For context: Turkey has been facing an several year long financial crisis with the Turkish Lira plummeting in value. Erdoğan has done nothing good to solve the crisis and is just firing the central bank administrator one after the other. The central bank has brought so much lira with its foreign currency reserve to try to maintain the price that it is almost running dry of any foreign currency, making the future look…
"The central bank has brought so much lira with its foreign currency reserve to try to maintain the price that it is almost running dry of any foreign currency, making the future look even bleaker." All it needs to do is stop doing that and make it clear to the market that it will no longer do that. That removes the patsy from the market and the currency will find its level. What you have to do is make lira scarce. A…
I think that after the sack of the previous governor by Erdogan, it is clear to investors who is really running the Central Bank and what he think. For many investors the only way to make it clear that it will no longer do that is a change not in the CB, but in the Presidency.
> What you have to do is make lira scarce. And you do that by putting taxes up, stop paying interest on lira savings [...]
I disagree with this part. To make lira scarce you have to make it so people are willing to buy lira. If you stop paying interest on lira savings people will sell their liras and buy dollars (this is exactly what happened in the past years).
On the other side if the interest rates are higher people and foreign investors will be more eager to change their dollars for lira, helping the exchange rate. Also higher rates means less people will take credit, reducing the amount of lira circulating. This was exactly was happening with the previous governor.
More importantly, people will buy lira only if they trust the Turkish state and consequently the lira. Just imagine, simply by firing the previous governor (which was considered a competent person), Erdogan caused the Turkish Lira to lose about 10-15% of its value in a single night. I think that the situation will not improve much unless there are serious economic and institutional reforms, but I don't see them coming while Erdogan is still ruling the country.