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Proposed acquisition of ARM Limited by NVIDIA: public interest intervention

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Re: Proposed acquisition of ARM Limited by NVIDIA: public interest intervention

#151

Post by smachiz »

tw04 wrote: post #143
smachiz wrote: post #139

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You haven't demonstrated that anyone /is/ entering into contracts with Intel. Intel has done lots of things that it turns out people didn't want to do (with them).

They absolutely have people signing up, none of it has been publicly announced (that I've seen) but we already know they were doing custom designs for Facebook/Amazon/MS so they would be logical first-takers.

None of those are OXMs and are the end customer. That is totally different than what your original assertion was.

Re: Proposed acquisition of ARM Limited by NVIDIA: public interest intervention

#152

Post by karteum »

jorvi wrote: post #134
Vvector wrote: post #129

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The companies that directly compete with Nvidia (AMD & Intel) are not ARM customers. ARM's biggest customers are mobile phones, which could benefit from an Nvidia GPU

Considering how well Apple's M1 is performing, I suspect within 10 years the majority of new desktops and laptops sold will be ARM-based, with both Intel and AMD having to either adapt or languish.

Difficult to forecast within 10 years... maybe you are right, maybe it could be Alibaba/Allwinner/Rockchip with RISC-V designs ! :D

Re: Proposed acquisition of ARM Limited by NVIDIA: public interest intervention

#153

Post by lend000 »

tokyojoe wrote: post #52

The semiconductor supply chain is now almost completely disaggregated ie everyone specialises in just a small part of the value chain. ARM’s speciality is in CPU design and it has carved out for itself the enviable position of being the defacto standard for mobile applications - almost every single phone on the planet has ARM processor(s) running it. And their products are in dozens of other end applications segments…

I may be ignorant, but aren't ARM designed CPU's (like the A78) miles behind their most advanced licensees, like Apple with the M1/A12? Isn't most of their value just riding on licenses of their established instruction set?

Re: Proposed acquisition of ARM Limited by NVIDIA: public interest intervention

#154

Post by nabla9 »

ARM deal has a condition:

> The proposed transaction is subject to customary closing conditions, including the receipt of regulatory approvals for the U.K., China, the European Union and the United States. Completion of the transaction is expected to take place in approximately 18 months.

Any one of these 4 regulators can still stop the sale.

Re: Proposed acquisition of ARM Limited by NVIDIA: public interest intervention

#155

Post by astrange »

lend000 wrote: post #153
tokyojoe wrote: post #52

The semiconductor supply chain is now almost completely disaggregated ie everyone specialises in just a small part of the value chain. ARM’s speciality is in CPU design and it has carved out for itself the enviable position of being the defacto standard for mobile applications - almost every single phone on the planet has ARM processor(s) running it. And their products are in dozens of other end applications segments…

I may be ignorant, but aren't ARM designed CPU's (like the A78) miles behind their most advanced licensees, like Apple with the M1/A12? Isn't most of their value just riding on licenses of their established instruction set?

They sell a lot of much cheaper and smaller cores, even if the desktop designs aren't as good. They're also working on future designs, not just riding the established ones.

Re: Proposed acquisition of ARM Limited by NVIDIA: public interest intervention

#156

Post by julienb_sea »

tokyojoe wrote: post #52

The semiconductor supply chain is now almost completely disaggregated ie everyone specialises in just a small part of the value chain. ARM’s speciality is in CPU design and it has carved out for itself the enviable position of being the defacto standard for mobile applications - almost every single phone on the planet has ARM processor(s) running it. And their products are in dozens of other end applications segments…

> these companies will simply hollow ARM out (slash R&D, cut staff etc) to pump up the target’s value, before flogging it off or breaking it up

This seems dramatically more likely from a generic investment consortium like SoftBank versus an actual chip-focused R&D organization like nvidia. I don't see how this is possibly a counterargument for sale to nvidia.

Re: Proposed acquisition of ARM Limited by NVIDIA: public interest intervention

#158

Post by nottorp »

nabla9 wrote: post #154

ARM deal has a condition: > The proposed transaction is subject to customary closing conditions, including the receipt of regulatory approvals for the U.K., China, the European Union and the United States. Completion of the transaction is expected to take place in approximately 18 months. Any one of these 4 regulators can still stop the sale.

Oh pretty. I don't see China - which is already under some embargos by the US - allowing ARM to become an US company.

Re: Proposed acquisition of ARM Limited by NVIDIA: public interest intervention

#159

Post by volta83 »

tokyojoe wrote: post #52

The semiconductor supply chain is now almost completely disaggregated ie everyone specialises in just a small part of the value chain. ARM’s speciality is in CPU design and it has carved out for itself the enviable position of being the defacto standard for mobile applications - almost every single phone on the planet has ARM processor(s) running it. And their products are in dozens of other end applications segments…

You claim that it is in the interest of an ARM CPU vendor that wants to buy ARM to cut ARM's R&D and sell it for parts after buying it.

What's the rationale of this claim? (you don't say)

I'd expected that ARM CPU vendors are interested in having "great" CPUs to sell and having as big of an ecosystem as possible.

So my expectation would be that NVIDIA would significantly increas - not cut - ARM's R&D budget, and will significantly invest in the ARM platform.

On top of this, NVIDIA apparently is trying to cut its reliance on Intel and AMD CPUs. I don't see how cutting ARM's R&D budget and stripping it for parts would allow them to reach that goal.

This is the opposite of what you claim.

Re: Proposed acquisition of ARM Limited by NVIDIA: public interest intervention

#160

Post by tokyojoe »

tw04 wrote: post #123
tokyojoe wrote: post #52

The semiconductor supply chain is now almost completely disaggregated ie everyone specialises in just a small part of the value chain. ARM’s speciality is in CPU design and it has carved out for itself the enviable position of being the defacto standard for mobile applications - almost every single phone on the planet has ARM processor(s) running it. And their products are in dozens of other end applications segments…

> these companies will simply hollow ARM out (slash R&D, cut staff etc) to pump up the target’s value, before flogging it off or breaking it up. That's a very real concern with Softbank (and why I questioned why regulators were allowing the acquisition in the first place). I don't think you can be any further from the mark implying that's Nvidia's plan. Nvidia wants ARM to flourish, they would have no interest in kil…

This reminds of the analyst who predicted AMD’s acquisition of ATI would kill off Intel. Nothing of the sort happened.

If a chip supplier like Nvidia buys ARM and uses its products, it will ultimately have an outsize say over ARM’s product (actually IP) roadmaps. That’s not going to make ARM’s current customers happy. Nvidia want to diversify- that’s why they’ve targeted ARM. They don’t need the technology- it’s readily available to licence.

Arm is valued at $40 billion on c. $ 2 billion in annual sales while Nvidia is valued at > $300 billion on $ 16 billion in sales. With a valuation of 300 billion, why buy ARM and almost certainly damage the ARM business model which is as an independent processor IP provider?

And how will Huawei (and China), big ARM licensees, react to ARM being owned by a US company given the bad blood in that area.

For ARM, it’s a strategic disaster IMV. Better to stay independent!

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