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CEOs are hugely expensive – why not automate them?

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Re: CEOs are hugely expensive – why not automate them?

#201
post #187

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think you might be missing the part that says "All numbers in thousands" on that table you've linked.

No he isn't.

I think you might be misunderstanding what "All numbers in thousands" means on that table she linked.

EDIT: To be clear, Walmart's revenue in 2020 was 559 Billion with a B[0].

We can see on that table[1] that if we take the values listed in the "Total Revenue" row (559 Million with an M, 523 Million with an M, etc) and multiply them by 1,000 according to the directions ("All numbers in thousands") on the chart that we get a result which aligns with reality.

To be even more clear, we can take the values listed in the "Gross Profit" row, multiply by 1,000 as instructed by the directions, and see that yes Walmart's annual *gross profit* is ~130B

138,836,000 * 1,000 = 138,836,000,000

[0]https://www.forbes.com/sites/shelleykohan/2021/02/18/walmart...

[1]https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/WMT/financials/

Re: CEOs are hugely expensive – why not automate them?

#202

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They should then be compensated with a leveraged long-term derivative product that pays based on the stock difference between their company and the industry, 5 to 10 years apart. "You want to be insanely rich? Here's a huge company that's not yours as a resource, now make it so it is the best one in 10 years!"

I find this statement strange. Curious if others experience aligns with mine: Being a CEO is all consuming. You don’t want to be a parent and a CEO, cause the company comes first. You don’t want to be married and a CEO, because the company comes first. If you could “automate” this job, the developers behind the scripts become de facto CEO. Their scripts cannot fail. They will have to make the same sacrifices as the m…

When I worked in the game industry QA folks were regularly asked to put in twelve to sixteen hours a day - they're sacrificing their health and lives for their jobs but without any promise of payout. Ditto for pretty much anyone else working on the bottom 3/4ths of the economy.

Re: CEOs are hugely expensive – why not automate them?

#203

CEOs aren't paid for the day-to-day value they provide to the company. They're paid for the long-term, strategic value the owners think they might provide the company in comparison to other candidates. So if you think CEO Candidate X will make you a 3x return on your investment, but CEO Candidate Y will make you a 5x return, it's almost certainly worth it to pay him/her the extra $200K to get you there, if that's the…

Sure. Quite. But why not try developing an AI to replace them that can make you a >5x return?

Because ML (this is what people mean when using the term AI which is ambiguous) needs some data to learn from, and this - apart from the fact that learning on a living organism like a company can be extremely expensive - poses several problems:

1. What data do you use? Past data of the same company? Data of other companies? Which ones? Past best performers?

2. Actually identifying all pieces of information that are relevant for decision making is a challenge in itself, as we're not talking about internal metrics but also external events and trends. Choosing and collecting all these is a challenge in itself. Moreover, it is not a one-off action, it needs to be reevaluated regularly, i.e. you need to be actively looking for factors influencing the performance of the company. Mind you, not all of them are readily measurable.

3. Part of the work of CEO is creative, i.e. not extrapolating based on past events but looking for completely new avenues and opportunities. Building such a complex system would be extremely expensive, although I agree this challenge is very interesting.

Not to mention the fact that an extremely important job of the CEO is to deal with people, not just the data. This point alone can make a difference between a well- and badly-managed company.

Re: CEOs are hugely expensive – why not automate them?

#204

CEOs aren't paid for the day-to-day value they provide to the company. They're paid for the long-term, strategic value the owners think they might provide the company in comparison to other candidates. So if you think CEO Candidate X will make you a 3x return on your investment, but CEO Candidate Y will make you a 5x return, it's almost certainly worth it to pay him/her the extra $200K to get you there, if that's the…

And you have only one CEO - so their comp is expensive, but not hugely expensive relative to total org costs. Apple has Tim Cook. In terms of investors evaluation of his ability to generate profits - let's say apple is going to do $400B in sales, and you think Tim's approach over time will yield a 3% improved margin. Is he then worth $12B/year? CEO's have enormous influence on a companies direction. Investors will au…

> ...you think Tim's approach over time will yield a 3% improved margin

It's not so much about a little extra yield, it's about not running the company into the ground, which is far harder than it may appear.

If a CEO manages to leave the company in as good a condition as they found it, that's already worth a fortune.

Re: CEOs are hugely expensive – why not automate them?

#205

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Isn't part of the problem the overlap between action and effect? I might join a business as CEO and it does really well for 5 years because of the previous CEO, I could claim that it is my leadership and ask for my bonus. On the other hand, maybe I do well but my successor is an idiot and makes the company tank so now I won't get my 10 year bonus because they screwed it all up. Unless your idea only works for CEOs wh…

this is the problem with any leadership position in general, congress, president.... etc I think the best way to address this is to provide standardize kpi monitoring.

When a measure becomes a target, it ceases to be a good measure

Especially for a CEO, who has quite a bit of power to optimize for any measure, it's going to be very hard to craft a measure that gives the results you want and can't be gamed. The most likely outcome is something that's just a worse version of the stock price, because the stock price is just a forward-looking approximation of net income, which is what you'd mostly want to optimize for anyway (ignoring things like B corps).

Re: CEOs are hugely expensive – why not automate them?

#206
post #138

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Dividends ought to not be at a tax disadvantage over capital gains for this reason.

Are they not? I thought qualified dividends (that is, dividends on stocks that have been held long enough to qualify for long-term capital gains) are taxed at the long-term capital gains rate.

Dividends are taxable at the time of distribution; the price effects of a buyback are taxable when shares are sold [1], and delayed taxes are preferable to immediate taxes.

[1] unless the holder has elected for trader tax treatment, in which case shares are marked to market at the end of the tax year

Re: CEOs are hugely expensive – why not automate them?

#207
I would love it if someone could explain to me like I'm 5, why it is exactly, that CEOs are so highly paid.

I get that it's hard. I get that there are long hours. I get that it requires long-term strategic thinking. None of that helps me understand O(100M) "compensation."

I'm pretty sure that executives get paid so much because of (a) their rolodex (ie. their ability to get certain people on the phone) and (b) because the world has -- not accidentally -- become convinced that it must be so and now it is that way. And everyone believes that were it not for O(100M) CEOs companies would fail.

Lots of jobs are hard and require extremely smart, gifted people. And yet somehow only executives get huge "compensation." Someone please break it down for me Barney-style because it seems like bullshit to me.

Re: CEOs are hugely expensive – why not automate them?

#208
post #187

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No he isn't.

I think you might be misunderstanding what "All numbers in thousands" means on that table she linked. EDIT: To be clear, Walmart's revenue in 2020 was 559 Billion with a B[0]. We can see on that table[1] that if we take the values listed in the "Total Revenue" row (559 Million with an M, 523 Million with an M, etc) and multiply them by 1,000 according to the directions ("All numbers in thousands") on the chart that w…

Why are you trolling on HN?

Edit: yes, Walmart's revenue is 500+ billion. What does that have to do with anything discussed here? temp667's comment is correct.

Edit 2: first you didn't understand what "revenue" is, now you don't understand what "gross profit" is.

Re: CEOs are hugely expensive – why not automate them?

#209

I too used to think that CEOs were a waste of resources, and that they had minimal if any impact on most companies. But I think people grossly underestimate how important CEOs are, because the vast majority of them do a decent job. When you swap out somebody who does a decent job for another person who performs at about the same level it's not really that noticeable. That said, you'll come to appreciate those "decent…

> who runs the company at the top is critical to the success of most companies.

I think it's culture and power/organizational structure that determines this. Culture is disseminated from the top down, due to the power structure. If you remove the power from the CEO, their value goes away. If you change the culture without the CEO, their value goes away. So you don't need a CEO if you can force the company to change its culture and power structure a different way.

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