really buy into the excuse that somehow election rallies and kumbh did not increase the severity of the problem at hand ? Its Standard whataboutery spewed constantly by the ruling party. They just don't even want to own up to their mistakes and the PM is staying silent as he is expecting everyone to forget and move on to the next hot topic. The Central Government allocated covid related very critical projects(…

It seems more like elections and kumbh are standard phrases of opposition party. Cases are exploding in Bangalore. Do you know how far kumbh is to Bangalore. You are just trying to find a scapegoat, like how the RW where using Jamat last Year.

Mahakumbh impact? Uttarakhand active Covid caseload jumped 1,800% in 25 days - https://www.newindianexpress.com/nation/2021/apr/27/mahakumb...