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Flu has disappeared worldwide during the Covid pandemic

scientificamerican.com

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Re: Flu has disappeared worldwide during the Covid pandemic

#671
post #586
post #568

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Interesting that this was getting downvoted. Obviously relates to what the poster above was saying about it being "politically incorrect." We may disagree on what the science implies, but downvoting someone for sharing research means that people are refusing to listen to anything that disagrees with their preconceived notions. (I guess perhaps the implicit assumption is that anyone pushing articles that show that kid…

To be fair, that implicit assumption is pretty strong. There is an absurd bias to push kids back in schools so parents can get back to work. Still, your points stand that there are some good studies showing kids are not necessarily the major spreaders. It is somewhat surprising to me, but it is data.

There is an absurd bias to push kids back in schools so parents can get back to work.

Why is that absurd? Millions of Americans (mostly women) have had to work less or leave their jobs entirely in order to take care of their children, which is a major hit to both their finances and careers. It's a huge cost.

It is somewhat surprising to me

It shouldn't be if the media had been doing their jobs, but due to either incompetence or bias they haven't. People really don't seem to realize that schools have been open in large parts of the US (and many other countries) for months, and it hasn't led to mass infections of students or teachers or parents.

Re: Flu has disappeared worldwide during the Covid pandemic

#672
post #586

Earlier quoted context omitted.

To be fair, that implicit assumption is pretty strong. There is an absurd bias to push kids back in schools so parents can get back to work. Still, your points stand that there are some good studies showing kids are not necessarily the major spreaders. It is somewhat surprising to me, but it is data.

There is an absurd bias to push kids back in schools so parents can get back to work. Why is that absurd? Millions of Americans (mostly women) have had to work less or leave their jobs entirely in order to take care of their children, which is a major hit to both their finances and careers. It's a huge cost. It is somewhat surprising to me It shouldn't be if the media had been doing their jobs, but due to either inco…

I'm far enough on the liberal end that a living income makes sense to me. Raising your kids is a job. And it is of value to society that one can do that well. Juggling low paying jobs is not beneficial.

Re: Flu has disappeared worldwide during the Covid pandemic

#673
post #586

Earlier quoted context omitted.

To be fair, that implicit assumption is pretty strong. There is an absurd bias to push kids back in schools so parents can get back to work. Still, your points stand that there are some good studies showing kids are not necessarily the major spreaders. It is somewhat surprising to me, but it is data.

I work from home. My wife stays at home and takes care of young kids. We sent our 6 yo back to (in person) school because computer school was a bad idea. I have a friend who teaches high school. He is SO relieved to be ending computer teaching. I think so people want in person school so parents can work, but plenty of people want in person school because it IS better.

I empathize. We had to switch to home schooling because we couldn't keep home internet.

I also think in person is better than remote. I can still think the bias to make it look safe to send kids back to school feels forced.

Re: Flu has disappeared worldwide during the Covid pandemic

#674

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Unfortunately if you take crowded subways or buses, or have meetings in small rooms with coworkers who have young children in school, none of that matters. You still WILL get sick. It doesn't matter how much you wash your hands, or cook food at home. Plenty of germs are airborne and linger. Unless you stay at home all day long, you're going to get sick. Now some people have much more effective immune systems than oth…

Not if you wear a mask and wash your hands immediately afterwards. I haven’t been in an in person meeting since COVID started, but I’m wearing a mask to the next one I attend.

In Covid's case, wearing a mask only reduces the chance of you contracting the virus by 2%. The real reduction comes from the other person wearing a mask ~20% reduction).

Thus, you can't simply choose to keep wearing masks and get significant reductions in getting sick. Everyone would have to keep wearing masks, which is very unlikely.

Similarly, before the pandemic it was totally normal to go to parties with a cold or respiratory illness. I sincerely hope people keep the behavioral shift of not going to any events when sick, but humans are selfish and I bet they will largely return to their selfish ways

Re: Flu has disappeared worldwide during the Covid pandemic

#675

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The steady state is exactly 1, which is like balancing a pencil on its point. At exactly one, it's indeterminate; you could see a subexponential growth or decay. With no exponential terms remaining, lower-order terms that are ordinarily hidden by exponential growth become the dominant observables. (Since epidemic spread is also random, you're much more likely to see the stochastic terms show up in the overall stati…

We're not talking about a single flu season, effectively we're talking about skipping an entire flu season. Influenza is pretty promiscuous. In normal conditions, very few people aren't exposed to it: either their existing immune resistance (vaccinated or otherwise) is up to the job, or it isn't. Mutation is therefore the primary driver of flu, year upon year. This is why vaccines are continually reformulated for a b…

> The overwhelming majority of transmission of SARS-CoV-2 is via large respiratory droplets as conclusively demonstrated by contact tracing studies, cluster investigations, the lack of infection spread in hospital settings with universal masking protocols and the low estimated R.

https://www.pennmedicine.org/updates/blogs/penn-physician-bl...

> The principal mode by which people are infected with SARS-CoV-2 (the virus that causes COVID-19) is through exposure to respiratory droplets carrying infectious virus.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/science/science-br...

From what I can tell, you may have your flu/covid mixed up. Covid is spread through respiratory droplets, the spread of which is reduced by wearing a mask.

Re: Flu has disappeared worldwide during the Covid pandemic

#676

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think your anecdata proves anything but your own experience. 1. I eat out a lot, including junk food every now and then. 2. Of course I hand wash, but i would not say "before touching face" per-se, but as often as you'd normally expect (restroom breaks, before preparing food and/or eating, after coming from outside). 3. I don't really run away from sick people. I simply am indifferent. I still never get sick,…

Yes well, I would hope if you've learned nothing during this pandemic it's that there is no one-size-fits-all immune system. Some 20 year olds are dying from COVID, others are barely noticing they have symptoms. All suggestions are de facto "anecdata". What works for me, may not work for you. I used to get "food poisoning" once a year or so, but haven't ever since I stopped eating out. That you are more resilient to…

[deleted]

Re: Flu has disappeared worldwide during the Covid pandemic

#678
post #366

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Last spring COVID was managing to achieve rapid spread at the same time that the flu season naturally ended. Despite the challenges in measuring R0 for both, this is pretty direct evidence that R0 is higher for COVID than for the flu.

R0 is not static. As people become immune to the current strains and the virus mutates, people will still have partial immunity to the new strains. Some people will be fully immune depending on their antibody response and the mutations. Next year it is entirely possible that the R0 of covid drops below influenza. If you introduced influenza to a naive population (i.e. native americans) you would get massive death. >

R0 is indeed static. It's R(t), the reproduction rate at time t, that is not static.

Re: Flu has disappeared worldwide during the Covid pandemic

#680
post #346

Wow, I always knew Flu was seasonal, but never realized how extreme that was. Looking at the North America graph, basically after May, the flu almost entirely disappears until the end of summer. Roughly 3 orders of magnitude difference between the peak and summer time. I would've thought it was closer to maybe 10x.

I wonder if it's because folks who were feeling sick got tested for Covid first, and upon a negative Covid result, assumed (likely correctly) that it was just flu and didn't get a flu test

Did you reply to the wrong person? Your reply has nothing to do with what I said. I was referring the pre-covid times, the first graph shown shows that Flu went to near 0 in the summer every year, even before covid.
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