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Earlier quoted context omitted.
You can be smart, intelligent, and educated without being wise. In fact, it’s the norm.
I agree. I would say intelligence is what you have naturally, education is what you acquire in school, and wisdom is what you acquire through experience. These are not interchangeable.
I think anyone who has inhabited planet earth for more than 25-30 years or so starts to realize that most of people are either: 1. “Geniuses” of speculation and every topic under the sun (overconfident braggarts that make sweeping claims that are difficult to criticize because they are so general; such dreamers talk big but really have little expertise) 2. People that actually are “deep-knowledge” experts, but only i…
I think anyone who has inhabited planet earth for more than 25-30 years or so starts to realize that most of people are either: 1. “Geniuses” of speculation and every topic under the sun (overconfident braggarts that make sweeping claims that are difficult to criticize because they are so general; such dreamers talk big but really have little expertise) 2. People that actually are “deep-knowledge” experts, but only i…
https://www.smbc-comics.com/comic/2011-12-28
You do have a point though (why I recall decade old comics as conversation pieces and not people's names... sigh) There are a lot of people on "mount stupid", in fact the chance that someone talking about a subject is trapped in the overconfidence of mount stupid is very high. In other words, most of the people you'll hear talking about something are entirely full of shit. (this is a large source of problems in our time)
There are people who don't know anything and realize it, then there are a whole lot of people who know enough to be aware that their knowledge is limited and don't want to try to talk over the overconfident folks (refuting someone sure of themselves is a lot more difficult than jabbering about your own feelings)
The people who really do know a whole lot and have the confidence to match are rare.
One thing that sticks out on HN are long discussions about things that folks have not much of an idea about. Non-computer-related engineering and farming threads are usually a shitshow of overconfident nonsense. Something to notice about computer people is they have the confidence that they can figure anything out (generally good) but frequently lack the wisdom to be aware of their knowledge (generally bad).
I have doubts about this study. It could be that participants are thinking about the questions differently than the author anticipates. For example, one could argue that a stop sign has ten sides and not eight because it is a physical object with a front and back. And if it has circular bolt holes for mounting to a post then you could also say it has many more sides than ten.
I have doubts about this study. It could be that participants are thinking about the questions differently than the author anticipates. For example, one could argue that a stop sign has ten sides and not eight because it is a physical object with a front and back. And if it has circular bolt holes for mounting to a post then you could also say it has many more sides than ten.
"sides" usually is a term describing 2d objects,
3d objects are described by faces, edges, and vertices
No, if I answered 95% confidence on all 10 then my estimate of the probability I got at least one wrong is 1 - .95^10 = 40%. Whereas if I answered 100% confidence on 9 and 50% confidence on one, then i am predicting 50% probability that I got 9, and 50% probability I got all 10.
I assume the paper is riddled with similar mathematical errors. You can’t just average probabilities together like that.
I think anyone who has inhabited planet earth for more than 25-30 years or so starts to realize that most of people are either: 1. “Geniuses” of speculation and every topic under the sun (overconfident braggarts that make sweeping claims that are difficult to criticize because they are so general; such dreamers talk big but really have little expertise) 2. People that actually are “deep-knowledge” experts, but only i…
There's a subset of 1 who are good at making wild guesses while leaving open the possibility they're wrong so 2 has an opportunity to share what they know.
It reads like someone is just grumpy dividing it up like that.
I think anyone who has inhabited planet earth for more than 25-30 years or so starts to realize that most of people are either: 1. “Geniuses” of speculation and every topic under the sun (overconfident braggarts that make sweeping claims that are difficult to criticize because they are so general; such dreamers talk big but really have little expertise) 2. People that actually are “deep-knowledge” experts, but only i…
I'm skeptical of any sorting of things into two bins, people or otherwise. https://www.smbc-comics.com/comic/2011-12-28 You do have a point though (why I recall decade old comics as conversation pieces and not people's names... sigh) There are a lot of people on "mount stupid", in fact the chance that someone talking about a subject is trapped in the overconfidence of mount stupid is very high. In other words, most o…
Reminds me of the saying that there are 10 kinds of people in the world: those who understand binary and those who don’t.
The book 'How to measure anything' talks about how to improve your own calibration. From what I recall (it's been a while since I read it), the author recommended testing yourself to estimate a bunch of questions with numerical answers. For example: what's the height of the empire state building? You write down a range for each answer, trying to make the range narrow enough that you're just about 80% confident that t…
Job applicants for junior trading (market making) roles are often given similar questions. An example question might be: "Make me a market on the height of the empire state building." By this the interviewer means: what price would you buy at and what price would you sell at? So for example I might respond 1000/2000. which means I'm buying at 1000ft and selling at 2000ft. Presumably, I believe the true height is some…