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There’s Nothing to Do Except Gamble

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Re: There’s Nothing to Do Except Gamble

#171

Post by throwaway98797 »

rubicon33 wrote: post #99
throwaway0a5e wrote: post #89

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is no skill that doesn't require upkeep over 20yr. Everything that was valuable in 2001 is still of about the same value now. But the mechanics who didn't want to diagnose electronics and the accountants who refused to learn computers and the programmers who only wanna write php have seen their skills reduced in value because they did not maintain currency. Being responsible for the work output of other people…

This is so hard to do in an industry that also heavily rewards specialists. I've been regularly asked by my employer to change role to help some other part of the business. Whether it was switching from mobile to server, server to front end web, or switching frameworks / tools within those domains, I always made the switch. The problem is that now I'm a jack of all trades, and a master of none.

Redine yourself as a problem solver vs. just a tool box.

“I’m a master generlized problem solving machine, how can I be of service?”

Re: There’s Nothing to Do Except Gamble

#172

Post by Animats »

jfengel wrote: post #64
wayoutthere wrote: post #23

The “woe is me, how do I know how to invest?” drivel in this article is solved by a sufficiently diversified portfolio. The article even admits that these shenanigans have no impact on the larger market — so invest there. If you want to take on more risk, great — but with great risk comes lots of market manipulation. The wider public is now learning what every MBA is taught in investment theory classes: investing is…

I have begun to worry that broad indexes are themselves becoming a problem. As that advice seeps out, a lot of people are buying "the market". Which has long been good sensible advice, because the market as a whole genuinely produces wealth, but it's not inexhaustible. The S&P 500 P/E ratio is up over 40, a number it has seen only twice before and both immediately before crashes. P/E is an imperfect measure, especial…

The S&P 500 P/E ratio is up over 40, a number it has seen only twice before and both immediately before crashes.

Yes. The historical market P/E is around 15.

Overall market P/E [1], and median house price / median income[2] are classic ratios to watch as indicators of how close things are to a crash. Look at those graphs. When they shoot way up, a crash follows shortly thereafter.

[1] https://www.macrotrends.net/2577/sp-500-pe-ratio-price-to-ea...

[2] https://www.longtermtrends.net/home-price-median-annual-inco...

Re: There’s Nothing to Do Except Gamble

#173

Post by legulere »

sixstringtheory wrote: post #151
bondarchuk wrote: post #115

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I really don't understand this sentiment, as if a professional gambler would not gladly gamble with novices... The existence of a financial elite hinges on the existence of a non-elite that actually does the work. If workers are putting 25% of their paychecks in an index fund and retire a few years earlier, instead of paying off their too-expensive car loan or something, it will be bad for the current financial eli…

> In the end money is just an abstraction to determine who has to do back-breaking work all day, and who doesn't. Maybe, but are you insinuating that no back breaking work would need to be done if money weren’t to exist? Pretty sure the introduction of money reduces the total amount of backbreaking work to be done. Instead of hauling grain to trade for axe heads and carrying those back to your farm, you carry coins,…

Very likely much less "work" would need to be done. There are a lot of bullshit jobs that are not productive and are just making people feel bad.

Re: There’s Nothing to Do Except Gamble

#174

Post by 99_00 »

This article is the a sign of a speculative mania peaking.

There is a lot of liquidity. But liquidity has a bad habit of disappearing when margin calls are made.

Don't get me wrong, I'm gambling too. The choice is to join the speculation party or sit out because there is no value to buy. And I'm joining in, but my eye is on the exit.

Re: There’s Nothing to Do Except Gamble

#175

Post by noxer »

jayd16 wrote: post #95
Al-Khwarizmi wrote: post #78

Financial elites have been gambling for decades. They seem to be really upset that the plebs now can also do it. When brokers did it it was OK, when algorithms did it in milliseconds (when common people can only operate with delays of hours and days, and with deterrent fees) it was OK, but now that there are platforms that allow more or less anyone to speculate, we start publishing moralistic pieces in the media and…

>Financial elites have been gambling for decades. They seem to be really upset that the plebs now can also do it. I really don't understand this sentiment, as if a professional gambler would not gladly gamble with novices...but putting that aside... I think the emphasis is more about how there's no other game in town that can compete, not that gambling is new. Interest rates are so low that there isn't a simple/safe…

The simple/safe/reliable 10% was a fluke that should never exist. Profit and risk must be in balance. If it isn't it should attracts more and more people until the balance is reached. Making it hard for people to join to keep it unbalanced is what happened and its slowly going away now.

Re: There’s Nothing to Do Except Gamble

#176

Post by rud7udehev »

danenania wrote: post #148
ameister14 wrote: post #130

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>I really don't understand this sentiment, as if a professional gambler would not gladly gamble with novices... There are a few cases I can think of immediately where this applies - gambling with novices in Blackjack, for example, is not ideal. They'll screw up the flow of cards and can cause your math to go haywire. The same happens with Hold-em or Omaha Poker - you want people to have enough skill to play the game…

That's not the case in poker. If someone thinks a novice player is messing them up somehow with poor play, it means they're not a good player either. A good poker player wants their opponents to play as poorly as possible.

This is the sort of statement that sounds good to idiots and people who've never played poker. Anyone who's made money at casino poker is aware of how much of a hassle retards spasming at the card table can make things even if they're going to lose in the end.

Re: There’s Nothing to Do Except Gamble

#177

Post by m3ta4a »

isoskeles wrote: post #161
m3ta4a wrote: post #114

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In no world where there is a "duty" to provide value am I going to be found happily providing value. In this world, in my experience, your statement is simply false. If I happen to provide some form of value it is from my choosing to, not to satisfy the demands of some formless "duty".

The "duty" is to satisfy the demands of existing within a community of people, where able-bodied freeloaders are never welcome. But I can understand nitpicking over semantics. Replace the word "duty" with whatever you want.

Nonsense, a different word doesn't suddenly make it universally true. It could be a guiding philosophy, something like "to live a good life provide value to your community". But it is in no practical way a rule.

Re: There’s Nothing to Do Except Gamble

#178

Post by RugnirViking »

toss1 wrote: post #58
RugnirViking wrote: post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Is that arguably true? Where is the stuff? In the hands of increasingly few people, namely tech billionaires. Amazon for example is worth more than all but 18 of the entire world's sovereign nations' respective GDP. The economy has grown tremendously, in measurable terms, but that growth has almost exclusively gone to the 0.1%

True And also much of the 'stuff' is here, or converted to services. 25 yrs ago, approx no one had 55"+ tvs, internet connection was a minority, and media eas collections of CDs/Videotapes. Now 'net connections are near-universal, and it is all streaming. Cell phones were just beginning & expensive, now everyone has a powerful computer in their pocket. We don't have two houses, but the ones we have are worth twice as…

Those things became cheaper to produce because of technological advancement, largely developed by people who did not benefit from this rise in production. They do not represent wealth in any meaningful sense. Wealth is economic power, and 55" TVs dont help you start a buisness or pay a downpayment for a mortgage. Internet connection may once have served as some measure of economic power, but its no coincidence that those with the power currently are doing everything they can to restrict the rights of normal people to create using it.

Imo, its really about things that give you more agency over your own life and the world. Cars are good, they represent a great increase in our ability to travel and make decisions for ourselves.

> We don't have two houses, but the ones we have are worth twice as much.

This is largely a wealth transfer to the elderly. Among under 40s, home ownership has fallen consistently since the 1990s, with only a brief increase in 2001-2005.

Re: There’s Nothing to Do Except Gamble

#179

Post by pfisch »

mytherin wrote: post #119
onlyrealcuzzo wrote: post #88

Earlier quoted context omitted.

2% of the world's wealth is tied up in crypto (and it's growing quickly). If it does implode, that'll make The Great Financial Crisis look like blip. At this point, I can't imagine financial regulators doing anything to stop it.

What will actually happen if the crypto coins collapse in price? What tangible effects will there be? Very few people's salaries are paid in crypto, crypto isn't backing people's mortgages, and outside of the rare (and newsworthy) cases, people are not investing extreme amounts of money into crypto that they cannot possibly afford to lose. I have a hard time imagining what actual tangible disasters will happen if cry…

Now do gold.

Re: There’s Nothing to Do Except Gamble

#180

Post by kgwgk »

paulpauper wrote: post #159
second--shift wrote: post #146

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> a 3x funds pays 3x the dividends what? which funds pay 3x dividends? All of the leveraged ETFs i'm familiar with replicate the 3x exposure with futures contracts, which do not pay dividends. the drag exists when these futures contracts are in contango, where the back-month is more expensive than the front-month. The leveraged ETF pays that drag every time the fund rolls to the next futures. Nothing to do with borro…

it would only be in contago if there is borrow and storage cost. This applies to commodities. But stocks pay dividends, so this can cease backwardation if interest rates are low relative to dividends.

But where are the 3x funds that pay 3x the dividends?
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