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‘Insanely cheap energy’: solar power continues to shock the world

theguardian.com

241–250 of 339 posts

Re: ‘Insanely cheap energy’: solar power continues to shock the world

#241
post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

https://carbontracker.org/solar-and-wind-can-meet-world-ener... https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=26928343 Storage is a component, but renewables will get so cheap we'll overbuild and throw away (curtail) the excess versus optimizing for storage. The world has sufficient lithium reserves for storage and EV demands.

Sure :) 500B€ (yes, half a trillion !) invested in wind turbines in Germany over 20 years. Check the result https://www.electricitymap.org/zone/DE , Germany is ~300g of CO²/kwh, France is 50g. Why ? Because when there is no wind, no sun, you need power. And then you're burning gaz or coal. So you "erase" all those 0CO² days. Also solar panel efficiency fades over time, you loose 50% of efficiency after a few decades.…

> Also solar panel efficiency fades over time, you loose 50% of efficiency after a few decades.

Perhaps it's more relevant that the solar panels that were installed decades ago were 50% less efficient; that's technological progress.

https://sites.lafayette.edu/egrs352-sp14-pv/technology/histo...

Progress that was enabled substantially by there being a market that would buy the early inefficient solar panels, providing capital for further research.

Re: ‘Insanely cheap energy’: solar power continues to shock the world

#242

Is there a way to invest directly in solar to offset your personal use, without installing it directly on your house/land? My existing house isn’t particularly suitable from a cost perspective to install solar on (clay tile roof, a good 20 years left at least). I also don’t really want to manage an installation project, nor own the maintenance and risk. But I would pay to directly offset my consumption. Something lik…

There are companies like https://www.peoplepowersolar.org/ were money can be invested. I'm not from the US, though. In germany, there are about 1000 companies like this.

Re: ‘Insanely cheap energy’: solar power continues to shock the world

#243

Relevant quote: "Every time you double producing capacity, you reduce the cost of PV solar by 28%." Current worldwide PV manufacturing capacity is roughly 165 GW [1] [2], with a utility scale price close to $0.01/kWh [3]. Manufacturing capacity is doubling every ~4 years. Global PV capacity in service is ~600 GW. IEA Average global annual capacity additions in main and accelerated cases, 2023-2025: https://www.iea.or…

Let's run the numbers! - Every 4 years our production doubles - Meaning every year our production capacity increases by .5 (or 5 times every decade). - The first year (2020) starts at 165GWh capacity production - The total energy use of the world (in 2013) was 157,000 TWh. - Annual growth in energy demand was 40% between 1990 and 2008. - 20% for the US - 150% for China Let's calculate solar energy generation capacity…

Mining is indeed needed to produce some things. But then those things are not expendables and can be recycled after decades of use. And we're no longer mining stuff that we literally use once to burn it like oil, gas, coal, etc. I'd call that a net win.

LNG, nuclear, and coal are each way too expensive long term. With solar prices continuing to drop, this is only going to get worse. Coal is already being decommissioned in many countries. China is an exception but only because they are growing so rapidly that they can't keep up with clean energy deployments (despite having the largest deployment of that world wide). That's an effect that is short term. They actually announced their grid will be 100% renewables by 2060.

New gas plants (the least expensive of those 3) at this point don't make a lot of sense either. The investment pitch is horrible: we'll be producing energy at about 3-4x of the current price of renewables for the next 50 years. By the time those 50 years are over it might be as bad as 30x. It goes from bad to worse. Nuclear needs to get a lot cheaper to be interesting for investors.

Grid infrastructure is indeed a short term challenge. Having more solar and wind on the grid is causing grid operators to evolve what they are doing to fix that. A few decades is a long time to address issues though. Batteries and cables seem to be what is needed here. European and North American grids seem to have issues getting permits for new cables. E.g. Germany needs more north south cables so people in the south can actually use the wind power generated in the north. But putting a few hundred km of cables in place seems to be a hard problem from a bureaucratic point of view. It's not a technical problem though. We've known how to make electrical cables for a long time. Though there is of course some innovation in that space as well to enable more efficient long distance connections.

Cars are electrifying at the pace we can ramp up battery production. Even so, there are a lot of cars in the world and most of the new ones are still not electric. That will flip around towards the end of this decade. From then, decline of ICE could be pretty rapid. The cost advantages for owners will drive this.

EVs are a growth business in a covid year and are very profitable. So, car manufacturers are already going as fast as they can here. Interestingly, you see the same kind of learning effect with battery as you see with solar panels. And with wind power too. All of this combined means things could go a lot quicker than some companies hope/expect.

Re: ‘Insanely cheap energy’: solar power continues to shock the world

#244
post #213

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There's also the confounding matter of physical size - a prefecture level "city" like Wuxi is going to be nearly 20x the physical area of Birmingham (10x the size including the surrounding area) so holding a million people at the time doesn't mean it's necessarily a big population center even before comparing to what's "normal" in the country.

Wuxi, at 5.03 million people (6.6 million in the prefecture it governs) has about three times the population of Birmingham, England (1.1 million inhabitants, 3.7 million in the metropolitan era). The Wuxi prefecture covers 4600 km², the Birmingham area 600 km², a ratio of about 8:1; the cities proper are 1640 km² (the five districts of Wuxi with the 5 million population, excluding Jiangyin and Yixin) and 268 km² (Bir…

> 02010 > 02019

I have no idea what your point is, because I got stuck every time at "why write years like that?".

It even looks like a postcode, in a sentence about city populations and areas.

Re: ‘Insanely cheap energy’: solar power continues to shock the world

#245
post #213

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Wuxi, at 5.03 million people (6.6 million in the prefecture it governs) has about three times the population of Birmingham, England (1.1 million inhabitants, 3.7 million in the metropolitan era). The Wuxi prefecture covers 4600 km², the Birmingham area 600 km², a ratio of about 8:1; the cities proper are 1640 km² (the five districts of Wuxi with the 5 million population, excluding Jiangyin and Yixin) and 268 km² (Bir…

> 02010 > 02019 I have no idea what your point is, because I got stuck every time at "why write years like that?". It even looks like a postcode, in a sentence about city populations and areas.

[deleted]

Re: ‘Insanely cheap energy’: solar power continues to shock the world

#246
This is a story of interplay between science/scientists, business/business people, and politics and politicians.

Look how Hermann Scheer, ridiculed as "the pope of solar energy" by his opponents here in germany, described his intentions: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5GokiQDQHp0

He was the originator of the german renewable energy act: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/German_Renewable_Energy_Source... that forced power utilities to pay for solar energy produced by people owning solar panels at a specific and slowly decreasing price. His efforts led to the the creation of a market for solar energy systems in Germany.

Re: ‘Insanely cheap energy’: solar power continues to shock the world

#247
post #213

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Wuxi, at 5.03 million people (6.6 million in the prefecture it governs) has about three times the population of Birmingham, England (1.1 million inhabitants, 3.7 million in the metropolitan era). The Wuxi prefecture covers 4600 km², the Birmingham area 600 km², a ratio of about 8:1; the cities proper are 1640 km² (the five districts of Wuxi with the 5 million population, excluding Jiangyin and Yixin) and 268 km² (Bir…

> 02010 > 02019 I have no idea what your point is, because I got stuck every time at "why write years like that?". It even looks like a postcode, in a sentence about city populations and areas.

https://blog.longnow.org/02013/12/31/long-now-years-five-dig...

Re: ‘Insanely cheap energy’: solar power continues to shock the world

#248

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think researchers underestimated how much solar simply “makes sense” to the average person. Once the price is reasonable enough, people are very easily able to latch onto the idea of using what they already know and feel - the sun’s heat. Whenever I mention the solar panels in my parents house, the first question is always about the price. When I tell them they will break even in a few years, their next question is…

> I tell them they will break even in a few years Then why don't more companies offer to become your electricity provider and install the solar panels for free? They could say "We promise that your energy bills will be cheaper this year than last year (as long as you don't use more energy), and within a few years you'll own the panels and can switch to a different electricity provider."

They should start with large parking lots in the southwest. The installation will be predictable and it would provide valuable shade for parked cars.

Re: ‘Insanely cheap energy’: solar power continues to shock the world

#249
post #102

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I actually talked about this in a previous comment: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=25283461

>> Of that $15k, $4.3k was for the panels themselves, $2k for the inverter, $1k for mounting hardware, and $8k for installation. What about on-site battery? In any case, $15k is still a bit too steep for me, not because I can't afford it but because I want something that'll pay for itself in less than 5 years. My electricity bill is about $150/mo. so a solar roof doesn't make sense financially, even if I'm able to se…

Heat water with it during the day, if you live in colder climate you can use it for heating as well, but that would mean of course having proper radiator system installed.

Re: ‘Insanely cheap energy’: solar power continues to shock the world

#250

Relevant quote: "Every time you double producing capacity, you reduce the cost of PV solar by 28%." Current worldwide PV manufacturing capacity is roughly 165 GW [1] [2], with a utility scale price close to $0.01/kWh [3]. Manufacturing capacity is doubling every ~4 years. Global PV capacity in service is ~600 GW. IEA Average global annual capacity additions in main and accelerated cases, 2023-2025: https://www.iea.or…

I think researchers underestimated how much solar simply “makes sense” to the average person. Once the price is reasonable enough, people are very easily able to latch onto the idea of using what they already know and feel - the sun’s heat. Whenever I mention the solar panels in my parents house, the first question is always about the price. When I tell them they will break even in a few years, their next question is…

> There is never any skepticism about the technology, the safety, the long term impact (as you would have if someone was setting up a nuclear or gas power plant). They simply “get it”

This is also a bad thing, because there are some real issues with PV panels too: leaking toxic materials, recycling problems, environmental side-effects because you need to mine for rare earths and critical metals, etc. It's far from being as simple and as clean as many people imagine, and not taking into consideration all this might cost us all a lot of damage to nature and wildlife in future. I don't want to get into nuclear vs. solar energy flame wars here, primarily because I don't feel that I have enough information and knowledge to be able to perceive all the possible side-effects of each type of energy - but the fact that world is so deeply biased one way for solar, the other way fro nuclear energy definitely will not help the best judgment on this very important topic.

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