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Yamauchi No.10 Family Office

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Re: Yamauchi No.10 Family Office

#261

Post by astrange »

AILove wrote: post #258

On their current trajectory, they will be an extinct race in about 50 years. Instead of being insular they should look outwards. Open up migration and stop being racial and maybe that will introduce some fresh ideas. You loose some but win in the long term.

They already did that. Japan is easier to immigrate to than the US, but it's not necessarily attractive because wages are lower than Western countries.

The reason you don't hear about it is everyone is years behind on Japan stereotypes, and they shut everyone out again for pandemic management. But the "98% of Japan is Japanese" quote is not true (it actually means 98% Japanese citizens).

Re: Yamauchi No.10 Family Office

#263

Post by astrange »

freetime2 wrote: post #231
asiachick wrote: post #215

Like most people here it's all just opinion. I'm happy someone is pushing for more innovation in Japan but ... there's huge issues (1) Japanese people generally only speak Japanese. That tends to limit their reach to Japan only. Sure there are exceptions, I'm just saying it adds a hurdle. It also adds a hurdle to importing people. (2) Japanese culture doesn't encourage sticking out. There's a reason one of the most f…

The comparatively low salaries are not just Software Engineering positions, either. Doctors in Japan apparently earn about $120K to $150K on average [1]. CEOs of large companies only make 10% of their counterparts at US companies [2]. I actually think it's a good thing for Japan that inequality hasn't reached the crazy levels that we see in some other countries. But it certainly does make it hard for Japanese compani…

Part of this is just tax avoidance; you don't have to pay the CEO as much if they just happen to live for free in a house the company owns.

Re: Yamauchi No.10 Family Office

#264

Post by Naracion »

astrange wrote: post #259
tablespoon wrote: post #247

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>> Sounds like the issue is that the "blue collar industries" employers need to offer higher salaries? > I'm sure their customers will completely understand, pay the higher costs without complaint, and not at all go and find alternative suppliers. The real issue may be that the investors won't understand, and won't take reduced profits without complaint.

Isn't car maintenance the kind of business that's more likely to be an SMB or family-run rather than have investors? There's brands like Firestone and Jiffy Lube although I thought everyone knew that was a scam by now.

Why would those establishments be scam?

Re: Yamauchi No.10 Family Office

#265

Post by m0llusk »

chrisco255 wrote: post #30

Besides being a beautiful website, I was rather touched by their call to action: "Seeking stability only clouds your soul. Fear of failing only kills the seeds of innovation. We must create a more exciting future where people feel free to dream and leap into a world of possibilities. We must create a freer future where people are eager to truly live." It's hard not to love Nintendo. Also TLDR for those that didn't sc…

> It's hard not to love Nintendo.

The most brief review of the actions of their legal team will or at least should turn you completely cold to them. Nintendo is a classic example of a corporation behaving as a psychopath.

Re: Yamauchi No.10 Family Office

#266

Post by arcturus17 »

m0llusk wrote: post #265
chrisco255 wrote: post #30

Besides being a beautiful website, I was rather touched by their call to action: "Seeking stability only clouds your soul. Fear of failing only kills the seeds of innovation. We must create a more exciting future where people feel free to dream and leap into a world of possibilities. We must create a freer future where people are eager to truly live." It's hard not to love Nintendo. Also TLDR for those that didn't sc…

> It's hard not to love Nintendo. The most brief review of the actions of their legal team will or at least should turn you completely cold to them. Nintendo is a classic example of a corporation behaving as a psychopath.

> The most brief review of the actions of their legal team will or at least should turn you completely cold to them.

No, actually it won't have this effect on many reasonable and intelligent people. Because for the most part Nintendo are only trying to protect their intellectual property, and it's easy to see why they would want to do that.

Few people really care that they're aggressively crushing the latest fan-made Pokémon game.

Re: Yamauchi No.10 Family Office

#267

Post by mlyle »

nwienert wrote: post #256
mlyle wrote: post #255

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> 3rd highest GDP in the world Yes, and slowly sliding down the list. The demographic one is the real killer. Debt is high compared to their GDP, and their GDP is not growing, and there is a big structural headwind with the population shrinking and getting older. > Germany looks almost no different, yet I rarely hear about German stagnation Germany has smaller versions of the same demographic and growth problems. How…

Must be pretty slow as they haven’t changed positions yet. My stats show Japan looking the same as Germany last 10 years, and near many other European countries.

Japan's real PPP GDP 4.634T in 2009, 5.261T in 2019 = 13.5% growth in 10 years.

Germany 3.696T in 2009, 4.471T in 2019 = 20.9%.

Japan grew at 2/3rds the rate of Germany in the last 10 years, against the backdrop of a significantly worse 10 years before that.

The shape of the graph looks similar, but the difference between 1.019^n and 1.012^n over a long time is massive. Not to mention that Germany is not particularly healthy.

It's rather spectacular if you look at the per capita PPP GDP series, actually-- https://i.imgur.com/eD8cECd.png

Yes, it'll be about 23 years at the present pace for Germany to surpass Japan in absolute terms, but Japan has a much larger population and Germany has better prospects for long term growth.

Germany's debt is ~60% of GDP, and Japan's is 240%, too, which is pretty terrifying when GDP is not growing much and may begin to contract in absolute terms from demographic changes.

Re: Yamauchi No.10 Family Office

#268

Post by astrange »

Naracion wrote: post #264
astrange wrote: post #259

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Isn't car maintenance the kind of business that's more likely to be an SMB or family-run rather than have investors? There's brands like Firestone and Jiffy Lube although I thought everyone knew that was a scam by now.

Why would those establishments be scam?

https://www.cheatsheet.com/money-career/how-jiffy-lube-got-a...

Re: Yamauchi No.10 Family Office

#269

Post by nwienert »

mlyle wrote: post #267
nwienert wrote: post #256

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Must be pretty slow as they haven’t changed positions yet. My stats show Japan looking the same as Germany last 10 years, and near many other European countries.

Japan's real PPP GDP 4.634T in 2009, 5.261T in 2019 = 13.5% growth in 10 years. Germany 3.696T in 2009, 4.471T in 2019 = 20.9%. Japan grew at 2/3rds the rate of Germany in the last 10 years, against the backdrop of a significantly worse 10 years before that. The shape of the graph looks similar, but the difference between 1.019^n and 1.012^n over a long time is massive. Not to mention that Germany is not particularly…

All well and good, still, the perception and reality I don't think match. I've had this conversation many times where people just instinctually cite 'oh Japan is in decline, doing really poorly, etc', and then I tell them they are 3rd highest GDP in the world, had a huge growth wave in the mid-2010s and I get pikachu-face shocked reactions. Even here, I think you're falling for the meme.

Here's a better graph: https://imgur.com/a/2QI5E41

It's funny, your graph cuts off right before it, and is a perfect example of extrapolating too soon. It's that one big recession dip, and since then are doing better, and before that doing better. More spurts, higher angles recently.

Re: Yamauchi No.10 Family Office

#270

Post by mlyle »

nwienert wrote: post #269
mlyle wrote: post #267

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Japan's real PPP GDP 4.634T in 2009, 5.261T in 2019 = 13.5% growth in 10 years. Germany 3.696T in 2009, 4.471T in 2019 = 20.9%. Japan grew at 2/3rds the rate of Germany in the last 10 years, against the backdrop of a significantly worse 10 years before that. The shape of the graph looks similar, but the difference between 1.019^n and 1.012^n over a long time is massive. Not to mention that Germany is not particularly…

All well and good, still, the perception and reality I don't think match. I've had this conversation many times where people just instinctually cite 'oh Japan is in decline, doing really poorly, etc', and then I tell them they are 3rd highest GDP in the world, had a huge growth wave in the mid-2010s and I get pikachu-face shocked reactions. Even here, I think you're falling for the meme. Here's a better graph: https:…

My graph cuts off at the same time (2019).

I think there is some misunderstanding here about reading a graph for growth rate. Anything that starts off higher is likely to have "higher angles" even if it shows a lower growth rate. Which looking at the numbers, we see-- we already did the arithmetic a couple posts ago. Part of why the per capita series looks so bad: it starts at about the same value so the effect of a higher baseline is not so misleading.

The debt to GDP problem, combined with anemic GDP growth and population structural factors that make high growth unlikely for a century, combine to be a big concern that you haven't addressed. Instead you handwave at graphs in a way that doesn't boost anyone's understanding.

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