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Flu has disappeared worldwide during the Covid pandemic

scientificamerican.com

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Re: Flu has disappeared worldwide during the Covid pandemic

#331

Post by Majromax »

havewetsalt wrote: post #324
Majromax wrote: post #237

This should not come as a surprise, and it was largely predictable from the outset. The flu has a base reproduction number (R0) less than 2 ( https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/2020/12/07/covid-19... ). Covid has an R0 in the vicinity of 2.5 ( https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scena... ). In the meantime, public health measures like masking and distancing will work against both viruses. If…

It's conspiracy theory by definition if it falls outside the official narrative. So even science can be a conspiracy theory. In fact, real science has a tendency to be viewed (by non-scientists, it should go without saying) as conspiracy theory insofar as it challenges the official narrative, and invokes complicated explanations, rather than a nice simple answer.

No, a conspiracy theory "by definition" requires collaboration between several human agents.

In this overall thread, the idea that the "disappearance" of flu is driven by political desire to label all respiratory illnesses as covid cases would be an example of a conspiracy theory.

Another commenter brings up the idea of 'viral interference.' This is not an example of a conspiracy theory, but I do not give the idea great credence on Occam's Razor grounds.

Re: Flu has disappeared worldwide during the Covid pandemic

#332

Post by tryonenow »

Majromax wrote: post #237

This should not come as a surprise, and it was largely predictable from the outset. The flu has a base reproduction number (R0) less than 2 ( https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/2020/12/07/covid-19... ). Covid has an R0 in the vicinity of 2.5 ( https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scena... ). In the meantime, public health measures like masking and distancing will work against both viruses. If…

>In the meantime, public health measures like masking and distancing will work against both viruses

That's not necessarily true. COVID appears to be aerosolized, whereas typical flu is not. That means that masks will work to catch viral flu particles in ejected fluids (talking, coughing, sneezing, etc), but the same cannot be assumed for COVID, given that viral particles are orders of magnitude smaller than pores in cloth and surgical masks. And this assertion is supported by at least two studies (one Danish I believe) which showed negligible effect of mask wearing on COVID spread.

Re: Flu has disappeared worldwide during the Covid pandemic

#334

Post by incrudible »

rubicon33 wrote: post #318
aarondia wrote: post #300

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This year was a great experiment in person hygiene. It was the healthiest I have ever been for a full year, no colds, stomach bugs, anything. I'm not sure which practices I'll continue, but its definitely shown me that I have wayyyy more control over my health than I previously thought. Curious what others think are the most effective continued practices. Seems like social distancing isn't super reasonable, but maybe…

You can do a LOT. I haven't been sick once in 6+ years because I do the following: 1) Almost never eat out. Home cooked meals that I've prepped / washed. This was single handedly the biggest factor that completely removed "getting sick" from my life. 2) Hand wash before touching face, or food. 3) Avoid sick people. If I hear someone coughing or sneezing, I move away from them. Call me a germ freak, I don't care, I've…

I've done the same except for not eating out, same result. I regularly eat at places that perhaps are not the pinnacle of hygiene. Doesn't make a difference.

My theory is that your mouth is already a cesspool where bacteria colonies fight it all out. It makes sense, because "safe" meal preparation is unnatural. Your nose/eyes are far more vulnerable.

Re: Flu has disappeared worldwide during the Covid pandemic

#335

Post by andreygrehov »

ceejayoz wrote: post #319
andreygrehov wrote: post #299

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I didn't know the article was retracted. Are there credible papers confirming that masks do help? Edit: also, quoting Reuters is fine. However, quoting Forbes is not. Forbes is a trash publication, getting published there costs a few hundred bucks.

The Forbes assertions are trivially confirmed. https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/15325026/ https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/18434036/ Studies demonstrating mask efficacy are just as easily Googleable. You might not want to be throwing around "trash publication" slams here, given your cite.

I'm confused. Those are all different authors.

I'm saying "trash publication" because I had experience working with Forbes. Once again, one can publish at Forbes whatever the hell they want. It costs a few hundred bucks.

Re: Flu has disappeared worldwide during the Covid pandemic

#336

Post by ygra »

allturtles wrote: post #330
rubicon33 wrote: post #318

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You can do a LOT. I haven't been sick once in 6+ years because I do the following: 1) Almost never eat out. Home cooked meals that I've prepped / washed. This was single handedly the biggest factor that completely removed "getting sick" from my life. 2) Hand wash before touching face, or food. 3) Avoid sick people. If I hear someone coughing or sneezing, I move away from them. Call me a germ freak, I don't care, I've…

4) Don't have children.

... that are in kindergarten / school.

But yes, the lockdown a year ago was interesting in that I wasn't sick once. But when everyone is at home and you can't see anyone, there's no one to get sick from either.

Re: Flu has disappeared worldwide during the Covid pandemic

#337

Post by jjk166 »

nerdponx wrote: post #266
majormajor wrote: post #228

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A bias towards testing for Covid wouldn't explain fewer cases of the flu unless those cases of the flu were coming back as Covid falsely instead of so further diagnosis was stopped. If you have a bad enough flue to seek treatment, then once you get that Covid test and it says "negative", you would move on to the next step for treatment. (Consistent with past years - nobody was getting flu tested just cause they had a…

How is this assessment affected by limited testing capacity and generally overwhelmed medical services?

Maybe in the first few weeks there were some cases assumed to be covid that could not be confirmed, but testing capacity quickly caught up.

Re: Flu has disappeared worldwide during the Covid pandemic

#338

Post by wrycoder »

gorbachev wrote: post #262

I was just commenting to a co-worker my entire family hasn't been sick since the pandemic started. That is very unusual for a family with young children. No flu, no stomach viruses, absolutely nothing for more than a year now. Thankfully no covid-19 either.

I’m retired. I basically changed only two things in my weekly routine: I stopped going to a weekly meeting of about fifteen old men, and I stopped going to the local hairdresser, which is a small group of young women, most of whom have young children, and, I suspect, tend to work even if they are slightly ill, because they get paid by the haircut.

I usually get two or three colds and one or two flus a year. In the past fourteen months, not a sniffle.

Re: Flu has disappeared worldwide during the Covid pandemic

#339

Post by papito »

logicslave wrote: post #305
papito wrote: post #285

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Stomach viruses. Where in the world are you? No, seriously - where? Because here in the United States people don't wash their hands before eating. It's fucking gross. I always sanitize my hands with alcohol pads before eating out - ALWAYS. But the others grab subway poles, handles, those nasty menus, and THEN they grab that sandwich with the same hands . If anything should come out of this pandemic, it should be Amer…

You do realize this is probably all in your head? Like the food you eat is probably full of bacteria, the plate you eat on, the fork you use? Like you sit there with an attitude, but in the kitchen you cant see your food was cooked on an unclean grill If it makes you feel superior or better, go ahead.

I am not going to touch a door handle, touched by hundreds of people before me, and then touch my burger with the same hand. Neither am I going to try and lick the same handle to develop immunity and get those precious germs into my system.

Re: Flu has disappeared worldwide during the Covid pandemic

#340

Post by jcwayne »

pchristensen wrote: post #290
wombatpm wrote: post #274

Earlier quoted context omitted.

While I have two myself, I am the first to say it: Children are disease carrying vermin

My phrase is "The world is a filthy biological soup", so the less we're in the world, the less covered in soup we are.

I prefer "walking petri dish".
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