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Coinbase from YC to DPO

blog.ycombinator.com

331–340 of 883 posts

Re: Coinbase from YC to DPO

#331

Anyone know if the 60 employees, who didn't agree with the mission focused approach, kept their shares? https://blog.coinbase.com/a-follow-up-to-coinbase-as-a-missi...

They had the option to exercise whatever options they had vested, yes, subject to the company's normal rules.

Employees who had been with the company two years or more would have seven years to exercise. Those who had been there between one and two years would have 90 days.

Employees who had not yet been there a year would not have reached the vesting cliff, and would not have had vested options available to exercise.

Re: Coinbase from YC to DPO

#332

It's a tiny bit pedantic, but the Coinbase offering today was not actually an IPO, I learned, but a DPO (Direct Public Offering). It was not a fundraising event for Coinbase, only a liquidity event for shareholders, and unlike an IPO no explicit valuation process occurred to select an offering price.

What difference does it make? Shares trading openly on the market is as explicit a valuation process as it gets.

There are a number of important differences, in fact the only meaningful comparison is that they are selling shares to the public.

The title is wrong, there is no IPO. Presumably "IPO" is meant as "public offering." If there's a place to be specific about these things, isn't this thread it?

Re: Coinbase from YC to DPO

#333
post #35

I'm horrendously worried about crypto gaining more marketshare as long as proof of work crypto remains mainstream. It has significantly worse externalities than just about any company I can think of (including defense contractors/vaping companies), and, if it grows larger before we have clean energy, then we virtually guarantee we won't be able to tackle global warming. We are going to bestow a world that will be sig…

You never explicitly stated, but is your argument that the energy consumption of bitcoin is the negative externality?

First of all energy is not fungible, not in time and not in space. There are times where consuming electricity is actually beneficial for renewables and the environment. I think the main mental block people have is that are trained to "save electricity" and that "all energy usage is negative." I would argue that using electricity during periods of wind or solar oversupply is actually positive for the environment. Because of this non-fungibility of energy, proof of work mining can be a positive sum game for the environment. Let me explain:

Back in the days where all our electricity came from fossil fuels, I completely agree that marginal electricity usage was bad for the environment. However I think that thought has persisted with us even though it is no longer true 100% of the time. With renewables sometimes the marginal cost of electricity to our environment is near 0 or even negative (eg, during periods of higher winds and lower demand)

I predict that in the future as bitcoin mining becomes more and more of an efficiency game that you will see bitcoin mining be kind of a load balancer for the grid, effectively turning off during peak demand (or low supply) times and contributing to the base load during regular times. Of course this would be distributed across the globe, and you would see more plants running midday (with solar oversupply) and overnight (with wind oversupply) than you would during early morning and evening peak hours.

For example, it may even help the economics of building new wind plants. Eg, currently it may not be profitable to build a new wind plant because base load is too low that the excess power generated would need to be sold off at 0 or even negative prices. However if bitcoin mining could be turned on during these times and off during periods of high demand, there will need to be fewer peaker plants in operation and it would positively affect the economics of opening a new wind plant.

Bitcoin mining only cares about the cost of electricity at a given time, it is not like most other electricity demands that are very time based. With the large variance of electricity generation by renewables, I think bitcoin can in the future help smooth demand according to the real supply/demand curve.

It's kind of like a different implementation of the Tesla utility grid batteries. Instead of deploying power, you force the grid to build more renewable capacity (that the miners are paying for) that you use except in peak periods, where you turn off and effectively provide the grid with more power.

Here are 2 articles of a bitcoin mining company doing just this: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-09-01/bitcoin-m... https://www.forbes.com/sites/christopherhelman/2020/05/21/ho...

Re: Coinbase from YC to DPO

#334

This is pretty amazing. Gary Tan made a YT video about his experience backing them very early and getting a 6000x return: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x5YApjnTG10 It's remarkable that Brian Armstrong gave up what would have been very valuable options in Airbnb—the most valuable YC company at the time—to found a new company that surpassed it.

Wow. Assuming he put in just $10,000 (and I imagine it was probably more than that), 6000x return would be 60 million dollars. Any early companies out there right now seem like it could potentially offer even a 10th of that in ~5-10 years?

He actually put in $300k, so his shares are worth around 2.4 billion now

Re: Coinbase from YC to DPO

#335

This is pretty amazing. Gary Tan made a YT video about his experience backing them very early and getting a 6000x return: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x5YApjnTG10 It's remarkable that Brian Armstrong gave up what would have been very valuable options in Airbnb—the most valuable YC company at the time—to found a new company that surpassed it.

And in Brian had simply bought bitcoins with his $10.000 in 2012, when the price was $4-$12 per piece?

He could have bought 833-2500 bitcoins, with a current value of $5.2500.000 - $157.500.000.

He choose to do more than "HODL" and go through the hard work of building a product and a company, which in my book, makes him a true hero. Even though he went the casino/shitcoin rout later...

Re: Coinbase from YC to DPO

#336

This is pretty amazing. Gary Tan made a YT video about his experience backing them very early and getting a 6000x return: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x5YApjnTG10 It's remarkable that Brian Armstrong gave up what would have been very valuable options in Airbnb—the most valuable YC company at the time—to found a new company that surpassed it.

Airbnb market cap is at 105 billion and Coinbase is currently at 86. Personally I'm very sceptical that current valuation for Coinbase is justified. It is a great company for sure but there definitely arent similar network effects as with Airbnb. There's plenty of competition in the crypto exchange space.

oh boy, wait until you hear about Tesla

Re: Coinbase from YC to DPO

#337

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> the supposed point of crypto is to reducing the reliance on, and grifting from, companies like Coinbase That was the pitch of crypto. In practice, people are buying it as a bet that it will go up. I suspect most people are only buying it because the value is going up. If bitcoin actually worked like a currency and traded between $8k and $12 for the past 5 years, no one would care.

Global wealth is $400T. All crypto currency combined is worth about ~$2T at this point. So to store 0.5% of the world's wealth, we are using 0.6% of the world's energy. Banks obviously don't use anywhere near this much energy. Bitcoin is estimated to use more energy than all other server farms put together. So we are using 0.6% of the world's energy to store 0.5% of the world's wealth. And Doesn't seem like the ideal…

That's why we need centralized exchanges like coinbase to enable off chain transactions within their walled garden. Then we can have the worst of both worlds.

Re: Coinbase from YC to DPO

#338

Netscape moment…' says Mike Novogratz — Is that a scary quote or what? Netscape did their IPO in 1995 and IE 6 killed them in 2001 but the "body" was finally buried in 2008. It sounds like a self-inflicted curse tempting Goldman or JP Morgan to become their "IE6." YMMV. https://cointelegraph.com/news/coinbase-listing-is-crypto-s-...

Netscape might have died, but it kickstarted the internet revolution in a major way.

Re: Coinbase from YC to DPO

#339

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> POW currencies are guaranteed to prevent this kind of abuse unless any individual entity is able to get more than 51%. There's an incentive in addition to this because corrupting the integrity of the network would also devalue the currency. Larger networks (like BTC) are harder to do a hostile take over of because it's harder to get that much compute (though mining centralization is a risk). Couldn't this be re-wri…

This comment above does a better job than I did at explaining why the staking incentive is somewhat flawed: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=26810686

> PoS is closed-membership with a veneer of open-membership, because the means of coin production are tied to owning a coin already. What this means in practice is that no rational coin-owner is going to sell you coins at a fast enough rate that you'll be able to increase your means of coin production

It seems to me like they're arguing that PoW is more egalitarian/decentralized, which may be a fair point. But using the same argument, attackers being forced to buy stake in the open market should make PoS even more secure against 51% attacks than PoW.

I think this is a good post explaining the tradeoffs: https://vitalik.ca/general/2020/11/06/pos2020.html

Re: Coinbase from YC to DPO

#340

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Wow. Assuming he put in just $10,000 (and I imagine it was probably more than that), 6000x return would be 60 million dollars. Any early companies out there right now seem like it could potentially offer even a 10th of that in ~5-10 years?

He actually put in $300k, so his shares are worth around 2.4 billion now

Did he? If he simply bought bitcoins with his $300.000 in 2012 (average bitcoin price of $8) then his net worth now would be .... 37500 bitcoins or $2.362.500.000 ... 2 point 3 billion frigging dollars...
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