Live data from Hacker News

The real reason to end the death penalty

paulgraham.com

461–470 of 546 posts

Re: The real reason to end the death penalty

#461

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What does “beyond a reasonable doubt” mean in probability terms? Most people say 90-95%, which suggests even Graham’s 4% number (which is on the high end of such estimates, see: https://dc.law.utah.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1130&con... ) is actually consistent with the system working as designed. Also, while you’re thinking about that, what’s your estimate of the probability that Derek Chauvin’s negligence was…

try to tell the family of people in the 4% that the system is working as designed.

This argument has no bearing on whether the system is working as designed. I mean, yes, we should change the design, but nobody was claiming that the design was fine.

Re: The real reason to end the death penalty

#462
post #443

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think most people interpret the task of assigning a percentage to their belief of something like this as equivalent to estimating the percentage of the time they are likely to be wrong. So to say the two are not related is not true.

I think this attributes overly precise motives to people who have none. It may be accurate for the HN crowd (although I doubt it), but in general, people assigning percentages to their beliefs are performing cargo-cult numeracy rather than actually calibrating beliefs. To illustrate: I am pretty sure that people saying they're 99% sure are saying "I am pretty sure" and not "I estimate I will be wrong once out of a hu…

99% is a common number for cargo-cult numeracy, much like "give me a minute" probably doesn't mean a literal minute.

On the other hand, 95%, 90%, "give me three minutes", etc. are much less cargo-cult, and much less likely to be cargo-cult numeracy.

On the third tentacle, people are bad at a lot of estimates, HN crowd included.

Re: The real reason to end the death penalty

#463
post #437
post #113

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Framing the death penalty debate around "innocent people get killed" will not change the partisan/class perceptions. I don't agree. All of these moral castigations about it being 'inhumane' or 'barbaric' don't strike me as rational or compelling in the least. I think the idea is humane in the context of those impacted by the crimes in question and I don't see how putting a person in a box for the remainder of their…

How about that it's significantly more expensive on average to execute a prisoner (due to the extensive appeal processes) than to imprison him for life? I would assume that should be a very compelling argument in favour of abolishing the death penalty for somebody who is "right of center".

I can understand why you would say that based on all of the stereotypes floating around, but honestly I've never seen this argument move the needle for anyone.

For some they just say 'I'll do it for a dollar' and disengage. Realistically the cost of incarceration isn't what's driving their argument for the death penalty, it's just a talking point.

For me, it's just the price of due process.

Maybe to save a few keystrokes, I think we are too flippant about the death penalty today but I think its an essential part of a justice system.

Re: The real reason to end the death penalty

#464

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The reason it isn't such a "major head fuckery" for me personally, is because I don't believe in free will and I think everything is predetermined. So, someone that has an "ill mindset" where they commit a crime worthy of being forever isolated from the general public, is in the sense very ill psychologically and comparable to someone suffering from a mental illness. The psychological pain that someone will suffer fr…

Among other things: You are assuming they are actually guilty. The very article under discussion shows that innocent people go to prison. There's a whole lot more I don't agree with here, but it seems unlikely to be a fruitful discussion.

I wrote for persons that are in a way innocent, as they had no choice but are guilty if they really did commit the crime worthy of the punishment. I'll confirm here for you that I think even an innocent person should be given a way out by euthanasia if they're living such a nightmare of being stuck in prison for a life sentence while truly innocent by not committing the accused crime(s). We definitely as a society should allow persons that were fated with such a cruel twist in life the ability to fight for retrials for examining how they truly are innocent even while the first verdict claims otherwise. I'm not assuming but just writing my thoughts for a better world than the one I observe in this life.

Re: The real reason to end the death penalty

#465
post #301

Is there a point where it becomes necessary to end the life of another person? Maybe. Maybe if the person is obviously committed to harming others and refuses all attempts at reform. How do you know when someone is past helping? Anyway, there just aren't very many people who match this description. As a Christian against the death penalty I find myself often in a very unexpected minority. Many Christians I know and g…

> Is there a point where it becomes necessary to end the life of another person? Maybe. Maybe if the person is obviously committed to harming others and refuses all attempts at reform. Even in that instance, I can't imagine it ever being necessary to end their life. We have more than sufficient technology and resources to sustain such a hopeless case in a state in which they, and everyone else, are safe from harm. Ta…

Not every government in the world has equal access to the necessary wealth and technology to pull this off, but for those that do I agree with you wholeheartedly.

Re: The real reason to end the death penalty

#466

To amplify Paul's point: The legal standard in all criminal trials is "Beyond a reasonable doubt": > The standard that must be met by the prosecution's evidence in a criminal prosecution: that no other logical explanation can be derived from the facts except that the defendant committed the crime, thereby overcoming the presumption that a person is innocent until proven guilty. And yet, DNA testing has exonerated man…

According to the Innocence Project[1], 21 people on death row have been exonerated by DNA evidence.

In the last 31 years a total of 375 people have been exonerated by DNA evidence (not just the people on death row).

[1] https://innocenceproject.org/dna-exonerations-in-the-united-...

Re: The real reason to end the death penalty

#467

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s not ideal. But if we don’t have a working criminal justice system, victims will take the law into their own hands and their error rate will most likely be much worse.

There is zero evidence that the death penalty is useful for deterrence. Zero points for using a distraction from the argument at hand which is whether the death penalty is justified.

> For example, MHA found that there was a 66 per cent reduction in the average net weight trafficked for opium in the four-year window after the mandatory death penalty was introduced in 1990 for trafficking more than 1,200g of opium.

> In the four years after the death penalty for trafficking more than 500g of cannabis was introduced in 1990, there was "a 15 to 19 percentage point reduction in the probability that traffickers would choose to traffic above the capital sentence threshold", said Mr Shanmugam.

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/singapore/death-penalty...

Granted, the deterrence value of capital punishment as applied in most nations, such as the U.S., has been shown to be negligible. Most countries, especially in the 21st century, just don't have the stomach to apply capital punishment strictly enough to make it worthwhile. And for good reasons, I might add. But if I were creating a country from scratch, before certain patterns of crime and social dynamics became endemic (that is, firmly rooted in the economic life of certain classes such that they would, as a group, be systematically grossly disproportionately punished), I would absolutely employ capital punishment.

I think in the U.S. we tend to assume that poverty and violence go hand-in-hand. And so to punish violence is to in some sense punish the poor. But if you look at poverty around the world, violence is not a necessary consequence of poverty. There are many places where even desperately poor communities experience much less violence than some of the richest towns in the U.S. Ultimately it's a function of the wider culture and its predisposition to violence. If you can use capital punishment to forestall societal changes (e.g. drugs trafficking, use of guns in crimes) that invite pervasive violence, you can achieve a more just outcome for everybody. But in practice you probably can't use capital punishment to put the genie back in the bottle; certainly not alone.

Re: The real reason to end the death penalty

#468
post #434

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What does “beyond a reasonable doubt” mean in probability terms? Most people say 90-95%, which suggests even Graham’s 4% number (which is on the high end of such estimates, see: https://dc.law.utah.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1130&con... ) is actually consistent with the system working as designed. Also, while you’re thinking about that, what’s your estimate of the probability that Derek Chauvin’s negligence was…

Actually, Chauvin's actions did not have to be the only cause of death. Reckless actions only had to contribute in order for him to be guilty. The fact that there were drugs involved or other medical conditions merely establish that he may have been easier to kill than a healthier individual. You only need to be very sure that what Chauvin did was reckless and unreasonable and also very sure that had Chauvin not knel…

Often cited as the 'Eggshell skull' doctrine.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eggshell_skull

Re: The real reason to end the death penalty

#469
post #298

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's a sensible belief, I have it too. It's not backed by the evidence, though. Harsher sentences do not decrease crime rates.

They don't seem to decrease crime rates in others, but how about crime rates for the people actually sentenced? Sentencing Alice to 20 years for some crime might not discourage Bob from doing the same crime, but it is at least going to stop Alice from doing that crime again for the next 20 years (assuming we are talking about a crime that Alice cannot do in prison).

A shorter sentence may be more effective if the subject is rehabilitated and able to integrate back into society. Coming back after 20 or 30 years would make it very hard to integrate into being a contributing member. We'd have to look at the whole picture.

And, of course, the death penalty makes it impossible for them to offend again if that is the main argument. Though perhaps they wouldn't have anyway.

Re: The real reason to end the death penalty

#470
Unrelated: it's kinda funny that, of all people, it's Paul Graham's website that my browser gives me a warning like this:

"You’ve enabled HTTPS-Only Mode for enhanced security, and a HTTPS version of paulgraham.com is not available."

Related:

> "But in practice the debate about the death penalty is not about whether it's ok to kill murderers. It's about whether it's ok to kill innocent people, because at least 4% of people on death row are innocent."

Where does this guy "practice"? Does he know anyone who goes to church? The debate is very, very much about whether it's okay to kill murderers.

Post reply on HN