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There’s Nothing to Do Except Gamble

nymag.com

321–330 of 409 posts

Re: There’s Nothing to Do Except Gamble

#321
post #3

>for many of us, money is only experienced through our phones, as a number on a screen. You pay your rent with one app, you buy put options with another. The number goes up, it goes down, it lives in the little portal we hold in our hands. And decades ago it was a number written down on a little piece of paper, and before that it was little pieces of “precious” metal locked away somewhere. At least nowadays amateurs…

It's the other way around. First there was personal debt, then impersonal money. In the beginning you would just lend stuff from other people and give it back, or with consumables give something back of similar worth. Precious metal was pretty rarely used, as its main benefit is that you need almost no common trust relationship.

Describing it as debt makes it sound like people tallied it, which I believe they didn’t for a long time. It gets the facts right but uses a very modern way to frame it. I think it’s more accurate to look at it as reciprocal altruism. I do you favors, you do OP favors, OP does me favors and we do so so long as it feels like nobody is mooching.

It’s the difference between 1) going out to a bar with friends and remembering “Alice has bought the group X rounds, Bob has bought Y rounds, and I’ve bought Z, meaning it’s Bob’s turn to buy a round because he is in beer debt” and 2) “Alice and Bob and I generally buy each other rounds and it all feels roughly balanced so I’ll buy this round.” Tracked and tallied debt came much later as I understand it.

Re: There’s Nothing to Do Except Gamble

#322

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Their formula was being wealthy enough to float above war, upheaval, regime change and so on. If they were wealthy enough, they probably triggered some of that and capitalized on war profiteering.

I don't like this comment, but I can't put my finger on why exactly. I think it's the drive-by, reflexive assignment of guilt, while knowing nothing of the circumstances. This strikes me as the opposite of thinking. What you said might be true, it might not, what have you added to the world?

You don’t like the comment because the comment is an uncomfortable truth (likely) is possible they weren’t but you know it is likely and the part of you that does not like to stereotype people is reacting

Re: There’s Nothing to Do Except Gamble

#323

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I really don't understand this sentiment, as if a professional gambler would not gladly gamble with novices... The existence of a financial elite hinges on the existence of a non-elite that actually does the work. If workers are putting 25% of their paychecks in an index fund and retire a few years earlier, instead of paying off their too-expensive car loan or something, it will be bad for the current financial eli…

I do actually wonder if the FIRE movement will come under criticism in the coming years. Does the economy still work if too many people are checking out of their careers in their 30s and 40s? But yeah, it's mostly the financial elite freaking out that their kids might actually have to be a wage slave for a living.

FIRE folk (and every retiree) are going to get killed by inflation over the next ~5 years. The thing about retirement is that you're on a fixed income, and if you're doing it right you move capital from risk assets like stocks into more deterministic investments like bonds as you get close to needing them. The value of bonds and cash is about to get crushed; it's very hard to plan how much you need to live on when living costs may go up 5-10x or more in the next 5 years.

Re: There’s Nothing to Do Except Gamble

#324
post #192

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No doubt a lot of "assembly line" welding operations have already become highly automated. This is, however, already the area requiring lesser skilled and more easily replaced workpeople. I was thinking more about on-site and craft-associated welding which I imagine will continue to be highly valued until extremely portable and versatile high-DOF robotic manipulators become commonplace.

Its also getting payed for grinding through your body (like a lot of trades but welding especially.)

A fair point, though a lot of office jobs aren't too kind on your body either.

Re: There’s Nothing to Do Except Gamble

#325
post #285

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Comparing cryptocurrency to real estate is laughable. With real estate you have either a place to live, reducing a real world expense (rent), or an income producing property. No matter how much you dress up cryptocurrencies as stocks, by using terms like market cap, you are not buying a share of an income producing asset. You're speculating on a digital collectible. You can speculate on real estate and stocks, but yo…

They compared it to the appreciation of real estate, which is wildly divorced from real value. Real-estate prices in say, the Bay Area are driven by legislation and speculation. Not actual value. The move to remote works accelerates the discrepancy.

Real estate prices in the Bay Area are also driven by the boatloads of money coming into the area and then not going back out. Our local money supply has gone way up. After all, when local worker salaries go so far up, why wouldn’t the price of goods they’re bidding for go up too?

Re: There’s Nothing to Do Except Gamble

#326

Value is already decoupled from money in the entire economy. When inflation is 3% YOY, but wages don't increase. If money was an indicator of value wages would track with inflation. There's no objective measure of value anymore and most jobs are more or less bullshit jobs. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bullshit_Jobs

Median household income is up to $69k now. In 1980, it was $17k. Wages are up 3.7x since 1980. REAL median household income is up 32% [1]. And this is with labor force participation absolutely plummeting [2]. Less people are working, and yet households are bringing in 32% more. [1] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MEHOINUSA672N [2] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CIVPART

Odd that you would carefully choose median household income instead of just simply wage growth.

Median household income increased because there are more dual income families.

If you're honest and look at pure wage growth it's stagnated for decades.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2...

Re: There’s Nothing to Do Except Gamble

#327

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In densely populated areas, the value of real estate has very little to do with what's built on the property, and everything to do with the land it is build on. GPs point is that owning land is not creating value. It is, however, very profitable.

You either have a sufficiently large land value tax or let the government rent out land instead of selling it. In both cases the land would become a liability that you constantly have to take care of instead of being an "investment". Productive work like building on top of land should be rewarded, waiting for a train station to be built in your neighborhood is not productive work that should be rewarded. Pretty much…

> However, most of them don't think...

That’s not the impression I get. They seem to have all kinds of broad beliefs.

Re: There’s Nothing to Do Except Gamble

#328
post #121

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I have for years heard about pressuring merchants to accept bitcoin or what ever currency and in the end the number of daily or even monthly users was most often laughably low. Not that there isn't some that move stuff, but that isn't really too many...

Crypto basically changed tracks in the last few years. Initially it was supposed to be money, and so there was a lot of effort to drive adoption. You could buy games on Steam for BTC. But then a thing happened: the value exploded, and new people started hearing about this amazing new asset growing in value. Crypto became not a coin, but a thing to hoard and sit on, waiting for the price to get higher still. In this s…

And then 100 years from now it will be worth $5 because no one will care

Re: There’s Nothing to Do Except Gamble

#329
post #210

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People who build housing create value. People who manage properties create value. People who speculate on properties do not create value.

Why are people selling real estate assets to speculators for less than they are worth?

Who says they are? Speculators are betting on what costs will be, but the people selling to them are (tautologically) doing it based on what it costs now. Some speculators win, some speculators lose, but I would say they’re necessarily performing arbitrage.

Re: There’s Nothing to Do Except Gamble

#330
post #224

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> My bet is that we'd all be happier for it. Yeah, except for those who'd suddenly be without electronic medical assistance. There are definite downsides to the digital era, but to act as if there's been no benefit is laughable at best and dangerously ignorant of the past at worst.

Everyone whose food supply depends on electronic supply chain management (ie everyone who is not actively farming their own food _right now_) is also going to be in for a pretty rough time though. Or everyone who needs gasoline for transport because they live a non-walkable distance from the nearest food and water.

Here hoping for a “non essential services” solar flare!
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