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Tesla Q1 2021 Results

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Re: Tesla Q1 2021 Results

#311

Post by oblio »

aero-glide2 wrote: post #272
habeebtc wrote: post #208

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I have two separate and (mostly) unrelated feelings. Musk has done something remarkable as you say. At the same time, the market cap is nuts and a portent of doom. Bigger than all car companies combined, by market cap? A market crash could take down Tesla and set back electric car adoption by 20 years.

Lets start with two assumptions. In 10 years, majority of cars sold will be electric. Majority of cars sold will have self driving capability. Tesla is a leader in both. Much of the traditional knowledge companies have about ICE engines do not help them build a better electric car. That knowledge is worthless for the future. Stock price represents future value.

> Much of the traditional knowledge companies have about ICE engines do not help them build a better electric car.

True, but look around at the electric platforms being developed by traditional car companies. Mercedes has one, BMW has one, VW has one, Nissan has one, etc.

Most of them will be transitioning. The stock price represents future value where that value is Tesla absolutely crushing everyone else, which we can now say with ~80% confidence won't happen. Irrational exuberance.

Re: Tesla Q1 2021 Results

#312

Post by hedberg10 »

pyrale wrote: post #271
lumost wrote: post #224

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I had to look it up but for reference in Q1 2021 the big auto makers delivered the following. Ford: 521,334 GM: 642,250 Toyota: 2.46 million VW: 2.5 million If Tesla holds up they'll be larger than Ford in 2 years and be the largest automaker in the world in 4 years.

And they'll produce more cars than there are atoms in the universe before the end of this century.

Sound prediction! Do you have an MBA?

Re: Tesla Q1 2021 Results

#313

Post by jillesvangurp »

habeebtc wrote: post #208
cs702 wrote: post #132

Whatever you may think of Tesla and Musk, you have to agree that they've accomplished something rather incredible. Few would have thought this possible not that long ago: * 185K vehicle deliveries in Q1, +109% versus a year ago [a] * 2.7K supercharger stations, +41% versus a year ago * 24.5K supercharger connectors, +44% versus a year ago * 92 MW of solar generation deployed in Q1, +163% versus a year ago * 445 MWh o…

I have two separate and (mostly) unrelated feelings. Musk has done something remarkable as you say. At the same time, the market cap is nuts and a portent of doom. Bigger than all car companies combined, by market cap? A market crash could take down Tesla and set back electric car adoption by 20 years.

Tesla is not just a car company. They are diversifying their income. Trucks, vans, are things they are planning to do but are holding back on because of a lack of battery to build those and because of continued spectacular demand for very lucrative high end cars.

And that's just vehicles. Their solar business is scaling nicely. Grid storage is a growth market as well. And of course they are pairing their solar with domestic storage as well. All rapid growth markets. That's why their market cap is what it is. Multiple rapid growth markets, a proven ability to scale and execute, etc. That's why investors love them.

A market crash would be brutal for everyone. Particularly those with struggling product lines and outdated products that are very dependent on both to secure the revenue to invest themselves out of that mess.

Re: Tesla Q1 2021 Results

#314

Post by stjo »

pyrale wrote: post #271
lumost wrote: post #224

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I had to look it up but for reference in Q1 2021 the big auto makers delivered the following. Ford: 521,334 GM: 642,250 Toyota: 2.46 million VW: 2.5 million If Tesla holds up they'll be larger than Ford in 2 years and be the largest automaker in the world in 4 years.

And they'll produce more cars than there are atoms in the universe before the end of this century.

That's how you end up with 400 husbands: https://xkcd.com/605/

Re: Tesla Q1 2021 Results

#316

Post by dmitriid »

lumost wrote: post #224
cs702 wrote: post #132

Whatever you may think of Tesla and Musk, you have to agree that they've accomplished something rather incredible. Few would have thought this possible not that long ago: * 185K vehicle deliveries in Q1, +109% versus a year ago [a] * 2.7K supercharger stations, +41% versus a year ago * 24.5K supercharger connectors, +44% versus a year ago * 92 MW of solar generation deployed in Q1, +163% versus a year ago * 445 MWh o…

I had to look it up but for reference in Q1 2021 the big auto makers delivered the following. Ford: 521,334 GM: 642,250 Toyota: 2.46 million VW: 2.5 million If Tesla holds up they'll be larger than Ford in 2 years and be the largest automaker in the world in 4 years.

Nissan has sold more of the Nissan Leaf worldwide than Tesla has sold all its models combined.

Edit: it has been pointed out that this is incorrect. Apparently, Leaf sold as much as Tesla sold in 2020.

Re: Tesla Q1 2021 Results

#317

Post by Drblessing »

cobaltoxide wrote: post #12
pcbro141 wrote: post #7

Do you think Apple regrets not buying Tesla ~2017-2018 when they had the chance, given indications they are working on an Apple Car? Why or why not?

Do corporations experience emotions?

This will keep the philosophers busy for a few 1000 years.

Re: Tesla Q1 2021 Results

#318

Post by _ph_ »

jgalt212 wrote: post #83
1970-01-01 wrote: post #24

Why is solar deployment measured in MW and not # of installs? It doesn't seem like the best metric for measuring growth.

more importantly, why is it in any economic to install solar cells on a home instead of at scale on a solar farm?

For two basic reasons:

- the home owner owns the roof top and it is already there and unused, for a solar farm, the energy company needs to find and acquire land.

- the home owner uses most of the produced electricity at cost rate, a grid company has a lot of additional costs a home owner does not have, like operating a grid, ensuring service 24x7.

Re: Tesla Q1 2021 Results

#319

Post by jillesvangurp »

ogre_codes wrote: post #227
Klonoar wrote: post #186

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Honest question: how does this factor in with BMW's leasing program? Most people I know (outside of... myself... lol) refuse to actually buy a BMW, and just lease it. Are these numbers included?

Teslas are still pretty new, but generally speaking leasing them is not a great choice. The terms are fine, but financially you are better off buying one and selling it after 3 years. They tend to hold their price a lot better than a Mercedes or a BMW.

That makes them a great choice for lease companies. Lease companies are popular for company cars in e.g. the Netherlands and the UK. EV adoption in that market is very high because of this reason. I agree it makes less sense for private ownership; though the lack of hassle associated with ownership is worth something to some people as well.

Fully charged recently did an episode on second hand value of EVs. Basically, lease cars are sold in auctions and they indeed hold their value amazingly well. Most EVs produced since 2012 are still on the road and are still very decent value.

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