Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

There’s Nothing to Do Except Gamble

nymag.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

91–100 of 409 posts

Re: There’s Nothing to Do Except Gamble

#91

Post by avidphantasm »

XorNot wrote: post #66
Mattasher wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I agree with your last statement, but I think you are mixing cause and effect. Crypto is exploding because our system is already corroded. Starting with the creation of the Fed, and tracing through endless money printing and complex financial instruments which let well-connected companies and politicians create paper wealth out of nothing, we've decoupled money from value. Savings pay no interest, manual labor doesn'…

Crypto is exploding because people are looking to get rich via speculation, that's it. There's a wealth of uninformed investors and they're all hearing stories about crypto millionaires and how much it went up and FOMO narratives about it. People haven't been transacting in crypto basically at all - it's not even a blip in the popular discussion about it, except as a flimsy justification for why its value is not tuli…

“People haven’t been transacting in crypto basically at all”

Exactly. When I did a deep dive on crypto currency a few years ago I wondered, what can the transaction rate be for proof of work schemes. Turned out it was less than a dozen per second across an entire network. I don’t think this has changed (https://bitcoinvisuals.com/chain-tx-day). How many transactions does Visa alone do?

Re: There’s Nothing to Do Except Gamble

#92

Post by the_local_host »

Al-Khwarizmi wrote: post #78

Financial elites have been gambling for decades. They seem to be really upset that the plebs now can also do it. When brokers did it it was OK, when algorithms did it in milliseconds (when common people can only operate with delays of hours and days, and with deterrent fees) it was OK, but now that there are platforms that allow more or less anyone to speculate, we start publishing moralistic pieces in the media and…

Professionals don't gamble with their own money. They gamble with other people's money, and keep a percentage if they win.

"Common people" are entering the game without the most important piece of equipment they need, namely a pile of money that doesn't come out of their own pocket if they lose.

Re: There’s Nothing to Do Except Gamble

#93

Post by beiller »

diamondhandle wrote: post #26

Our job in life is to engage in value creation. When money is decoupled from value creation, your long-term bet is that it will lose its value, as value creation is what actually matters in the “real” world. This is also why “crypto” (the asset class, not technology) is so corrosive, because it makes people who have done approximately nothing to create value in society, but who’ve enjoyed a massive boost in monetary…

The problem is that economy and technology shifts. Not so great when you are a cold fusion developer today as an example. So it is required to hedge against that isn't it. You need to ensure you have a future by saving for retirement. I've been saying "it will eventually collapse" for what seems like forever now. The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent - to borrow a cliché.

Re: There’s Nothing to Do Except Gamble

#94

Post by XorNot »

jasode wrote: post #77
XorNot wrote: post #66

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Crypto is exploding because people are looking to get rich via speculation, that's it. There's a wealth of uninformed investors and they're all hearing stories about crypto millionaires and how much it went up and FOMO narratives about it. People haven't been transacting in crypto basically at all - it's not even a blip in the popular discussion about it, except as a flimsy justification for why its value is not tuli…

>Crypto is exploding because people are looking to get rich via speculation, that's it. No, that isn't just it. Like other assets, there can be multiple narratives that explain cryptocurrencies rising prices. Yes, pure speculation is one of them. But another reason for some is deliberately shifting wealth from an asset ($USD, euro, bolivar, etc) they believe is deteriorating . E.g. a multi-billionaire like Ray Dalio…

Ray Dalio at no point in his life ever believed he should be keeping his wealth in "cash". It has been basic economic knowledge that cash is a terrible place to keep large idle piles of wealth, and that it has to be invested to not depreciate.

This is not new information, this is literally by design as a product of the Fed's 2% inflation target.

US treasuries have always been a last resort investment, because the return sucks but they're as close to risk free as anything ever gets - what's happened recently is demand for them has been so incredibly high (because better investments are so rare) that the US has at various points been able to issue them with negative interest rates - taking a loss has been less of a loss then just holding currency and no better options existed.

Crypto has a narrative being pushed to increase the value of crypto, but "the end if nigh" doomsayers definitely don't act like they think it's actually coming - otherwise they'd be diversified into Swedish gold depositories and basically planning to move country. Because come whatever "collapse" they think is going to happen...the power company is still going to want to be paid in USD.

Re: There’s Nothing to Do Except Gamble

#95

Post by jayd16 »

Al-Khwarizmi wrote: post #78

Financial elites have been gambling for decades. They seem to be really upset that the plebs now can also do it. When brokers did it it was OK, when algorithms did it in milliseconds (when common people can only operate with delays of hours and days, and with deterrent fees) it was OK, but now that there are platforms that allow more or less anyone to speculate, we start publishing moralistic pieces in the media and…

>Financial elites have been gambling for decades. They seem to be really upset that the plebs now can also do it.

I really don't understand this sentiment, as if a professional gambler would not gladly gamble with novices...but putting that aside...

I think the emphasis is more about how there's no other game in town that can compete, not that gambling is new.

Interest rates are so low that there isn't a simple/safe investment entity to pull out a reliable 10%. We're all stuck gambling whether we want to or not.

Re: There’s Nothing to Do Except Gamble

#96

Post by isoskeles »

eli_gottlieb wrote: post #85
diamondhandle wrote: post #26

Our job in life is to engage in value creation. When money is decoupled from value creation, your long-term bet is that it will lose its value, as value creation is what actually matters in the “real” world. This is also why “crypto” (the asset class, not technology) is so corrosive, because it makes people who have done approximately nothing to create value in society, but who’ve enjoyed a massive boost in monetary…

>Our job in life is to engage in value creation. I don't think there's any non-tautological way in which this can be simultaneously true and not an oppressive imposition by capitalism.

Even without capitalism, you have a duty to create value for the people around you, and you might expect the same of them. There are exceptions for the young, old, and infirm.

Re: There’s Nothing to Do Except Gamble

#97

Post by alex_anglin »

the_local_host wrote: post #92
Al-Khwarizmi wrote: post #78

Financial elites have been gambling for decades. They seem to be really upset that the plebs now can also do it. When brokers did it it was OK, when algorithms did it in milliseconds (when common people can only operate with delays of hours and days, and with deterrent fees) it was OK, but now that there are platforms that allow more or less anyone to speculate, we start publishing moralistic pieces in the media and…

Professionals don't gamble with their own money . They gamble with other people's money, and keep a percentage if they win. "Common people" are entering the game without the most important piece of equipment they need, namely a pile of money that doesn't come out of their own pocket if they lose.

Thanks to fees, professionals can also keep a portion if they loose. If they under-perform, they also win as long as their clients aren't calling them on it.

Re: There’s Nothing to Do Except Gamble

#98

Post by aqme28 »

tcbawo wrote: post #8

Money is stored wealth, the ability to buy goods and services in the future. The problem seems to be that we live in a time of societal upheaval. The future of stored wealth becomes cloudier and more uncertain the further you go out in time. So, what is the best place to store wealth? Will my wealth be eroded by inflation? Will the companies I invest in become obsolete by technology or market-manipulating nation stat…

> Money is stored wealth

This is sort of a tautology. I like the explanation better that money is a "call option on goods and services."

Re: There’s Nothing to Do Except Gamble

#99

Post by rubicon33 »

throwaway0a5e wrote: post #89
i_haz_rabies wrote: post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What skills can you guarantee (or at least say with high confidence) will be valuable in 20 years? I can't really think of any except maybe "soft skills" and whatever skills allow you to build a large network.

There is no skill that doesn't require upkeep over 20yr. Everything that was valuable in 2001 is still of about the same value now. But the mechanics who didn't want to diagnose electronics and the accountants who refused to learn computers and the programmers who only wanna write php have seen their skills reduced in value because they did not maintain currency. Being responsible for the work output of other people…

This is so hard to do in an industry that also heavily rewards specialists.

I've been regularly asked by my employer to change role to help some other part of the business. Whether it was switching from mobile to server, server to front end web, or switching frameworks / tools within those domains, I always made the switch.

The problem is that now I'm a jack of all trades, and a master of none.

Re: There’s Nothing to Do Except Gamble

#100

Post by h2odragon »

AlexandrB wrote: post #21
paulpauper wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

then how come the US economy boomed after 2009 in spite of unprecedented stimulus and other programs. Not saying that the programs caused the expansion, but it did not seem to hurt it either. Everyone who said that the printing would cause inflation, a repeat crisis, recession, or other problems, were wrong.

Doesn't something feel wrong about the post 2008 "boom"? Theoretically the economy is doing great but you have constant social upheaval, a generation where many are still living with their parents, and the need for constant central bank stimulus in the form of cheap credit. I sometimes wonder if we've managed to mask the real state of the economy by pumping the metrics to make it look like it's fine.

Empty houses everywhere since 2008. Someone has those booked at "full value" as assets, but they're gonna take money to remove before any use of the site can be made; they have negative value.
Post reply on HN