Is Russia going to war with Ukraine and other questions • Hacker News Board

Re: Is Russia going to war with Ukraine and other questions

#111

Post by anelson » Sun, Apr 18, 2021, 3:51 PM UTC

_xnmw wrote: post #9

Canadian here on the ground in Ukraine, on the Eastern side (Kharkiv). The situation is pretty serious as everyone’s talking about war, and I personally am stocking up on non-perishable food items. The prevailing opinion seems to be that Russia is just flexing muscles, but I personally believe a full scale invasion is in the works. The idea that Putin is trying to extract concessions doesn’t make sense to me, because…

Hey, American here, I live in Kyiv.

Things are as tense here as I've ever experienced since I moved here in 2018. Most Ukrainians I know don't think a full-scale invasion is likely, but I think that's just because contemplating the prospect of an escalation of the war with Russia is too unpleasant. I know that the Ukrainian armed forces are taking it seriously, although as far as I know they haven't yet mobilized any reserves.

That said, a lot has changed since 2014. Back then, Ukraine's military was hollowed out by years of neglect and corruption. Ukraine's armed forces have undergone a significant transformation since then, and while I don't think they could hold off the combined forces of Russia's armor, air, and naval assets, they don't have to: they just have to make Russia pay dearly enough for every meter they take that it's not worth it.

To that end, we (the US but also Canada and Great Britain) have done a lot in terms of training and support, and IIRC there are units of Ukrainian Special Forces which have certified as NATO SOF. If I were a Russian tank commander advancing into Ukrainian territory, I'd be very worried about the Javelin anti-tank missile systems Ukraine bought from the US. Ukraine is also operating a pretty advanced Turkish armed UAV platform which could ruin the day of would-be invaders.

I'm not yet at the point where I'm considering leaving Ukraine, but it is a pretty stressful time. However you have to understand that Ukraine has been at war with Russia since 2014; Ukrainian soldiers have continued to fight and die on the contact line in Eastern Ukraine ever since. So to some extent the population here are used to the looming threat of violence from Russia since it never went away. Nonetheless, this feels like an escalation and that worries me.

Re: Is Russia going to war with Ukraine and other questions

#112

Post by anelson » Sun, Apr 18, 2021, 4:01 PM UTC

sergeykish wrote: post #110

ridethebike wrote: post #109

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Hey, given that you're "on the ground", in your opinion, what is the mood there and what do you think is more likely: - no invasion (flex muscles, drills, go home) - limited invasion - full-scale invasion

Lets check, in 2014 there were two cases: * Crimea invasion — unexpected "brother nation" invasion, brainwashing about Ukrainian fascists, largely pro-Russian population. * Donbass — brainwashing, traitors in government and police, RF mercenaries and brainwashed Russians [1]. Since then largely people understood that "Russian peace" is war, poverty and crime. Pro-Russian parties popularity plummeted, last incarnation…

> Yet we have to be ready for "Russian speaking Ukrainians" from nearby Russian cities

Yes this is an important point. Russia's official position to this day is that they have not invaded Donbass, and that the conflict there is a civil war. That's transparently false propaganda, and extensive evidence exists of specific identifiable Russian military units operating in Ukraine, but it's nonetheless the Russian narrative. If they escalate further it would not surprise me if it were "Russian speaking Ukrainians" again; Russian operatives furthering Russian interests using Russian equipment and Russian resources, but officially deniable by Russia.

Another favored narrative is that they are protecting Russian-speaking peoples from oppression, and that these oppressed peoples want to be under Russian rule. That worked to some extent in 2014, and I knew many educated and prosperous Ukrainians who believed that propaganda. It will be a harder sell today, as it's very obvious that seven years of "freedom" in Donbass has destroyed the region and made life worse for the Ukrainians who still live there. But, again, I don't think Putin cares if the rest of the world believe that propaganda; the target audience is the Russian people.

Re: Is Russia going to war with Ukraine and other questions

#113

Post by anelson » Sun, Apr 18, 2021, 4:21 PM UTC

fighterpilot wrote: post #28

ivanivanovich wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Did the people of Crimea want to be in Russia or the Ukraine?

What's the answer to this question?

There were definitely some Crimeans who preferred to be part of Russia. But I don't think the referendum was free or fair. And even if we could say that 51% of them genuinely wanted to secede from Ukraine and join Russia, it doesn't change the fact that Russia annexed Crimea first, and then, lo and behold, the Crimean people wanted Russian rule all along. I don't think there's any way to square what happened with international law.

There's another devious tactic Russia uses which is IMHO even worse than the bogus referendum: They've started issuing Russian passports to Ukrainian citizens in the part of Eastern Ukraine that is controlled by the "independent republics" which are de facto controlled by Russia. So now, Russia can say, truthfully, that there are many Russian citizens in Donbass, and justify military escalation there as a purely defensive act responding to Ukrainian abuses of Russian citizens. Meanwhile, life in Donbass gets worse and worse, Russian passport or not.