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‘Insanely cheap energy’: solar power continues to shock the world

theguardian.com

11–20 of 339 posts

Re: ‘Insanely cheap energy’: solar power continues to shock the world

#11
post #9

All this energy ! Can't be stored (don't tell me about lithium, please do the math…), and it's not there at night.

If the solar is almost free, you can shift investment to storage, transmission, demand response, and other (more expensive) low carbon generation.

One would expect a similar cost decline curve for batteries [1] once every automaker is required to buy batteries when they can only sell EVs.

[1] https://news.mit.edu/2021/lithium-ion-battery-costs-0323

Re: ‘Insanely cheap energy’: solar power continues to shock the world

#12
post #9

All this energy ! Can't be stored (don't tell me about lithium, please do the math…), and it's not there at night.

If the solar is almost free, you can shift investment to storage, transmission, demand response, and other (more expensive) low carbon generation. One would expect a similar cost decline curve for batteries [1] once every automaker is required to buy batteries when they can only sell EVs. [1] https://news.mit.edu/2021/lithium-ion-battery-costs-0323

Please do the math, check how much you'll need to cover the consumption of a small city for a night.

Just an idea, you have ~500kg of lithium-battery in an average EV for a few hundred km of autonomy.

95% of stored electricity today is water pumped behind dam. You want to store electricity, build dam.

There is only a few decades of lithium left to be extracted by the way.

Re: ‘Insanely cheap energy’: solar power continues to shock the world

#13
post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If the solar is almost free, you can shift investment to storage, transmission, demand response, and other (more expensive) low carbon generation. One would expect a similar cost decline curve for batteries [1] once every automaker is required to buy batteries when they can only sell EVs. [1] https://news.mit.edu/2021/lithium-ion-battery-costs-0323

Please do the math, check how much you'll need to cover the consumption of a small city for a night. Just an idea, you have ~500kg of lithium-battery in an average EV for a few hundred km of autonomy. 95% of stored electricity today is water pumped behind dam. You want to store electricity, build dam. There is only a few decades of lithium left to be extracted by the way.

https://carbontracker.org/solar-and-wind-can-meet-world-ener...

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=26928343

Storage is a component, but renewables will get so cheap we'll overbuild and throw away (curtail) the excess versus optimizing for storage.

The world has sufficient lithium reserves for storage and EV demands.

Re: ‘Insanely cheap energy’: solar power continues to shock the world

#14

This is why pushing for free markets is the most effective solution for combating fossil fuel dependencies.

If you push for free markets, Big Oil isn't going to be the first to yield. If we can't get rid of CO₂ subsidies, solar subsidies are necessary.

Re: ‘Insanely cheap energy’: solar power continues to shock the world

#15
post #9

All this energy ! Can't be stored (don't tell me about lithium, please do the math…), and it's not there at night.

It still means power for air conditioning is ~free during the day when it's most needed, and you could pre-cool or pre-heat a bulk block with high heat capacity, then slowly use the heat/cold during the day.

You can charge the electric cars when there's an excess, so in particular all the extra load from electric car charging that some people were so worried about is no longer a concern.

If it gets cheap enough, you can overbuild capacity so that you have just enough power if it's a bit overcast, and way too much when there's sun (since solar cells can be safely "turned off" as far as I know, unlike conventional plants).

If we now get some process for capturing carbon from the air where electricity is the main cost (i.e. overbuilding capacity and using it only 20% of the time is affordable), we now have a place to put all the excess electricity during peak.

Re: ‘Insanely cheap energy’: solar power continues to shock the world

#16
post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Please do the math, check how much you'll need to cover the consumption of a small city for a night. Just an idea, you have ~500kg of lithium-battery in an average EV for a few hundred km of autonomy. 95% of stored electricity today is water pumped behind dam. You want to store electricity, build dam. There is only a few decades of lithium left to be extracted by the way.

https://carbontracker.org/solar-and-wind-can-meet-world-ener... https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=26928343 Storage is a component, but renewables will get so cheap we'll overbuild and throw away (curtail) the excess versus optimizing for storage. The world has sufficient lithium reserves for storage and EV demands.

Sure :) 500B€ (yes, half a trillion !) invested in wind turbines in Germany over 20 years.

Check the result https://www.electricitymap.org/zone/DE, Germany is ~300g of CO²/kwh, France is 50g.

Why ? Because when there is no wind, no sun, you need power. And then you're burning gaz or coal. So you "erase" all those 0CO² days.

Also solar panel efficiency fades over time, you loose 50% of efficiency after a few decades. Wind-turbines have 25y life expectancy.

Re: ‘Insanely cheap energy’: solar power continues to shock the world

#17
post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If the solar is almost free, you can shift investment to storage, transmission, demand response, and other (more expensive) low carbon generation. One would expect a similar cost decline curve for batteries [1] once every automaker is required to buy batteries when they can only sell EVs. [1] https://news.mit.edu/2021/lithium-ion-battery-costs-0323

Please do the math, check how much you'll need to cover the consumption of a small city for a night. Just an idea, you have ~500kg of lithium-battery in an average EV for a few hundred km of autonomy. 95% of stored electricity today is water pumped behind dam. You want to store electricity, build dam. There is only a few decades of lithium left to be extracted by the way.

I run the utilities at night because electricity is cheaper then. I'd run them during the day if I had solar.

Re: ‘Insanely cheap energy’: solar power continues to shock the world

#18
post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

https://carbontracker.org/solar-and-wind-can-meet-world-ener... https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=26928343 Storage is a component, but renewables will get so cheap we'll overbuild and throw away (curtail) the excess versus optimizing for storage. The world has sufficient lithium reserves for storage and EV demands.

Sure :) 500B€ (yes, half a trillion !) invested in wind turbines in Germany over 20 years. Check the result https://www.electricitymap.org/zone/DE , Germany is ~300g of CO²/kwh, France is 50g. Why ? Because when there is no wind, no sun, you need power. And then you're burning gaz or coal. So you "erase" all those 0CO² days. Also solar panel efficiency fades over time, you loose 50% of efficiency after a few decades.…

I thought it was because Germany shut down its nuclear power plants and ramped its coal generation up? [1] Germany poorly managing its power grid doesn’t imply that renewables aren’t economically rational; it implies Germany makes irrational national policy. France is primarily nuclear powered, as you point out with their low CO2 emission footprint (compare the generation mixes of both countries in ElectricityMap, I’m familiar having contributed generation data for Europe).

Solar panels retain 90% of their production rating after 25 years, and can be recycled at end of life, as can wind turbine blades (with the turbines repowered, typically generating more power than the previous equipment).

What’s with the FUD? Definitely feels like there’s an agenda when the data is objectively clear.

[1] https://www.wired.com/story/germany-rejected-nuclear-power-a...

Re: ‘Insanely cheap energy’: solar power continues to shock the world

#19
post #9

All this energy ! Can't be stored (don't tell me about lithium, please do the math…), and it's not there at night.

It still means power for air conditioning is ~free during the day when it's most needed, and you could pre-cool or pre-heat a bulk block with high heat capacity, then slowly use the heat/cold during the day. You can charge the electric cars when there's an excess, so in particular all the extra load from electric car charging that some people were so worried about is no longer a concern. If it gets cheap enough, you…

I think that you don't see how much land you actually need. Maybe in America there is plenty of space, but in Europe it's way more difficult. To replace one nuclear reactor, you need ~ half of Paris in solar panel. And still need energy "at night".

Yes heating water, or cooling places are nice. But your trains ain't gonna work "only when there is sun".

If you need backup at one moment, you need 0C0² backup and basically: Or you build dam, or you build nuclear plants.

If you build nuclear plants, it's basically dumb to have plenty of renewable next to it…

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