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Flu has disappeared worldwide during the Covid pandemic

scientificamerican.com

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Re: Flu has disappeared worldwide during the Covid pandemic

#581
post #438

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I agree that leaping to conclusions isn't science. It doesn't get past the hypothesis stage and needs proper study. That said, if the massive reduction in flu cases isn't a result of some or all of our Covid efforts, it'd be a hell of a coincidence.

> That said, if the massive reduction in flu cases isn't a result of some or all of our Covid efforts, it'd be a hell of a coincidence. Mmmm...I wouldn't go that far. Like I said, my current preferred theory involves schools, but other plausible theories involve things like mutual inhibition: infection with one virus somehow interferes with infection by the other. We have some evidence of this happening in the past.…

more generally, it's likely due to greater (indoor) distancing, of which school closures is a subset. the slight differences in transmission characteristics between flu and covid (also represented as differential r0) likely makes flu relatively more susceptible to reduction by distancing.

and distancing is a first-order mitigation that overwhelms the effects of inferior/ineffective mitigations like cleaning, sanitizing, mask-wearing, extra ventilation, etc. those secondary mitigations can make more of a difference when we want to pack it in, like at a movie theater, but otherwise they don't do much because those circumstances are relatively rare.

folks just don't want to accept such a simple answer because it means there's not much to hang their anxiety on, and that cognitive dissonance is unacceptable, as it always is.

Re: Flu has disappeared worldwide during the Covid pandemic

#582

I was just commenting to a co-worker my entire family hasn't been sick since the pandemic started. That is very unusual for a family with young children. No flu, no stomach viruses, absolutely nothing for more than a year now. Thankfully no covid-19 either.

This year was a great experiment in person hygiene. It was the healthiest I have ever been for a full year, no colds, stomach bugs, anything. I'm not sure which practices I'll continue, but its definitely shown me that I have wayyyy more control over my health than I previously thought. Curious what others think are the most effective continued practices. Seems like social distancing isn't super reasonable, but maybe…

I will certainly continue to wear a mask in crowded places like public transportation and concerts. This has been eye-opening for me in terms of virus transmission vectors. I kind of fell into the trap of "no one around here does it, so I'm not going to do it either."

Re: Flu has disappeared worldwide during the Covid pandemic

#583
post #271

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> This should not come as a surprise, and it was largely predictable from the outset....the flu has a base reproduction number (R0) less than 2....Covid has an R0 in the vicinity of 2.5....In the meantime, public health measures like masking and distancing will work against both viruses....there's really no need for conspiracy theorizing. Assuming that this is due to "masking and distancing" and the small difference…

Where I live in Canada schools never really closed and we are seeing the same thing.

Most of the Europe didn't close schools either or very short periods when numbers where out of the roof. School closure is American teachers union thing really, vast majority of the countries do whatever possible to send kids to school as it takes the priority above everything.

Re: Flu has disappeared worldwide during the Covid pandemic

#584

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Unlike Covid, kids are a significant vector of spread for influenza Kids are significant spreaders of both influenza and Covid (after school reopenings, in many countries kids become one of the top sources of inter-household Covid spread). They just tend to have mild or absent Covid symptoms and didn’t require regular testing for work etc., and therefore did not get consistently tested in most parts of the world. I…

Actually, what you're saying is untrue. The overwhelming evidence shows that children spread COVID less than adults do. My favorite is this: https://www.nejm.org/doi/pdf/10.1056/NEJMoa2006100?articleTo... The study isolated SARS-CoV-2 samples from every positive case, sequenced genome of virus, and tracked the mutation patterns. So, that will avoid a lot of the errors that improper qPCR usage can result in. First thi…

Focusing the "child" cutoff at ten seems dubious. Why not set it at an age that includes school extra curricular activities? :(

Re: Flu has disappeared worldwide during the Covid pandemic

#586
post #568

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Actually, what you're saying is untrue. The overwhelming evidence shows that children spread COVID less than adults do. My favorite is this: https://www.nejm.org/doi/pdf/10.1056/NEJMoa2006100?articleTo... The study isolated SARS-CoV-2 samples from every positive case, sequenced genome of virus, and tracked the mutation patterns. So, that will avoid a lot of the errors that improper qPCR usage can result in. First thi…

Interesting that this was getting downvoted. Obviously relates to what the poster above was saying about it being "politically incorrect." We may disagree on what the science implies, but downvoting someone for sharing research means that people are refusing to listen to anything that disagrees with their preconceived notions. (I guess perhaps the implicit assumption is that anyone pushing articles that show that kid…

To be fair, that implicit assumption is pretty strong. There is an absurd bias to push kids back in schools so parents can get back to work.

Still, your points stand that there are some good studies showing kids are not necessarily the major spreaders. It is somewhat surprising to me, but it is data.

Re: Flu has disappeared worldwide during the Covid pandemic

#587
In my experience, lots of people treat the flu like it was 'no big deal', and will happily go to work (or be sent to school) to share with the other children.

Covid sounded a lot scarier to them, so in the process of avoiding it, they accidentally did the right thing. Thus the drop in flu cases.

Re: Flu has disappeared worldwide during the Covid pandemic

#588
I live in Melbourne, where most restrictions have been relaxed due to low case numbers. I and a good number of friends have all caught a cold in the past couple of weeks. I'm curious to know why isolation measures haven't worked on the common cold as well as they have on influenza.

Re: Flu has disappeared worldwide during the Covid pandemic

#589

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How can you explain people getting covid but not the flu when nothing changed when places started opening up? It sounds more like poor data reporting more than anything else and I will take that to my grave.

> ...and I will take that to my grave "When the Facts Change, I Change My Mind. What Do You Do, Sir?"

Real answer? Ask how much faith you have in your religion of “facts”.

Re: Flu has disappeared worldwide during the Covid pandemic

#590

I was just commenting to a co-worker my entire family hasn't been sick since the pandemic started. That is very unusual for a family with young children. No flu, no stomach viruses, absolutely nothing for more than a year now. Thankfully no covid-19 either.

Makes me wonder if this throws our immune systems into peril as we aren’t keeping up with the latest “updates”.
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