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Subsidiary of Toyota to acquire Lyft’s self-driving car division

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191–200 of 350 posts

Re: Subsidiary of Toyota to acquire Lyft’s self-driving car division

#191
I feel like all these self-driving companies aren't actually in it to achieve the success. They know it's a long way off, they're just trying to hit enough milestones to get scooped up by somebody bigger. Perhaps with the exception of Tesla, who I have no explanation for. Self-driving cars are so far down the totem-pole in my opinion--if we're going to have to rework our roadways in order to accommodate self-driving cars, why not just innovate there?

A roadway can be MUCH smarter than a car. Each segment of smart road is unique, and only has to worry about itself and whatever cars are present in the area. Smart roads could be managed by a few operators (in fact one operator could shepherd many road segments).

Each smart car has to be able to account for all possible kinds of roads. Smart cars each require an operator who is essentially just sitting there waiting for the car to fail (and therefore the failures become more catastrophic as the tech gets better, since trust rises and attention spans fail).

Put the tech into the ROADS, and just let the cars listen.

Re: Subsidiary of Toyota to acquire Lyft’s self-driving car division

#192

Not surprisingly it takes a lot of capital to make serious in-roads into self-driving. Ultimately if your main business is not profitable it is hard to justify spending 100m a year on L5 with no reasonable end in sight. I think this is why only Waymo or Cruise or one of the other well-funded-by-profitable-other-business will continue to progress towards the true self-driving vehicle... its just too damn expensive and…

What will happen afterward? They'll get acquired by Uber or something?

I think Lyft's core ridesharing business will continue to become more profitable in a duopoly setting with Uber. Ridesharing is a network effect business, if the riders are there, the drivers will come, the more drivers you have, the more availability so you get more riders. The US has proven that it is capable of supporting two overlapping players (not all markets can support this and meet regulatory rules)

Re: Subsidiary of Toyota to acquire Lyft’s self-driving car division

#193

Most ride-hailing companies that invested in self-driving cars are giving up on these projects. Most of these startups struggle to sustain their business.

*Most ride-hailing companies that needed a narrative ahead of their IPO for why they had a defensible long term moat and leaned heavily on 'self driving' as their answer to that are now getting pressure from investors on why they keep sinking more money into a problem it doesn't seem they'll ever be able to solve

It truly is the issue of not knowing if it will ever be solved. The uncertainty of progress and uncertainty of a timeline is what really irks investors (who are right to question the investment given it is dragging down the not-quite-profitable main business)

Re: Subsidiary of Toyota to acquire Lyft’s self-driving car division

#194
post #3

Well... "In December 2020, Lyft announced that it will launch a multi-city U.S. robotaxi service in 2023 with Motional." https://www.reuters.com/article/autos-selfdriving-lyft-idUSK...

Yeah, and every divorcee promised to be with their spouse forever. Sometimes it doesn't work out, my friend.

Re: Subsidiary of Toyota to acquire Lyft’s self-driving car division

#195

Not surprisingly it takes a lot of capital to make serious in-roads into self-driving. Ultimately if your main business is not profitable it is hard to justify spending 100m a year on L5 with no reasonable end in sight. I think this is why only Waymo or Cruise or one of the other well-funded-by-profitable-other-business will continue to progress towards the true self-driving vehicle... its just too damn expensive and…

What will happen afterward? They'll get acquired by Uber or something?

Probably the opposite, instant massive userbase, then just slowly phase out the meat bags.

Re: Subsidiary of Toyota to acquire Lyft’s self-driving car division

#196
post #132
post #3

Well... "In December 2020, Lyft announced that it will launch a multi-city U.S. robotaxi service in 2023 with Motional." https://www.reuters.com/article/autos-selfdriving-lyft-idUSK...

Urbanites have self-driving. They just need to pay a sub-minimum wage driver to do it. Oh, real self-driving you say. That's going to be on a subset of highways in a subset of weather conditions.

And it will happen with trucks first. Either a lead truck running a convoy or remote piloting via drone technology.

Why? Because a truck does 500 miles per day. A self driving truck can do 1000. Amazon cannot exist without long haul trucking

Re: Subsidiary of Toyota to acquire Lyft’s self-driving car division

#197

I feel like all these self-driving companies aren't actually in it to achieve the success. They know it's a long way off, they're just trying to hit enough milestones to get scooped up by somebody bigger. Perhaps with the exception of Tesla, who I have no explanation for. Self-driving cars are so far down the totem-pole in my opinion--if we're going to have to rework our roadways in order to accommodate self-driving…

I agree with you 100% but I'll try to condense what I think is the biggest hurdle for buy in. People want "their" car to be smart, they don't want "our" roads to be smart.

I'm generalising but I hope you get what I'm saying.

Re: Subsidiary of Toyota to acquire Lyft’s self-driving car division

#198

I feel like all these self-driving companies aren't actually in it to achieve the success. They know it's a long way off, they're just trying to hit enough milestones to get scooped up by somebody bigger. Perhaps with the exception of Tesla, who I have no explanation for. Self-driving cars are so far down the totem-pole in my opinion--if we're going to have to rework our roadways in order to accommodate self-driving…

Software would be great... if it worked. It's going to take a very clear failure of all self-driving software for anyone to even possibly invest in smart roads. Smart roads don't seem to be a startup thing to do - massive friction (like most infrastructure) and no promise of fantastic profits.

Imagine the investors' horror of building smart roads a few years before someone figures out a pure software solution. It's hard to be sure that it won't happen.

Re: Subsidiary of Toyota to acquire Lyft’s self-driving car division

#199
post #161

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I saw Levandowski do a presentation of self-driving at an Uber all-hands and it was then and there that I knew that self-driving is 20+ years away. The example video showed so many small things that we take for granted as a human driver that would need to be built in or hand coded that AI or neural nets would never be able to get. There just isn’t a way that you can train every single little thing that could cause an…

I don’t know much about the space, but always found it interesting that most of the conversation is about autonomous driving for individuals, which to me seems to be the last step after e.g cargo outside cities and public transportation has been automated. I reckon because the latter are less sexy, lead to job losses and maybe require more public acceptance? I know there is a lot of work being done in this areas as w…

A city bus carrying 20 people has 5% the drivers-per-person that an individual vehicle has. The driverless system only would save 5% the human effort that it would for a solo vehicle, so it needs to be 20x as good before it's worthwhile. Put another way, the bus with 20 riders is already equivalent to automating 19 cars.

Roughly the same idea with freight - a single truck driver serves the needs of many people.

Re: Subsidiary of Toyota to acquire Lyft’s self-driving car division

#200

I feel like all these self-driving companies aren't actually in it to achieve the success. They know it's a long way off, they're just trying to hit enough milestones to get scooped up by somebody bigger. Perhaps with the exception of Tesla, who I have no explanation for. Self-driving cars are so far down the totem-pole in my opinion--if we're going to have to rework our roadways in order to accommodate self-driving…

I agree with you 100% but I'll try to condense what I think is the biggest hurdle for buy in. People want "their" car to be smart, they don't want "our" roads to be smart. I'm generalising but I hope you get what I'm saying.

I get it--pride. But mostly, it's easier to sell.
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