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Flu has disappeared worldwide during the Covid pandemic

scientificamerican.com

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Re: Flu has disappeared worldwide during the Covid pandemic

#271

Post by timr »

Majromax wrote: post #237

This should not come as a surprise, and it was largely predictable from the outset. The flu has a base reproduction number (R0) less than 2 ( https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/2020/12/07/covid-19... ). Covid has an R0 in the vicinity of 2.5 ( https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scena... ). In the meantime, public health measures like masking and distancing will work against both viruses. If…

> This should not come as a surprise, and it was largely predictable from the outset....the flu has a base reproduction number (R0) less than 2....Covid has an R0 in the vicinity of 2.5....In the meantime, public health measures like masking and distancing will work against both viruses....there's really no need for conspiracy theorizing.

Assuming that this is due to "masking and distancing" and the small difference in R0 is crude thinking. It's unlikely to be anything of the sort.

First, R0 is not a fixed constant. It varies by context and location, and we've seen influenza decline everywhere.

Second, R0 is an estimated value. There are big error bars on all of these estimates -- the overlap is far greater than the 0.5 you're using to claim causality.

Third, rhinovirus has not gone away (estimated R0 There's something far more interesting going on here, it is surprising, and it isn't a "conspiracy theory" to talk about it. It's science.

(FWIW, my current favored hypothesis is that the closure of schools, and possibly travel, significantly affected the spread of flu. Unlike Covid, kids are a significant vector of spread for influenza. It's one of those little facts about Covid that is...politically incorrect...to acknowledge right now. But I am speculating, and there are problems with this theory as well.)

[1] https://syndromictrends.com/metric/panel/rp/percent_positivi...

[2] https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.04.20020404v...

Re: Flu has disappeared worldwide during the Covid pandemic

#272

Post by widget1321 »

hellbannedguy wrote: post #246
lreeves wrote: post #139

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't know where you live but in Canada we have programs like FluWatchers which send sample groups a survey every week asking about flu-like symptoms, flu vaccinations (and COVID now) and such every flu season. They can also request a voluntary sample from you to help track these things. So the data is there :-)

In the USA, we have a few organizations that try to keep track of the flu. I think they are mostly private companies pushing drug ads though. Before covid hospitals, and doctors, didn't test for the flu viruses. Maybe in severe cases? I know for certain private practice doctors didn't. All you saw was a chart on the wall differentiating a cold, from the flu. In the USA, the government tries to target the upcoming flu…

In any of the places I've lived, I've never been to a doctor with suspected flu and not been given a flu test of some sort. Sure, I've gone in with something and been told "this is almost definitely not the flu so we won't test" but every doctor my family has seen over the years has done flu tests when suspected.

Re: Flu has disappeared worldwide during the Covid pandemic

#273

Post by Kneecaps07 »

postalrat wrote: post #112

https://syndromictrends.com/metric/panel/rp/percent_positivi... Unless I'm reading that chart wrong it seems like flu went away but viruses that cause cold like symptoms stuck around. If masks/etc was super effective wouldn't you expect those to go down with influenza?

I got a cold about two weeks ago and I'm only now almost recovered. I work at a hospital so got a COVID test to be safe, even though I'm fully vaccinated. They ran a respiratory panel as well. They called me with the results and I almost had to change my pants because they informed me I had "Coronavirus OC43.... which is essentially the common cold".

Re: Flu has disappeared worldwide during the Covid pandemic

#274

Post by wombatpm »

bombcar wrote: post #267
gorbachev wrote: post #262

I was just commenting to a co-worker my entire family hasn't been sick since the pandemic started. That is very unusual for a family with young children. No flu, no stomach viruses, absolutely nothing for more than a year now. Thankfully no covid-19 either.

I suspect a significant reduction of flu vectors is simply closed schools.

While I have two myself, I am the first to say it: Children are disease carrying vermin

Re: Flu has disappeared worldwide during the Covid pandemic

#275

Post by nitrogen »

widget1321 wrote: post #260
roody15 wrote: post #253

Not sure about in other areas, but where i am from the hospital systems rarely checked for flu. During the pandemic anyone symptomatic was told to stay home. People who visited a health clinic were typically first given a covid test. My guess is quite a few people who had the flu over the last year likely did not get an official flu test since it was difficult to get into a hospital or health clinics during the pande…

I can't speak for everywhere, but I know that from what I'm told here (was actually talking about the lack of flu with some nurses who worked in local clinics and hospitals in the area), those who had covid-like symptoms were usually given the covid test no matter what. But, if flu would have normally been suspected and there wasn't a strong indication it was covid (loss of smell/taste, known exposure to a covid-posi…

I look forward to the day when the standard practice is to test for every common respiratory pathogen at once when someone has cold/flu symptoms. The technology exists now for personalized, data-driven medicine to take off.

I know someone who works for a company who produces such tests at the same cost as a single test today, but often insurance companies and providers don't know how to bill for them, so you see stories in the news about "irresponsible doctors who should never have ordered 20 tests" that were really a single test billed incorrectly.

Re: Flu has disappeared worldwide during the Covid pandemic

#276

Post by [deleted] »

Majromax wrote: post #237

This should not come as a surprise, and it was largely predictable from the outset. The flu has a base reproduction number (R0) less than 2 ( https://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/2020/12/07/covid-19... ). Covid has an R0 in the vicinity of 2.5 ( https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scena... ). In the meantime, public health measures like masking and distancing will work against both viruses. If…

[deleted]

Re: Flu has disappeared worldwide during the Covid pandemic

#277

Post by widget1321 »

mensetmanusman wrote: post #263
DanBC wrote: post #174

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The majority of covid deaths are those that on average had very few months left to live. In England we know covid is killing people on average at least 10 years early.

10 years earlier from when they would have died from the flu? Or is a flu death also some # of years earlier than {median death age}?

10 years earlier than they would have been expected to die without catching COVID. From anything, not just the flu. All-cause mortality includes flu deaths, yes, if that's what you're asking?

Re: Flu has disappeared worldwide during the Covid pandemic

#278

Post by samiru »

roody15 wrote: post #253

Not sure about in other areas, but where i am from the hospital systems rarely checked for flu. During the pandemic anyone symptomatic was told to stay home. People who visited a health clinic were typically first given a covid test. My guess is quite a few people who had the flu over the last year likely did not get an official flu test since it was difficult to get into a hospital or health clinics during the pande…

In Finland Covid can be diagnosed just by flu like symptoms, even with a negative test result for Covid.

Not sure how much this affects rhe stats. Practically no cases of influenza are recorded, though.

Re: Flu has disappeared worldwide during the Covid pandemic

#279

Post by kingsuper20 »

bombcar wrote: post #267
gorbachev wrote: post #262

I was just commenting to a co-worker my entire family hasn't been sick since the pandemic started. That is very unusual for a family with young children. No flu, no stomach viruses, absolutely nothing for more than a year now. Thankfully no covid-19 either.

I suspect a significant reduction of flu vectors is simply closed schools.

Boom. Got it in one, although I expect that a few flu cases are being blamed on Covid.

Maybe in a couple more generations of improvement of telepresence we can mostly eradicate infectious disease. Next up: We each get a nutrient bath and direct hook-up.

Re: Flu has disappeared worldwide during the Covid pandemic

#280

Post by ceejayoz »

andreygrehov wrote: post #247
yosito wrote: post #3

While I think this is most likely due to masking, distancing and staying home when sick, which were all far more effective against the flu than against SARS-CoV-2, I wonder how much this was affected by some of the deep cleans that cities were doing at the beginning of the pandemic where they basically sprayed entire cities with disinfectant trucks. Does anyone with more expertise have any thoughts about that?

Most likely due to people staying at home. I don't believe a mask can in any way protect one from catching a virus [1]. Edit: if you downvote, please, comment why. I could be wrong, so would love to know your arguments. [1]: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7680614/

Find a more credible source.

https://www.reuters.com/article/factcheck-stanford-masks/fac...

The author lied about his affiliation with Stanford, and the paper was retracted.

> Jonathan Davis, a spokesperson for Elsevier, told Reuters via email that Medical Hypotheses has since retracted the article after concluding it was misleading due to “a broader review of existing scientific evidence” showing that masks “are an effective prevention of COVID-19 transmission” and said that the article contained several misquotes and unverified data. Davis said that the author himself had submitted the affiliation with Stanford Medicine.

> As reported here by Forbes, Medical Hypotheses has previously published articles such as “Is there an association between the use of heeled footwear and schizophrenia” (here) and “Ejaculation as a potential treatment of nasal congestion in mature males” (here).

There's a reason it's titled "Medical Hypotheses".

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