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There’s Nothing to Do Except Gamble

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Re: There’s Nothing to Do Except Gamble

#141

Post by paulpauper »

jayd16 wrote: post #95
Al-Khwarizmi wrote: post #78

Financial elites have been gambling for decades. They seem to be really upset that the plebs now can also do it. When brokers did it it was OK, when algorithms did it in milliseconds (when common people can only operate with delays of hours and days, and with deterrent fees) it was OK, but now that there are platforms that allow more or less anyone to speculate, we start publishing moralistic pieces in the media and…

>Financial elites have been gambling for decades. They seem to be really upset that the plebs now can also do it. I really don't understand this sentiment, as if a professional gambler would not gladly gamble with novices...but putting that aside... I think the emphasis is more about how there's no other game in town that can compete, not that gambling is new. Interest rates are so low that there isn't a simple/safe…

yeah ..had he ever head of house edge or the house cut/vig.

Re: There’s Nothing to Do Except Gamble

#142

Post by richardwhiuk »

jp555 wrote: post #4

Zero mention of the recent unprecedented fiat currency printing we've seen, nor the fact that every time since the Tang Dynasty when we have done this, it has led to very troubling times 12-18 months later. Everyone is gambling even if they dont know Crypto exists.

TFA:

> Asked if the money the Fed was injecting into banks in the wake of the global financial crisis was “taxpayer money,” Bernanke shook his head and grinned sheepishly. “To lend to a bank,” he said, “we simply use the computer to mark up the size of the account that they have with the Fed.”

Re: There’s Nothing to Do Except Gamble

#143

Post by paulgb »

jayd16 wrote: post #95
Al-Khwarizmi wrote: post #78

Financial elites have been gambling for decades. They seem to be really upset that the plebs now can also do it. When brokers did it it was OK, when algorithms did it in milliseconds (when common people can only operate with delays of hours and days, and with deterrent fees) it was OK, but now that there are platforms that allow more or less anyone to speculate, we start publishing moralistic pieces in the media and…

>Financial elites have been gambling for decades. They seem to be really upset that the plebs now can also do it. I really don't understand this sentiment, as if a professional gambler would not gladly gamble with novices...but putting that aside... I think the emphasis is more about how there's no other game in town that can compete, not that gambling is new. Interest rates are so low that there isn't a simple/safe…

> I really don't understand this sentiment

I agree, but I also don’t see this sentiment coming from the industry itself, with the exception of some people who go along with that narrative to get some TV time. It really seems to me more like the financial TV media are the ones who feel threatened by the emergence of WSB etc. and portray it as if it’s the sentiment of the broader investing community. But largely that community is just excited by any novelty as it creates opportunities that boring times don’t.

Re: There’s Nothing to Do Except Gamble

#144

Post by ska »

jayd16 wrote: post #95
Al-Khwarizmi wrote: post #78

Financial elites have been gambling for decades. They seem to be really upset that the plebs now can also do it. When brokers did it it was OK, when algorithms did it in milliseconds (when common people can only operate with delays of hours and days, and with deterrent fees) it was OK, but now that there are platforms that allow more or less anyone to speculate, we start publishing moralistic pieces in the media and…

>Financial elites have been gambling for decades. They seem to be really upset that the plebs now can also do it. I really don't understand this sentiment, as if a professional gambler would not gladly gamble with novices...but putting that aside... I think the emphasis is more about how there's no other game in town that can compete, not that gambling is new. Interest rates are so low that there isn't a simple/safe…

> isn't a simple/safe investment entity to pull out a reliable 10%.

Long run even the stock market only averages about 7%, and that isn't simple or safe - but it beats other asset classes on return. Asking for a risk-free 10% is pretty much a fantasy.

One weird thing about the amount of volatility in recent years is that people are simultaneously used to the idea that their "cash savings" earn approximately nothing, but turn their noses up at a 5%-7% return. Historically speaking this irrational.

Re: There’s Nothing to Do Except Gamble

#145

Post by ClumsyPilot »

svachalek wrote: post #126
diamondhandle wrote: post #26

Our job in life is to engage in value creation. When money is decoupled from value creation, your long-term bet is that it will lose its value, as value creation is what actually matters in the “real” world. This is also why “crypto” (the asset class, not technology) is so corrosive, because it makes people who have done approximately nothing to create value in society, but who’ve enjoyed a massive boost in monetary…

The whole economy feels like nonsense now. There's a massive overabundance of both capital and labor required to meet actual needs, so we keep creating ever more useless games to play with capital so that we can create more capital that the world doesn't need or actually use. In the meantime, massive portions of the population are struggling to make ends meet. I don't know where this ends but it can't be good.

Exactly, even a blind should be able to see that we spmehow have broken the system

Re: There’s Nothing to Do Except Gamble

#146

Post by second--shift »

paulpauper wrote: post #82
second--shift wrote: post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The contango drag on 3x ETFs is hilarious - good luck on your endeavors sir, I've got futures contracts for sale for your fund manager to buy.

no it's not. it is actually positive due to the dividends . a 3x funds pays 3x the dividends . the borrow cost is only 1%, versus 2% dividend

> a 3x funds pays 3x the dividends

what? which funds pay 3x dividends? All of the leveraged ETFs i'm familiar with replicate the 3x exposure with futures contracts, which do not pay dividends. the drag exists when these futures contracts are in contango, where the back-month is more expensive than the front-month. The leveraged ETF pays that drag every time the fund rolls to the next futures. Nothing to do with borrowing costs.

This is also the reason why USO trends down long term, regardless of the spot price of oil.

Re: There’s Nothing to Do Except Gamble

#147

Post by backtoyoujim »

jayd16 wrote: post #95
Al-Khwarizmi wrote: post #78

Financial elites have been gambling for decades. They seem to be really upset that the plebs now can also do it. When brokers did it it was OK, when algorithms did it in milliseconds (when common people can only operate with delays of hours and days, and with deterrent fees) it was OK, but now that there are platforms that allow more or less anyone to speculate, we start publishing moralistic pieces in the media and…

>Financial elites have been gambling for decades. They seem to be really upset that the plebs now can also do it. I really don't understand this sentiment, as if a professional gambler would not gladly gamble with novices...but putting that aside... I think the emphasis is more about how there's no other game in town that can compete, not that gambling is new. Interest rates are so low that there isn't a simple/safe…

we all gamble that have excess money to do so.

there is a huger "we all" that don't.

Re: There’s Nothing to Do Except Gamble

#148

Post by danenania »

ameister14 wrote: post #130
jayd16 wrote: post #95

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Financial elites have been gambling for decades. They seem to be really upset that the plebs now can also do it. I really don't understand this sentiment, as if a professional gambler would not gladly gamble with novices...but putting that aside... I think the emphasis is more about how there's no other game in town that can compete, not that gambling is new. Interest rates are so low that there isn't a simple/safe…

>I really don't understand this sentiment, as if a professional gambler would not gladly gamble with novices... There are a few cases I can think of immediately where this applies - gambling with novices in Blackjack, for example, is not ideal. They'll screw up the flow of cards and can cause your math to go haywire. The same happens with Hold-em or Omaha Poker - you want people to have enough skill to play the game…

That's not the case in poker. If someone thinks a novice player is messing them up somehow with poor play, it means they're not a good player either. A good poker player wants their opponents to play as poorly as possible.

Re: There’s Nothing to Do Except Gamble

#149

Post by nunez »

Al-Khwarizmi wrote: post #78

Financial elites have been gambling for decades. They seem to be really upset that the plebs now can also do it. When brokers did it it was OK, when algorithms did it in milliseconds (when common people can only operate with delays of hours and days, and with deterrent fees) it was OK, but now that there are platforms that allow more or less anyone to speculate, we start publishing moralistic pieces in the media and…

SPACs are the perfect example of this.

Before SPACs, retail couldn't get into IPOs at anything lower than $40/share...and even that was _after_ missing the initial pop that happens once the ticker starts trading.

Now that retail can get into (support) exciting companies at a MUCH lower floor ($10 for commons, $2.50 for warrants), "SPAC bad" hit pieces are a dime a dozen and some brokers (Merrill Lynch, for example) won't allow retail to trade them unless they have $n million in net worth.

Are SPACs riskier? Of course they are. Are they any riskier than IPOs (which can and do trade lower than first-day valuation)? I don't think so. Retail finally has a shot at the same pathways for wealth than IBs and others have had since forever...and we can't have that.

Re: There’s Nothing to Do Except Gamble

#150

Post by jayd16 »

ska wrote: post #144
jayd16 wrote: post #95

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Financial elites have been gambling for decades. They seem to be really upset that the plebs now can also do it. I really don't understand this sentiment, as if a professional gambler would not gladly gamble with novices...but putting that aside... I think the emphasis is more about how there's no other game in town that can compete, not that gambling is new. Interest rates are so low that there isn't a simple/safe…

> isn't a simple/safe investment entity to pull out a reliable 10%. Long run even the stock market only averages about 7%, and that isn't simple or safe - but it beats other asset classes on return. Asking for a risk-free 10% is pretty much a fantasy. One weird thing about the amount of volatility in recent years is that people are simultaneously used to the idea that their "cash savings" earn approximately nothing,…

Sorry, you're right. I was lazy in my rounding. That said, the exact number isn't too relevant to my point.
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