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$7.6B in crypto long positions liquidated in 1 hour as Bitcoin plunges to $52k

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Re: $7.6B in crypto long positions liquidated in 1 hour as Bitcoin plunges to $52k

#101

Post by throwaway_kufu »

polote wrote: post #11
patentatt wrote: post #4

What I hate about Bitcoin is that I have absolutely no idea if this is 1) a good dip to buy, or 2) the start of a much bigger crash. Everything I understand about the topic and the world at large tells me it should be #2, but in retrospect it always winds up being #1. Am I passing up free money today? Or am I smart not to gamble in such an obviously rigged game? Will I look back years from now longingly and wish that…

How is that different from the stock market ? Maybe you have 'more ideas' but that would not prevent you to be wrong. In both case nobody can predict what will happen next

As others have said stock is ownership in a company, whereas cryptocurrency doesn’t represent ownership in anything other than the scheme itself. It takes a hell of a lot for a publicly traded stock to go to $0.

The market is manipulated certainly, but that is not a justification for tech companies and developers to create crypto currencies to pump and dump.

Also the markets are regulated from registering trades by CEOs in advance to insider trading laws. Though far from perfect it’s no reason to waive a white flag and open the flood gates to unmitigated scams. And the only times it appears coin scams have resulted in any legal action and liability is under the guise of the existing securities laws.

Re: $7.6B in crypto long positions liquidated in 1 hour as Bitcoin plunges to $52k

#102

Post by mam3 »

beforeolives wrote: post #6

It could be up to 100k in a week, could be down to 20k or anything in between. I honestly have no idea which one is more likely and wouldn't be surprised by any price, high or low. I'm also very skeptical of anyone who claims to know what's happening in the cryptocurrency market and why.

Basically doge is going to the moon (to 1dollar at least) thanks to elon, and rune is the best defi protocol.

Other than that...

Re: $7.6B in crypto long positions liquidated in 1 hour as Bitcoin plunges to $52k

#103

Post by creepto »

haolez wrote: post #35

I'm waiting for a Tether collapse to create my long position, but I'm starting to feel like Michael Burry in the Big Short: the market can remain irrational for a long time.

Have puts on all of the miners and Microstrategy.

Months out, enough time for Bitfinex to get curbstomped by the DOJ, CFTC, or NYAG.

Also enough time for them to expire worthless.

Re: $7.6B in crypto long positions liquidated in 1 hour as Bitcoin plunges to $52k

#104

Post by bitcoinmonger »

Seemed inevitable.

I first found out about Bitcoin in 2017, but didn't have time to fully understand the technology, so I brushed it off as a curiosity and moved on. I heard about it again in November at the start of the price increase, but upon further analysis decided not to invest due to the fossil fuels required to secure the network (I extend my thanks to Stephen Diehl for his thorough and nuanced introspection of the technology).

I feel sorry for those who have lost money at this time, but I am thankful to have had the foresight to avoid this inevitable price crash.

Re: $7.6B in crypto long positions liquidated in 1 hour as Bitcoin plunges to $52k

#105

Post by IkmoIkmo »

kungito wrote: post #74
fny wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The difference is that stocks can be "valued" whereas crypto and other assets that lack a revenue stream can only be priced.

Yeah it "can" be valued but we can also see that it doesn't really seem like valuations are connected to actual company value

They generally are. The prices are related to the earnings. The current P/E ratio of the S&P500 is about 2x the historical average of the past 200 years. High, yes, (which is driven by low interest rates), but definitely linked to an underlying value.

In other words, the price of a company is the present value of its future earnings. There is some speculation on what future earnings will be, but generally the valuation is about 20x last year's earnings, right now it's about double that.

If a company earns profits it can pay it out as dividend, or it can accumulate it as cash and gain equity.

Bitcoin doesn't have such a thing. There's no profit that bitcoin makes that gets paid out to its owners in dividend. And the price increases aren't related to its profits, either, it's really pure speculation, no different from tulip mania.

Bitcoins potential technical uses are real, but have no real world use case so far after 13 years. There's no killer app. And if there was, it still does not require bitcoin to have a trillion dollar market cap to function. The blockchain can function just fine at a fraction of it. You can write data to the blockchain with a millionth fraction of one coin, a tiny fraction of a cent.

As a store of value sure it has proved itself across what is a very short span of time in human history, but only because its speculative. It's not an argument that its a good store of value. In the end, its only based on a mutual fashionable agreement. Technically you can fork bitcoin and create infinite tokens. The scarcity is akin to every human on earth being an alchemist and and being able to make infinite variations of a gold metal, slightly different, and us artificially choosing on one (the first one) being valuable, and the rest not. For now... and then claiming it to be a good store of value. Time will tell. In any case, there's nothing but FOMO/speculation driving bitcoin valuations atm.

Re: $7.6B in crypto long positions liquidated in 1 hour as Bitcoin plunges to $52k

#106

Post by bingbong70 »

lrem wrote: post #82
polote wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How is that different from the stock market ? Maybe you have 'more ideas' but that would not prevent you to be wrong. In both case nobody can predict what will happen next

S&P500 did about +100% over 5 years. Bitcoin did about +11500% over same 5 years (would have been over +13000% before this crash).

A 10% retracement to a price level Bitcoin was at 1-2 weeks ago is not a crash.

Retail traders' emotional reaction to volatility really skews their perception. Professional traders are aware of this and take advantage.

Re: $7.6B in crypto long positions liquidated in 1 hour as Bitcoin plunges to $52k

#107

Post by lifty »

creepto wrote: post #103
haolez wrote: post #35

I'm waiting for a Tether collapse to create my long position, but I'm starting to feel like Michael Burry in the Big Short: the market can remain irrational for a long time.

Have puts on all of the miners and Microstrategy. Months out, enough time for Bitfinex to get curbstomped by the DOJ, CFTC, or NYAG. Also enough time for them to expire worthless.

Which expiration date and what price? When I checked last time they seemed pretty expensive.

Re: $7.6B in crypto long positions liquidated in 1 hour as Bitcoin plunges to $52k

#108

Post by emerged »

beforeolives wrote: post #6

It could be up to 100k in a week, could be down to 20k or anything in between. I honestly have no idea which one is more likely and wouldn't be surprised by any price, high or low. I'm also very skeptical of anyone who claims to know what's happening in the cryptocurrency market and why.

Yet some random idiot who put $2k into coinx 2 years ago will feel brilliant the rest of their life for their incredible, deep conceptual $3M achievement. That idiot now has tremendous economic power to further spread the entropy for many years to come. The effects of crypto are going to ripple through time.

Re: $7.6B in crypto long positions liquidated in 1 hour as Bitcoin plunges to $52k

#109

Post by atat7024 »

candiddevmike wrote: post #64
HashBasher wrote: post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Easy to copy the coin, hard to copy the network effect.

I see the network as a key problem here--the miners will go wherever the grass is greenest, the network isn't permanent. If a coin were to pay them more or suddenly crash, they'd shift their rigs pretty quickly. Same problem Uber and Lyft have.

Which coins have gone from popular to no longer mined?

Re: $7.6B in crypto long positions liquidated in 1 hour as Bitcoin plunges to $52k

#110

Post by iso1631 »

ttul wrote: post #42
iso1631 wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Said the people laughing at those who bought in at $20k in 2017/18

Said the people laughing at those who bought at the $30 peak in 2012...

Quite.

If you put $1 a day in since the Big Bang Theory Bitcoin episode aired on 7 December 2017, which is a fair date for when it reached the popular conciousness (13.84 million watched that episode in the US), and bought at the open every day, you'd have converted $1220 into $8600.

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