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Flu has disappeared worldwide during the Covid pandemic

scientificamerican.com

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Re: Flu has disappeared worldwide during the Covid pandemic

#321

Post by Kiro »

ericb wrote: post #27
User23 wrote: post #4

Why did the flu also disappear in the states that had effectively no covid restrictions? This is a serious question and not an attempt at rhetoric. I really am curious. Was flu never a problem in Florida? Was voluntary compliance so widespread that heavy handed government policy had no marginal anti-flu effect? Something else?

I was in Florida two weeks ago--Orlando and Sarasota. I'm a Massachusetts resident. In Florida, I observed around 90+% mask usage in grocery stores. In a random ColdStone creamery, I saw maybe 70%, Five guys was probably 80% except while eating. In Massachusetts, usage is certainly higher, but maybe in practicality, not enough to make a difference compared to other factors?

1% mask usage in Sweden and we also have extremely low flu numbers.

Re: Flu has disappeared worldwide during the Covid pandemic

#322

Post by Karunamon »

ben_w wrote: post #165
fidesomnes wrote: post #156

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> While I think this is most likely due to masking, distancing I give it 5 years from now when it is no longer politically intolerable that studies will come out and admit that masks and social distancing did absolutely nothing to slow or prevent infection.

Considering that one year ago the general advice was not to bother with masks, this would be a surprising 360.

That advice was intentionally deceptive. It was based on not having a mass run on PPE needed by healthcare workers, not medical science or safety.

It also likely led to more deaths due to the revelation that it was a lie, and people treating any further advice (which was actually medically sound) with the same kind of cynical skepticism used for liars. Rejection of masks wasn't much of a thing before this happened.

Re: Flu has disappeared worldwide during the Covid pandemic

#323

Post by sdoering »

bosswipe wrote: post #309
papito wrote: post #285

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Stomach viruses. Where in the world are you? No, seriously - where? Because here in the United States people don't wash their hands before eating. It's fucking gross. I always sanitize my hands with alcohol pads before eating out - ALWAYS. But the others grab subway poles, handles, those nasty menus, and THEN they grab that sandwich with the same hands . If anything should come out of this pandemic, it should be Amer…

I don't have data but my hunch is that being a germophobe leads to worse long term health outcomes. Your immune system needs the exercise.

You don't need to be a germophobe if you just care for basic and decent hygiene.

And I really experience a lot of people just not caring for basic hygiene at all when outside.

Re: Flu has disappeared worldwide during the Covid pandemic

#324

Post by havewetsalt »

Majromax wrote: post #237

This should not come as a surprise, and it was largely predictable from the outset. The flu has a base reproduction number (R0) less than 2 ( https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/2020/12/07/covid-19... ). Covid has an R0 in the vicinity of 2.5 ( https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scena... ). In the meantime, public health measures like masking and distancing will work against both viruses. If…

It's conspiracy theory by definition if it falls outside the official narrative. So even science can be a conspiracy theory.

In fact, real science has a tendency to be viewed (by non-scientists, it should go without saying) as conspiracy theory insofar as it challenges the official narrative, and invokes complicated explanations, rather than a nice simple answer.

Re: Flu has disappeared worldwide during the Covid pandemic

#325

Post by incrudible »

aarondia wrote: post #300
gorbachev wrote: post #262

I was just commenting to a co-worker my entire family hasn't been sick since the pandemic started. That is very unusual for a family with young children. No flu, no stomach viruses, absolutely nothing for more than a year now. Thankfully no covid-19 either.

This year was a great experiment in person hygiene. It was the healthiest I have ever been for a full year, no colds, stomach bugs, anything. I'm not sure which practices I'll continue, but its definitely shown me that I have wayyyy more control over my health than I previously thought. Curious what others think are the most effective continued practices. Seems like social distancing isn't super reasonable, but maybe…

Just washing my hands regularly and not touching my face had me avoid colds for many years now. I've never worn a mask before COVID.

Re: Flu has disappeared worldwide during the Covid pandemic

#326

Post by Majromax »

DoingIsLearning wrote: post #268
Majromax wrote: post #237

This should not come as a surprise, and it was largely predictable from the outset. The flu has a base reproduction number (R0) less than 2 ( https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/2020/12/07/covid-19... ). Covid has an R0 in the vicinity of 2.5 ( https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scena... ). In the meantime, public health measures like masking and distancing will work against both viruses. If…

Non virologist naive question, if we apply all these measures targeting SARS-COV2 and it also creates a massive negative pressure on flu viruses, is there a risk that this applies an adaptive pressure to select for a future uber infectious new flu strain?

I don't see any reason to expect it would. Summer months, for example, already apply a strong negative pressure on the flu virus (that is, we have a flu season), yet we have not seen a year-round flu.

Diseases always face selection pressure to spread more easily and rapidly. When that selection pressure is caused by broad factors like "people aren't congregating together," it's hard to imagine how any simple evolution could overcome that barrier.

Covid itself is instructive here. Some of the variants of concern are more transmissible than the originally-distributed variant as of March of last year, but those mutations don't uniquely overcome masks or social distancing. They would have always result in a more transmissible virus (because SARS-CoV-2 appears to be a zoonotic virus not originally perfectly-adapted to humans), and we are seeing them now because each infected person is a new roll of the mutation dice.

Applying that lesson to the flu, the less prevalent the virus the less likely we are to see variations, not more. Alas, for influenza itself we always have the asterisk that we regularly see new variations cross to humans from animal reservoirs, so we're unlikely to eliminate it through only (nonpharmaceutical) human-health measures. (It'd be nice to get a universal flu vaccine, though.)

Re: Flu has disappeared worldwide during the Covid pandemic

#327

Post by Agathos »

papito wrote: post #285
gorbachev wrote: post #262

I was just commenting to a co-worker my entire family hasn't been sick since the pandemic started. That is very unusual for a family with young children. No flu, no stomach viruses, absolutely nothing for more than a year now. Thankfully no covid-19 either.

Stomach viruses. Where in the world are you? No, seriously - where? Because here in the United States people don't wash their hands before eating. It's fucking gross. I always sanitize my hands with alcohol pads before eating out - ALWAYS. But the others grab subway poles, handles, those nasty menus, and THEN they grab that sandwich with the same hands . If anything should come out of this pandemic, it should be Amer…

A norovirus will laugh at your hand sanitizer, as will most other non-enveloped viruses.

Re: Flu has disappeared worldwide during the Covid pandemic

#328

Post by SketchySeaBeast »

collyw wrote: post #103
mrtksn wrote: post #88

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, that's the hypothesis of the "There's no Covid-19" crowd that will disappear whenever hospital corridors are filled with dead bodies. On the other hand PCR test are not inaccurate at all, at least regarding false positives. There are detailed articles and even Youtube videos on the process and if you take a look, you will understand why it's quite accurate. In essence, they create a reaction that will mass produ…

> On the other hand PCR test are not inaccurate at all, at least regarding false positives. https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanres/article/PIIS2213-2... between 0.8% and 4% false positive rate according to that, making them completely unsuitable for mass testing. On top of that BBC's panorama did a program pointing out the sloppy standards at centers where the tests are processed.

Nevermind the fact that as we find more people positive we see an increase in hospitalizations and mortality shortly afterwards, why in these charts[1] did Alberta get so many sub 0.8% 7 day rolling averages then?

https://www.alberta.ca/stats/covid-19-alberta-statistics.htm...

Re: Flu has disappeared worldwide during the Covid pandemic

#329

Post by realreality »

havewetsalt wrote: post #324
Majromax wrote: post #237

This should not come as a surprise, and it was largely predictable from the outset. The flu has a base reproduction number (R0) less than 2 ( https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/2020/12/07/covid-19... ). Covid has an R0 in the vicinity of 2.5 ( https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scena... ). In the meantime, public health measures like masking and distancing will work against both viruses. If…

It's conspiracy theory by definition if it falls outside the official narrative. So even science can be a conspiracy theory. In fact, real science has a tendency to be viewed (by non-scientists, it should go without saying) as conspiracy theory insofar as it challenges the official narrative, and invokes complicated explanations, rather than a nice simple answer.

You need a conspiracy for it to be a conspiracy theory. Without that, it's just a theory (or, more likely, a hypothesis).

Re: Flu has disappeared worldwide during the Covid pandemic

#330

Post by allturtles »

rubicon33 wrote: post #318
aarondia wrote: post #300

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This year was a great experiment in person hygiene. It was the healthiest I have ever been for a full year, no colds, stomach bugs, anything. I'm not sure which practices I'll continue, but its definitely shown me that I have wayyyy more control over my health than I previously thought. Curious what others think are the most effective continued practices. Seems like social distancing isn't super reasonable, but maybe…

You can do a LOT. I haven't been sick once in 6+ years because I do the following: 1) Almost never eat out. Home cooked meals that I've prepped / washed. This was single handedly the biggest factor that completely removed "getting sick" from my life. 2) Hand wash before touching face, or food. 3) Avoid sick people. If I hear someone coughing or sneezing, I move away from them. Call me a germ freak, I don't care, I've…

4) Don't have children.
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