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Tesla Q1 2021 Results

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Re: Tesla Q1 2021 Results

#191

Post by ctdonath »

nimithryn wrote: post #171
feifan wrote: post #89

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not entirely convinced it's a good idea, but one convincing argument I've seen is that sensor fusion is hard and it's not a priori clear which sensor to believe when they provide conflicting information. It's entirely possible that they get better predictive accuracy from vision-only data then in the analogous situations with vision+radar data.

I don't find this argument convincing at all. Just ignore the lidar in situations where lidar and vision conflict and you have the original decision. They probably started without lidar due to the cost (Tesla is one of few companies actually selling cars to customers, who are sensitive to price). The price of lidar has come down, but I would guess it requires a fair amount of expensive rearchitecture to add it in now…

Sounds like a good reason to dump LIDAR. if vision is good enough to always defer to, why bother with something contradicting?

Re: Tesla Q1 2021 Results

#192

Post by jryle70 »

jocker12 wrote: post #110
ajross wrote: post #106

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I repeat the more focused point: you don't find it impressive that a car from a manufacturer that was barely on the map five years ago is now beating the Mercedes E Class ( edit: C class, sorry ) in its own price category? I mean, by your logic if Tesla isn't impressive for what the Model 3 is doing then Daimler Chrysler must be a flaming disaster, right?

Look at their statement and realize how Tesla is intentionally misleading their shareholders. If Tesla is so impressive, why do they need to do that?

> This demonstrates that an electric vehicle can be a category leader and outsell its gas-powered counterparts.

ICE is currently 97% of the automobile market. A BEV taking the lead in any vehicle segment is a major milestone. Nothing is misleading about that.

Re: Tesla Q1 2021 Results

#193

Post by jryle70 »

jocker12 wrote: post #108
spoonjim wrote: post #85

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A company founded in 2003 on an entirely different concept of automobile propulsion has taken the lead in a multi hundred billion dollar market. Hell yes that’s an achievement and it doesn’t need scare quotes.

"has taken the lead" Has taken the lead on the "premium sedan" category market, where less and less people are buying "premium sedans". What scare quotes?

Let me rephrase it as "Premium sedan segment would be in free fall if not for Tesla Model 3, a car that didn't exist 4 years ago". People flock to Model 3 despite it being in a less trending segment. They could have got a SUV instead, but they didn't. Sound impressive to me.

Re: Tesla Q1 2021 Results

#194

Post by ErikVandeWater »

blamazon wrote: post #79
anonu wrote: post #50

> We believe that a vision-only system is ultimately all that is needed for full autonomy. Our AI-based software architecture has been increasingly reliant on cameras, to the point where radar is becoming unnecessary earlier than expected. As a result, our FSD team is fully focused on evolving to a vision-based autonomous system and we are nearly ready to switch the US market to Tesla Vision. This is a huge gamble IM…

Unnecessary cost and complexity are the reasons Tesla has quoted before. One less sensor to buy, or replace when it breaks. I’m not convinced. There’s good reasons they’re the lone player in the self driving space with this vision only play.

Since Lidar doesn't use moving parts I imagine it should be easy to make it last longer than the life of the vehicle.

Re: Tesla Q1 2021 Results

#195

Post by PhantomGremlin »

CyberDildonics wrote: post #146
arcticbull wrote: post #138

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Totally. That would be the Securities Act of 1933, the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, and 18 U.S. Code Sections 371, 1341, 1343, 1348, and 1349. I’ll leave it as an exercise for you if you’d like to read the full text but an analysis is available as [1]. There’s a reason Tim Cook isn’t out on Twitter shilling the companies Apple has invested in while selling their shares. I’m led to believe Club Fed isn’t all it’s…

Did you read your own link? It about "pump and dump" schemes and explains that they are fundamentally about false positive statements. "Generally, securities fraud occurs when someone makes a false or misleading positive statement about a company or the value of its stock, inducing others to make a financial decision based on that false statement."

Read this re full self driving: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=26519357

I've never seen a more blatant example of securities fraud than that. And yet he gets away with it over and over. Year after year.

Where's my full-self-driving taxi? I want to buy one and rent it out and get rich! /s

And for comic relief, see the true state of FSD "beta". Be sure to watch the videos: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=26519244

Re: Tesla Q1 2021 Results

#196

Post by CyberDildonics »

arcticbull wrote: post #168
CyberDildonics wrote: post #155

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Cryptocurrency is not a stock and lots of people make predictions and bold statements about other things like gold and silver. Nothing here would be significant if the other side of the equation wasn't people soaking up the slightest drip of nonsense and turning it into a frenzy of something they don't understand.

> Cryptocurrency is not a stock and lots of people make predictions and bold statements about other things like gold and silver. Surely you have an example then of a publicly traded company picking up a pile of assets like gold or silver, talking them up on social media while selling them? Would your blanket exception for crypto apply to security tokens or just utility tokens? It’s interesting that you once again acc…

Your link stated that the core of securities fraud is about making false positive statements about a company or stock.

His statements were not false and not about a company or stock. It is debatable if they were even positive. Even your quote is only saying they wouldn't convert to USD and no time frame is given.

There is no "exception" here.

> It’s interesting that you once again accuse people of not knowing what they’re talking about because they disagree with your opinions.

This is a hallucination. I didn't accuse anyone of anything. I asked if you read your link since it directly contradicts what you are saying.

Re: Tesla Q1 2021 Results

#197

Post by mulmen »

stephencanon wrote: post #159
mulmen wrote: post #135

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah the A4 and A5 seem comparable but Tesla only mentions the A6, a larger sedan like the 5 Series or E Class. I'd like to see the detailed numbers on this. Also, the 3 Series wagon seems like it would be included in these numbers?

3 series wagon is no longer sold in the US, sadly.

That is sad. But this raises another question, is Tesla only quoting US sales here?

Re: Tesla Q1 2021 Results

#198

Post by ProAm »

11thEarlOfMar wrote: post #75
t0mas88 wrote: post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think most people define premium by the build quality, interior design, options etc. But if you want to only define it by price, then the model 3 is definitely not in the premium segment. It's a very cheap car... So much so that I know a few people that literally joke at a white model 3 company lease as "your consulting job must suck"

FWIW, I drove a BMW 328i for 20 years. Paid $39,000 for it. Put 230,000 miles on it. I loved that car dearly. I replaced it with a Model 3 and put 70,000 miles on it so far. Paid $49,000 for it, which is in the mid-point of what you'd pay for a new 328i. It's even more fun to drive, with operating costs at about 1/4 the BMW.

The model 3 looks like a $25,000 car when you buy it new though, and that's my problem with it.

Re: Tesla Q1 2021 Results

#199

Post by jryle70 »

azinman2 wrote: post #64
dangus wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The inflated stock price is easy to explain: intangibles are part of the balance sheet. In my guesstimation, Tesla will be making electric cars with a range to dollar ratio that can’t possibly be matched by incumbents for the foreseeable future. VW and the rest are more capable of producing a refined car, but (again, my opinion) Tesla’s EV advantage is similar to the big three’s various inertial advantages that they…

So I just bought an ID.4 this weekend after seeing on HN on Friday that it launched in the US. I also test drove a Tesla Y just to double check Saturday morning before doing so. Tesla Y is for sure faster and the better drive. It's also like 10-15k more expensive and that's not even before VW's rebates. The interior was weird -- tiny headrests, tiny mirrors, and really poor back visibility. A giant screen in middle a…

> With everyone coming online in the next couple years, Tesla is going to have very real competition.

This is true, but BEV sales is currently only 3% or so of the total automobile market. There is so much room for growth. Tesla, VW, GM, and practically all major automakers pour money into BEV not to take a share in the 3% slice of the market.

Tesla will remain the leader in the BEV in the foreseeable future even with more competition. Smaller slide likely, but of a much bigger pie.

Re: Tesla Q1 2021 Results

#200

Post by [deleted] »

dangus wrote: post #10
systemvoltage wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What’s amazing is that just 5 years ago, it seemed like a distant goal. People were skeptical of Tesla in 2015 (rightfully so). Almost went bankrupt in 2017. They dug themselves out of there despite of Elon’s PR shenanigans. Pretty amazing I think! Now about that stock price, I’m not so sure. It’s like next 20 years are baked into $735/share price now.

The inflated stock price is easy to explain: intangibles are part of the balance sheet. In my guesstimation, Tesla will be making electric cars with a range to dollar ratio that can’t possibly be matched by incumbents for the foreseeable future. VW and the rest are more capable of producing a refined car, but (again, my opinion) Tesla’s EV advantage is similar to the big three’s various inertial advantages that they…

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