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There’s Nothing to Do Except Gamble

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Re: There’s Nothing to Do Except Gamble

#101

Post by real-dino »

alecst wrote: post #83
real-dino wrote: post #71

GME is actually quite a solid gamble, and could lead to what people are referring to as the MOASS. https://iamnotafinancialadvisor.com/DD/GME/og/GMEv14.pdf It hasn't alreadys been like this, but everything has been turned into overdrive. Where people were talking about 10% returns on investments, people are getting 1000% returns on investment. There is some bubble going on at the moment with the repo-market, hyper in…

I'll take you up on that. What's your thoughts on how many GME investors are retail vs. institutional? Any idea on what the breakdown is like?

Honestly, no-one knows, except maybe Citadel and brokers who run via 'payment for order flow'

There have been estimates using subscriber counts on subreddits and an average value which feels like complete BS, and there are some brokers who broadcast how many they own.

However, institutional ownership for the top 10 is 192%

http://finra-markets.morningstar.com/MarketData/EquityOption...

Even Finra don't seem to know properly, the sums don't add up.

Re: There’s Nothing to Do Except Gamble

#103

Post by LargeWu »

whatgoodisaroad wrote: post #68

Weird how finance suddenly becomes "gambling" when a bunch of regular people join the table.

If you think about the difference between "investing" and "speculating" (ie. gambling), the latter involves no actual value creation, just transfer of assets based on outcomes the speculating party has no influence over. Crypto, meme stocks, penny stocks...just pure speculation. To be fair, hedge funds and HFT are also mostly speculation, just a more sophisticated version.

Re: There’s Nothing to Do Except Gamble

#104

Post by entropicdrifter »

Mizza wrote: post #76
diamondhandle wrote: post #26

Our job in life is to engage in value creation. When money is decoupled from value creation, your long-term bet is that it will lose its value, as value creation is what actually matters in the “real” world. This is also why “crypto” (the asset class, not technology) is so corrosive, because it makes people who have done approximately nothing to create value in society, but who’ve enjoyed a massive boost in monetary…

> as value creation is what actually matters in the “real” world. I guess this is the thing that people are having a hard time coming to terms with - we no longer live in the real world. All of these surveillance-advertising tech giants, all of these financial instruments, all of these media-induced bad feelings and ideological trends, everything that defines our contemporary era - none if it is real. If it all simpl…

> My bet is that we'd all be happier for it.

Yeah, except for those who'd suddenly be without electronic medical assistance. There are definite downsides to the digital era, but to act as if there's been no benefit is laughable at best and dangerously ignorant of the past at worst.

Re: There’s Nothing to Do Except Gamble

#105

Post by eli_gottlieb »

isoskeles wrote: post #96
eli_gottlieb wrote: post #85

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Our job in life is to engage in value creation. I don't think there's any non-tautological way in which this can be simultaneously true and not an oppressive imposition by capitalism.

Even without capitalism, you have a duty to create value for the people around you, and you might expect the same of them. There are exceptions for the young, old, and infirm.

That's the tautological branch of the dilemma, yes.

Re: There’s Nothing to Do Except Gamble

#106

Post by beiller »

TRcontrarian wrote: post #15

Is it better to live in a world where the future is unknown, and the best we can do is guess where value will be, or one where the future is known, and the prices of all investments are stable and already priced at their exact values? In which world is optimism and class mobility possible?

Excellent point. And to drive a steak further into this idea - ironically gambling is the one where all the prices / chance / rewards are absolutely known up front and calculable. I guess that's what sets wall st. apart from gambling in a casino.

Re: There’s Nothing to Do Except Gamble

#107

Post by [deleted] »

isoskeles wrote: post #96
eli_gottlieb wrote: post #85

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Our job in life is to engage in value creation. I don't think there's any non-tautological way in which this can be simultaneously true and not an oppressive imposition by capitalism.

Even without capitalism, you have a duty to create value for the people around you, and you might expect the same of them. There are exceptions for the young, old, and infirm.

[deleted]

Re: There’s Nothing to Do Except Gamble

#108

Post by acheron »

sjg007 wrote: post #43
diamondhandle wrote: post #26

Our job in life is to engage in value creation. When money is decoupled from value creation, your long-term bet is that it will lose its value, as value creation is what actually matters in the “real” world. This is also why “crypto” (the asset class, not technology) is so corrosive, because it makes people who have done approximately nothing to create value in society, but who’ve enjoyed a massive boost in monetary…

I mean the crypto folks bought in at the right time? It's like finding oil under your land. For some reason you bought into it and that's takes some type of skill.

For some reason my friend bet on 26 last spin and won, that takes some skill.

Re: There’s Nothing to Do Except Gamble

#109

Post by nscalf »

diamondhandle wrote: post #26

Our job in life is to engage in value creation. When money is decoupled from value creation, your long-term bet is that it will lose its value, as value creation is what actually matters in the “real” world. This is also why “crypto” (the asset class, not technology) is so corrosive, because it makes people who have done approximately nothing to create value in society, but who’ve enjoyed a massive boost in monetary…

That's really nice in theory, but in the real world money IS a proxy for time and value creation. Having money is the same thing has being able to create value, and gives you freedom to create value at your own pace however you want.

Crypto as an asset class is only working the way it is because there is a separation between perceived value and net present value. The same way fundamentalists value companies by expected earnings and angel investors look at the TAM, crypto is blowing up in large part because people are starting to believe in the story that crypto is pinned to.

At the end of the day, you probably should have some skills to fall back on and not depend on an asset increasing in value, but if you have enough assets, that is your skill.

Re: There’s Nothing to Do Except Gamble

#110

Post by hpoe »

ac29 wrote: post #73
jp555 wrote: post #4

Zero mention of the recent unprecedented fiat currency printing we've seen, nor the fact that every time since the Tang Dynasty when we have done this, it has led to very troubling times 12-18 months later. Everyone is gambling even if they dont know Crypto exists.

The US printed and spent tons of money during World War 2, and the postwar period was one of, if not the largest economic expansions in its modern history.

I see this argument come up a lot, I'd like to point out 2 points.

1) Wealth wasn't created during WW2, almost all of the increased production went to things like bombs and tanks and bullets, these things don't provide a real increase in quality of life this is one of the main points in 1984, people need to be kept busy, but Quality of Life can't increase.

2) The postwar boom was largely a result of everyone except America being unable to really produce because their economy and workforce was shattered. When you suddenly have 66% percent of the world only able to purchase from you, that's a lot of demand that you can then serve.

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