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There’s Nothing to Do Except Gamble

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Re: There’s Nothing to Do Except Gamble

#111

Post by jasode »

XorNot wrote: post #94
jasode wrote: post #77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Crypto is exploding because people are looking to get rich via speculation, that's it. No, that isn't just it. Like other assets, there can be multiple narratives that explain cryptocurrencies rising prices. Yes, pure speculation is one of them. But another reason for some is deliberately shifting wealth from an asset ($USD, euro, bolivar, etc) they believe is deteriorating . E.g. a multi-billionaire like Ray Dalio…

Ray Dalio at no point in his life ever believed he should be keeping his wealth in "cash". It has been basic economic knowledge that cash is a terrible place to keep large idle piles of wealth, and that it has to be invested to not depreciate. This is not new information, this is literally by design as a product of the Fed's 2% inflation target. US treasuries have always been a last resort investment, because the ret…

>Ray Dalio at no point in his life ever believed he should be keeping his wealth in "cash".

I'm not saying that. His recent "cash is trash" was talking about staying away from investments like US government bonds because of negative yields and money printing: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tZyWVxGXPHo&t=24s

(Because in the past, reasonable people did believe that buying and holding US Treasuries was a semi-decent way of investing. To be clear, we're not talking about just leaving pure cash in a $250k FDIC-insure bank savings account.)

>the US has at various points been able to issue them with negative interest rates - taking a loss has been less of a loss then just holding currency and no better options existed.

And this is the part I was responding to in your first comment. It's not just speculators. Another narrative for crypto's rising price is that some investors believe a better option now exists for preserving purchasing power. This is the defensive financial perspective that can simultaneously exist with other market participants who are only in bitcoin for the casino gambling speculation.

Yes, some people buy real estate and just leave the houses empty for "speculation". But some others also buy houses to live in them and many buyers bid up prices with competing offers because of desirable location closer to the office. If there can be 2 or more different narratives for rising real estate prices, why can't there be multiple narratives to explain crypto?

Re: There’s Nothing to Do Except Gamble

#113

Post by [deleted] »

isoskeles wrote: post #96
eli_gottlieb wrote: post #85

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Our job in life is to engage in value creation. I don't think there's any non-tautological way in which this can be simultaneously true and not an oppressive imposition by capitalism.

Even without capitalism, you have a duty to create value for the people around you, and you might expect the same of them. There are exceptions for the young, old, and infirm.

[deleted]

Re: There’s Nothing to Do Except Gamble

#114

Post by m3ta4a »

isoskeles wrote: post #96
eli_gottlieb wrote: post #85

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Our job in life is to engage in value creation. I don't think there's any non-tautological way in which this can be simultaneously true and not an oppressive imposition by capitalism.

Even without capitalism, you have a duty to create value for the people around you, and you might expect the same of them. There are exceptions for the young, old, and infirm.

In no world where there is a "duty" to provide value am I going to be found happily providing value. In this world, in my experience, your statement is simply false. If I happen to provide some form of value it is from my choosing to, not to satisfy the demands of some formless "duty".

Re: There’s Nothing to Do Except Gamble

#115

Post by bondarchuk »

jayd16 wrote: post #95
Al-Khwarizmi wrote: post #78

Financial elites have been gambling for decades. They seem to be really upset that the plebs now can also do it. When brokers did it it was OK, when algorithms did it in milliseconds (when common people can only operate with delays of hours and days, and with deterrent fees) it was OK, but now that there are platforms that allow more or less anyone to speculate, we start publishing moralistic pieces in the media and…

>Financial elites have been gambling for decades. They seem to be really upset that the plebs now can also do it. I really don't understand this sentiment, as if a professional gambler would not gladly gamble with novices...but putting that aside... I think the emphasis is more about how there's no other game in town that can compete, not that gambling is new. Interest rates are so low that there isn't a simple/safe…

>I really don't understand this sentiment, as if a professional gambler would not gladly gamble with novices...

The existence of a financial elite hinges on the existence of a non-elite that actually does the work. If workers are putting 25% of their paychecks in an index fund and retire a few years earlier, instead of paying off their too-expensive car loan or something, it will be bad for the current financial elite.

In the end money is just an abstraction to determine who has to do back-breaking work all day, and who doesn't.

Re: There’s Nothing to Do Except Gamble

#116

Post by wallacoloo »

sigstoat wrote: post #90
JMTQp8lwXL wrote: post #69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Did Visa create no value in society with plastic payment cards? If crypto is valueless, payment processors are valueless too. It's unfortunate that Visa gets a 2% tax on the economy, but the convenience of plastic or a public/private keypair unlocks more economic growth compared to a world with only paper cash.

> on the economy a 2% "tax", on retail sales, at best. b2b, c2c, and large dollar b2c generally don't go through visa. calling it a "tax" is nauseating. you get something from visa, and you can choose not use them, if you'd like. it's the rare place that won't take at least a few other alternative payments, including cash. it's a rarer tax yet that you can choose not to pay.

> it's the rare place that won't take at least a few other alternative payments, including cash.

Yes, and when you pay with an alternative, that’s when you get hit with the 2% credit card tax. Because you and the credit card user both pay the same price, but the merchant has to raise prices by 2% to cover fees caused by the latter. The credit card user is reimbursed for the fees they created via cash-back programs, while the cash user has to just swallow them.

Re: There’s Nothing to Do Except Gamble

#117

Post by Ekaros »

jayd16 wrote: post #95
Al-Khwarizmi wrote: post #78

Financial elites have been gambling for decades. They seem to be really upset that the plebs now can also do it. When brokers did it it was OK, when algorithms did it in milliseconds (when common people can only operate with delays of hours and days, and with deterrent fees) it was OK, but now that there are platforms that allow more or less anyone to speculate, we start publishing moralistic pieces in the media and…

>Financial elites have been gambling for decades. They seem to be really upset that the plebs now can also do it. I really don't understand this sentiment, as if a professional gambler would not gladly gamble with novices...but putting that aside... I think the emphasis is more about how there's no other game in town that can compete, not that gambling is new. Interest rates are so low that there isn't a simple/safe…

Professionals have more money and experience. They should be winning really. Or at least know when to cut losses and move to other side...

Re: There’s Nothing to Do Except Gamble

#118

Post by JMTQp8lwXL »

sigstoat wrote: post #90
JMTQp8lwXL wrote: post #69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Did Visa create no value in society with plastic payment cards? If crypto is valueless, payment processors are valueless too. It's unfortunate that Visa gets a 2% tax on the economy, but the convenience of plastic or a public/private keypair unlocks more economic growth compared to a world with only paper cash.

> on the economy a 2% "tax", on retail sales, at best. b2b, c2c, and large dollar b2c generally don't go through visa. calling it a "tax" is nauseating. you get something from visa, and you can choose not use them, if you'd like. it's the rare place that won't take at least a few other alternative payments, including cash. it's a rarer tax yet that you can choose not to pay.

Semantically, would 'haircut' be a preferable term to describe what's occurring? Visa isn't some government-mandated thing, so I agree that 'tax' is overloaded, but it isn't meant literally. Given the nearly omniscient use of plastic payment methods, that's why "tax" is used: everybody pays taxes.

Re: There’s Nothing to Do Except Gamble

#119

Post by mytherin »

onlyrealcuzzo wrote: post #88
diamondhandle wrote: post #26

Our job in life is to engage in value creation. When money is decoupled from value creation, your long-term bet is that it will lose its value, as value creation is what actually matters in the “real” world. This is also why “crypto” (the asset class, not technology) is so corrosive, because it makes people who have done approximately nothing to create value in society, but who’ve enjoyed a massive boost in monetary…

2% of the world's wealth is tied up in crypto (and it's growing quickly). If it does implode, that'll make The Great Financial Crisis look like blip. At this point, I can't imagine financial regulators doing anything to stop it.

What will actually happen if the crypto coins collapse in price? What tangible effects will there be? Very few people's salaries are paid in crypto, crypto isn't backing people's mortgages, and outside of the rare (and newsworthy) cases, people are not investing extreme amounts of money into crypto that they cannot possibly afford to lose.

I have a hard time imagining what actual tangible disasters will happen if crypto currencies lose their value overnight besides some speculators losing money and some mining centers closing.

Re: There’s Nothing to Do Except Gamble

#120

Post by tekromancr »

paulpauper wrote: post #9

How many people are actually getting rich with NFTs besides people who who are already celebrities/famous? Not many. The market is flooded now with NTFs. The overwhelming majority of listings do not sell or sell for little. A better way to make money is with 3x ETFs using options strategies, which I am working on. The performance of some of the major 3x funds such as TECL, FNGU, and TQQQ surpass even Bitcoin

Ah, 3x ETFs. For the sophisticated degenerate.
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