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Smart Folk Often Full of Crap, Study Finds

themultidisciplinarian.com

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Re: Smart Folk Often Full of Crap, Study Finds

#23
post #4

I am not completely sure I believe that Black Magin Woman was first performed by Feetwood Mac [sic]. And I confess I have no idea what a stop side is. But apparently I was correct to guess that it does not have six sides. And I remain dubious that the Mona Lisa was painted by someone other than Leonardo.

Google will easily convince you of the first two. The last one is speculation.

Google doesn't tell me word one about "Black Magin Woman" and "Feetwood Mac"; or about "stop sides". If it tells you, I feel 100% confident that you are hallucinating.

The quiz reliably informed me that I am consistently underconfident.

Re: Smart Folk Often Full of Crap, Study Finds

#24
post #8

The book 'How to measure anything' talks about how to improve your own calibration. From what I recall (it's been a while since I read it), the author recommended testing yourself to estimate a bunch of questions with numerical answers. For example: what's the height of the empire state building? You write down a range for each answer, trying to make the range narrow enough that you're just about 80% confident that t…

Job applicants for junior trading (market making) roles are often given similar questions. An example question might be: "Make me a market on the height of the empire state building." By this the interviewer means: what price would you buy at and what price would you sell at? So for example I might respond 1000/2000. which means I'm buying at 1000ft and selling at 2000ft. Presumably, I believe the true height is some…

Your factor #1 above (about adverse selection through trading with a well-informed counterparty) reminded me of something I read in 'Trading and Exchanges'.

The section 'The Adverse Selection Spread Component' says that dealers will set their bid/ask spreads to account for the information they will get when someone hits their bid or whatever. So they need to estimate the probability that their next trade is with an informed counterparty.

If that probability is high, then they'll quote a higher spread.

Conversely, if they are quoting for retail order flow, they may assume they're never dealing with informed counterparties, and can offer a tighter spread.

Re: Smart Folk Often Full of Crap, Study Finds

#25
post #18
post #4

I am not completely sure I believe that Black Magin Woman was first performed by Feetwood Mac [sic]. And I confess I have no idea what a stop side is. But apparently I was correct to guess that it does not have six sides. And I remain dubious that the Mona Lisa was painted by someone other than Leonardo.

The stop sign question almost got me, though I was pretty sure it wasn’t six even before I glanced out the window at one.

The question was not about stop signs. I very strongly doubt you spotted a "stop side" out your window. Even if you have a cold.

Re: Smart Folk Often Full of Crap, Study Finds

#26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You can be smart, intelligent, and educated without being wise. In fact, it’s the norm.

I agree. I would say intelligence is what you have naturally, education is what you acquire in school, and wisdom is what you acquire through experience. These are not interchangeable.

I'd say smart is what you have naturally, education is what you acquire in school, intelligence is a snapshot of what you actively remember from education plus what you've learned via recent experience, and wisdom is a scratchpad where your brain makes a note whenever it comes across something that's relevant to all of the above.

Re: Smart Folk Often Full of Crap, Study Finds

#27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You can be smart, intelligent, and educated without being wise. In fact, it’s the norm.

I agree. I would say intelligence is what you have naturally, education is what you acquire in school, and wisdom is what you acquire through experience. These are not interchangeable.

I prefer to think of it as wisdom is what you know intrinsically, education is what you have learned, intelligence is your capacity for learning

Re: Smart Folk Often Full of Crap, Study Finds

#28
I have doubts about this study. It could be that participants are thinking about the questions differently than the author anticipates.

For example, one could argue that a stop sign has ten sides and not eight because it is a physical object with a front and back. And if it has circular bolt holes for mounting to a post then you could also say it has many more sides than ten.

Re: Smart Folk Often Full of Crap, Study Finds

#29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You can be smart, intelligent, and educated without being wise. In fact, it’s the norm.

I agree. I would say intelligence is what you have naturally, education is what you acquire in school, and wisdom is what you acquire through experience. These are not interchangeable.

Like the confuscious quote:

By three methods we may learn wisdom: First, by reflection, which is noblest; Second, by imitation, which is easiest; and third by experience, which is the bitterest.

Re: Smart Folk Often Full of Crap, Study Finds

#30

I think anyone who has inhabited planet earth for more than 25-30 years or so starts to realize that most of people are either: 1. “Geniuses” of speculation and every topic under the sun (overconfident braggarts that make sweeping claims that are difficult to criticize because they are so general; such dreamers talk big but really have little expertise) 2. People that actually are “deep-knowledge” experts, but only i…

There's a subset of 1 who are good at making wild guesses while leaving open the possibility they're wrong so 2 has an opportunity to share what they know.
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