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Flu has disappeared worldwide during the Covid pandemic

scientificamerican.com

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Re: Flu has disappeared worldwide during the Covid pandemic

#61

Post by hammock »

khuey wrote: post #42
ibraheemdev wrote: post #5

Just speculating here, but maybe because of false positives where flu cases get labeled as Covid? I've heard that PCR tests were not meant to be used for large scale virus detection. EDIT: The PCR test quote was fact checked and deemed to be misleading, but it still sounds like they are not very accurate [0]. [0]: https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-factcheck-pcr-idUSKBN2442...

What in that link sounds "not very accurate"?

The test detects "viral material" and "does not indicate that the virus is fully intact and infectious, i.e. able to cause infection in other people."

The fraud is not in the test itself, but in the reporting of test results. When a PCR test comes back positive, more often than not it is assumed the patient is infected with COVID (which may not be the case) - and cases of infected people are reported widely using these PCR test results.

Re: Flu has disappeared worldwide during the Covid pandemic

#62

Post by jMyles »

paviva wrote: post #55

An alternative explanation is that of "viral interference"[1,2], i.e., the most transmissible virus boosting up viral immunity in the population, and precluding transmission of the less transmissible/fit virus [1]: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5489283/ [2]: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanmic/article/PIIS2666-5...

It's strange to call this an "alternative explanation", since it's the one that expert infectious disease researchers, nearly without exception, are pointing to.

The (let's face it, silly) notion that masks and distancing suppressed all respiratory pathogens except one is a theory with very little traction, and which will almost certainly not stand up to serious scrutiny.

Re: Flu has disappeared worldwide during the Covid pandemic

#63

Post by brandon272 »

petertodd wrote: post #24
brandon272 wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The likely explanation is that, because the flu is significantly less transmissible than COVID, even states with "no restrictions" were able to knock it out because enough people took enough measures to protect themselves from airborne/surface communicable disease in general. In other words, you can probably beat back the flu significantly by having enough of the population mask up, wash/sanitize their hands, etc.

> The likely explanation is that, because the flu is significantly less transmissible than COVID But why is it less transmissible? One obvious explanation is because we've lived with it all our lives, and most people already have some level of pre-existing immunity to most flu strains they're exposed to. Both due to natural infections, and vaccines. > In other words, you can probably beat back the flu significantly b…

> But why is it less transmissible? One obvious explanation is because we've lived with it all our lives

Haven't we lived with different types of coronaviruses all of our lives as well, though? It seems at least equally as plausible that COVID is more transmissible due to actual physical qualities of the virus with respect to replication rate, particle size, and other factors that cause more virus to be expelled from the body in different ways. It could be that the flu is more transmissible by fomites than through aerosols, or that less flu virus tends to be expelled by the body, or that the flu virus has a more difficult time in infecting our cells compared to SARS-CoV2.

Of course, this is pure speculation on my part, but from what I can tell we lack data for anyone to be drawing any firm conclusions on this point.

Re: Flu has disappeared worldwide during the Covid pandemic

#64

Post by cimi_ »

yosito wrote: post #13
al3xandre wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You realize those « deep cleans » are mostly comms operations for governments to look like they are doing stuff, right? Virus live (mostly) in people, not on sidewalks. One of the most ridiculous example: the Thai government went to the extent of spraying disinfectant in the forest next to the Burmese border, and got pictures published in newspaper to show their great work. Comical! [1] [1] https://twitter.com/thaine…

> You realize those « deep cleans » are mostly comms operations for governments to look like they are doing stuff, right? Yes, but it must have had some effect on fomite transmission of some viruses, right?

Assuming what you're saying is correct (I don't know), what other effects does spraying disinfectants everywhere have?

I would be very surprised if doing this is a good idea, even if it kills covid and/or flu.

Re: Flu has disappeared worldwide during the Covid pandemic

#65

Post by dheera »

ibraheemdev wrote: post #5

Just speculating here, but maybe because of false positives where flu cases get labeled as Covid? I've heard that PCR tests were not meant to be used for large scale virus detection. EDIT: The PCR test quote was fact checked and deemed to be misleading, but it still sounds like they are not very accurate [0]. [0]: https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-factcheck-pcr-idUSKBN2442...

I mean, no shit, they didn't ask me, so their stats are wrong. Pretty sure I got the flu last year during the pandemic. (Got a negative COVID test.)

Re: Flu has disappeared worldwide during the Covid pandemic

#66

Post by cm2012 »

User23 wrote: post #4

Why did the flu also disappear in the states that had effectively no covid restrictions? This is a serious question and not an attempt at rhetoric. I really am curious. Was flu never a problem in Florida? Was voluntary compliance so widespread that heavy handed government policy had no marginal anti-flu effect? Something else?

It's pretty huge that people with cold/flu symptoms now stay home or mask up. People used to just cough and sneeze everywhere.

Re: Flu has disappeared worldwide during the Covid pandemic

#67

Post by pmontra »

User23 wrote: post #4

Why did the flu also disappear in the states that had effectively no covid restrictions? This is a serious question and not an attempt at rhetoric. I really am curious. Was flu never a problem in Florida? Was voluntary compliance so widespread that heavy handed government policy had no marginal anti-flu effect? Something else?

A single data point: I didn't get flu once since I went self employed and started working from home most of the time in 2006. Less public transport, less open space offices, less restaurants at lunch time. Maybe a coincidence but if people had less chances to meet other people, maybe because those other people kept social distancing, then they had less chances to get flu. It's way less contagious than covid to start with.

Re: Flu has disappeared worldwide during the Covid pandemic

#68

Post by fecak »

fridif wrote: post #59

While I am sure that masks and no working from the office played a part in this, I believe: 1) most flu cases are being mislabeled as covid 2) most people who have a mild flu are not going to the doctor 3) the easiest way to test this will be when covid goes away and the flu suddenly reappears.

When Covid goes away, we can assume masking, distancing, and staying home will also go away. In that case, all communicable diseases are likely to increase, from the common cold to STDs.

Re: Flu has disappeared worldwide during the Covid pandemic

#69

Post by ipaddr »

fridif wrote: post #59

While I am sure that masks and no working from the office played a part in this, I believe: 1) most flu cases are being mislabeled as covid 2) most people who have a mild flu are not going to the doctor 3) the easiest way to test this will be when covid goes away and the flu suddenly reappears.

You know they do covid tests if they think your flu is covid.

I think you are mixing up half-facts. People were saying that deaths with co-factors were being lumped as covid related deaths and different countries were classifying things differently for political reasons. No one is mislabeling the flu as covid and not giving you a covid test to detect the strain.

Re: Flu has disappeared worldwide during the Covid pandemic

#70

Post by addicted »

jMyles wrote: post #62
paviva wrote: post #55

An alternative explanation is that of "viral interference"[1,2], i.e., the most transmissible virus boosting up viral immunity in the population, and precluding transmission of the less transmissible/fit virus [1]: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5489283/ [2]: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanmic/article/PIIS2666-5...

It's strange to call this an "alternative explanation", since it's the one that expert infectious disease researchers, nearly without exception, are pointing to. The (let's face it, silly) notion that masks and distancing suppressed all respiratory pathogens except one is a theory with very little traction, and which will almost certainly not stand up to serious scrutiny.

There’s nothing silly about a novel virus having greater abilities to overcome barriers when compared to other pathogens that humans have had years decades and centuries to develop defenses again.

At the end of the day it’s likely gonna be the result of a combination of all these factors.

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