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Tesla Q1 2021 Results

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Re: Tesla Q1 2021 Results

#331

Post by tim-- »

legulere wrote: post #235
habeebtc wrote: post #208

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I have two separate and (mostly) unrelated feelings. Musk has done something remarkable as you say. At the same time, the market cap is nuts and a portent of doom. Bigger than all car companies combined, by market cap? A market crash could take down Tesla and set back electric car adoption by 20 years.

It wouldn’t, even traditional car manufacturers like VW are massively ramping up their electric car production. They just don’t have Elon musk for PR

Voltswagen definitely made some noise. I think the other large car manufacturers have been learning a few tricks.

Re: Tesla Q1 2021 Results

#332

Post by audunw »

oblio wrote: post #306
erikstarck wrote: post #298

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You forgot: * Software

Diminishing returns come much faster and harder for software in cars. Software not being the main focus of a car. Especially now with Android Auto/Apple CarPlay.

> Diminishing returns come much faster and harder for software in cars. Software not being the main focus of a car.

That used to be true. With self-driving technology I'm not sure that's true anymore. Tesla has even offered hardware updates to improve self-driving of older models. I haven't heard of anyone else doing that yet.

> Especially now with Android Auto/Apple CarPlay.

Eh. That's just infotainement, and cars can still provide significant value without using that. When driving a Tesla I don't miss CarPlay, and I rarely use it in my Kia even though it's better than the built-in infotainment stuff. Mostly just for navigation if I know it's a complex route. But again, I never miss CarPlay for navigation in Tesla cars because the built-in system is very good and always up-to-date through OTA.

Re: Tesla Q1 2021 Results

#333

Post by nickik »

dmitriid wrote: post #316
lumost wrote: post #224

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I had to look it up but for reference in Q1 2021 the big auto makers delivered the following. Ford: 521,334 GM: 642,250 Toyota: 2.46 million VW: 2.5 million If Tesla holds up they'll be larger than Ford in 2 years and be the largest automaker in the world in 4 years.

Nissan has sold more of the Nissan Leaf worldwide than Tesla has sold all its models combined. Edit: it has been pointed out that this is incorrect. Apparently, Leaf sold as much as Tesla sold in 2020.

This is factually incorrect.

Re: Tesla Q1 2021 Results

#334

Post by bildung »

watt wrote: post #262
legulere wrote: post #233

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Only if other companies aren’t growing faster. VW tripled electric car sales in 2020 compared to 2021: https://www.volkswagenag.com/en/news/2021/01/Volkswagen-bran...

When you sold 1 car yesterday, and sell 2 today, you have doubled your sales. It's misleading to talk about growth in terms of percentage points (or doubling/tripling, etc), if it's somewhat low numbers.

VW already sold 134k in 2020, of which 56k were the id.3 that effectively was available since september 2020.

Re: Tesla Q1 2021 Results

#335

Post by oblio »

audunw wrote: post #332
oblio wrote: post #306

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Diminishing returns come much faster and harder for software in cars. Software not being the main focus of a car. Especially now with Android Auto/Apple CarPlay.

> Diminishing returns come much faster and harder for software in cars. Software not being the main focus of a car. That used to be true. With self-driving technology I'm not sure that's true anymore. Tesla has even offered hardware updates to improve self-driving of older models. I haven't heard of anyone else doing that yet. > Especially now with Android Auto/Apple CarPlay. Eh. That's just infotainement, and cars c…

> That used to be true. With self-driving technology I'm not sure that's true anymore. Tesla has even offered hardware updates to improve self-driving of older models. I haven't heard of anyone else doing that yet.

Nobody has self-driving tech in production. What they do have is a combo of adaptive cruise control, lane keeping assist, lane changing assist and park assist.

Full self-driving tech is still at the basic research stage, just like cold fusion reactors. It could be out in 5 years, it could be out in 40. Nobody's going to "OTA" that.

Re: Tesla Q1 2021 Results

#336

Post by 988747 »

11thEarlOfMar wrote: post #2

"Model 3 was the best-selling premium sedan in the world, outselling long-time industry leaders such as the 3 Series and E Class. This demonstrates that an electric vehicle can be a category leader and outsell its gas-powered counterparts." I find this to be a major milestone in the transition to BEV. This is an achievement.

That's just cleverly chosen comparison point. The only "premium" thing about Teslas is their price. They have laughably low quality compared to top BMW or Audi models.

Re: Tesla Q1 2021 Results

#337

Post by dannyw »

audunw wrote: post #326
3dee wrote: post #292

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Right now Tesla is outperforming competition on three points: * 0-100km/h times * Range * Charging network I believe most people don't care about the 0-100 speed. And most people can live with a little less range. So this leaves the network as a selling point. I believe it depends on the country how important this is. For example in the Netherlands you can cross the whole country on one charge. So you don't need a ne…

They are perceived to be very far ahead on vehicle assist and self-driving. I can't say if they actually are technologically speaking, but I think the perception they have will give them a significant benefit for years ahead. A part of that is the frequent software updates, and even options of updating the hardware. It makes customers feel like their car could get full self-driving eventually, even if it doesn't ship…

My Hyunadi's driver assist (adaptive cruise control, active lane keeping) is comparable if not more reliable feeling than Tesla's autopilot.

Re: Tesla Q1 2021 Results

#338

Post by froh »

La1n wrote: post #265
gigatexal wrote: post #261

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That’s a bold statement. Here in Berlin I am seeing the model 3 a lot these days.

https://www.autocar.co.uk/car-news/new-cars/renault-zoe-ecli... Less Tesla's are getting sold while other car makers have massive growth in their sales.

Zoe is smaller and cheaper than Model 3. In the market of upper middle class and upper class vehicles (like BMW 3, 5 7 series, Mercedes C, E class, Audi A4 and above), Tesla was outselling the others combined for a year in a row.

The real question is if Tesla has real plans to grow down into the Zoe category. the mass production of Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi, or Volkswagen group or Toyota is another ball park from what Tesla does today. Each of them produces about 10 Mio vehicles y/y, and the margins really are in the high volume there.

My personal bet is Tesla stays in the upper middle class and upper class vehicles, and is not the new VW/RNM/FCA/Toyota/FMC, but the new BMW, Mercedes, Audi. And Porsche.

Re: Tesla Q1 2021 Results

#339

Post by dannyw »

TheTrotters wrote: post #327
jillesvangurp wrote: post #313

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tesla is not just a car company. They are diversifying their income. Trucks, vans, are things they are planning to do but are holding back on because of a lack of battery to build those and because of continued spectacular demand for very lucrative high end cars. And that's just vehicles. Their solar business is scaling nicely. Grid storage is a growth market as well. And of course they are pairing their solar with d…

Yeah, perhaps it's easier to understand Tesla's valuation if we look at is as a solar energy company, not just a car company.

No, that gets even harder to understand, as Tesla sucks at solar.

Re: Tesla Q1 2021 Results

#340

Post by jillesvangurp »

markvdb wrote: post #249
tw04 wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> today EV in US or Germany run largely of coal No? Coal accounts for 11% of US energy production. 7.5% for Germany. https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/us-energy-facts/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/736640/energy-mix-german...

Unfortunately, you seem to have misread the report you quoted. Germany's not-so-secret is lignite, a dirtier kind of coal supplying 16.8% of its electricity. Lignite together with traditional coal at 7.3% supplied 24.1% of Germany's electricity. [0] [0] https://strom-report.de/germany-power-generation-2020/

And steadily declining year on year. The next government is likely to feature the green party and possibly even a green party prime minister. IMHO that will set in motion an accelerated shut down of lignite and coal, which only narrowly got averted by the CSU in the current government (the CDU looked more likely to compromise on this). Even so, it will likely take a while.

Otherwise the headline here is that renewables are already the dominant source of energy in the German market. Gas is the only thing growing in market size currently other than renewables and that's mostly just offsetting the decline of coal and nuclear. Overall, renewables grow faster. Otherwise, many EV owners also put solar on their roofs and/or buy power from renewable sources or charge at public chargers hooked up to renewable sources. So, the notion that EVs are powered by coal is very dated at this point.

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