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Is Russia going to war with Ukraine and other questions

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Re: Is Russia going to war with Ukraine and other questions

#101

Post by sergeykish »

shashurup wrote: post #100
sergeykish wrote: post #92

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The country’s official coronavirus death toll is 102,649. But at least 300,000 more people died last year during the pandemic than were reported in Russia’s most widely cited official statistics. 362,302 Total Excess Deaths https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/10/world/europe/covid-russia...

That is interesting. Very reasonable approach. The only problem is that they failed to provide the link to the materials they used in the study. And I don't see death rate statistics for 2020, only for 2019 and before. Publication calendar states that the nearset publication is expected on May, 15.

I have not checked source but it's claimed around the world. There is a link [1] in another article [2]. RF propaganda would react on false claims, silence means it is correct. So far its response is "I can't compare numbers" [3].

[1] https://rosstat.gov.ru/storage/mediabank/TwbjciZH/edn12-2020...

[2] https://www.rbc.ru/economics/08/02/2021/602132e19a7947073f7d...

[3] https://lenta.ru/news/2021/04/12/nyt_kreml/

Re: Is Russia going to war with Ukraine and other questions

#102

Post by SpicyLemonZest »

sergeykish wrote: post #95
SpicyLemonZest wrote: post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It suggests that Russia isn't planning to annex "every free person in the world" as the parent comment suggested. They're taking blatant, aggressive advantage of the Ukrainian Revolution to expand their power and influence, and that's undoubtedly a bad thing to do, but I don't think it indicates any substantial risk to other countries in the region.

Transnistria in Moldova (1991), South Ossetia in Georgia (2008), Crimea and Donbass in Ukraine (2014). They've embraced USSR, claim to return territories, its representatives claims to bomb West. No worries?

Well, worries about what? I'd certainly be worried if I were in charge of a post-Soviet state with unresolved separatist movements, but I'm not sure that's really an issue the international community can solve. It's not as though these regions would be safe and peaceful if Russia weren't taking advantage.

Re: Is Russia going to war with Ukraine and other questions

#103

Post by [deleted] »

sergeykish wrote: post #101
shashurup wrote: post #100

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That is interesting. Very reasonable approach. The only problem is that they failed to provide the link to the materials they used in the study. And I don't see death rate statistics for 2020, only for 2019 and before. Publication calendar states that the nearset publication is expected on May, 15.

I have not checked source but it's claimed around the world. There is a link [1] in another article [2]. RF propaganda would react on false claims, silence means it is correct. So far its response is "I can't compare numbers" [3]. [1] https://rosstat.gov.ru/storage/mediabank/TwbjciZH/edn12-2020... [2] https://www.rbc.ru/economics/08/02/2021/602132e19a7947073f7d... [3] https://lenta.ru/news/2021/04/12/nyt_kreml/

[deleted]

Re: Is Russia going to war with Ukraine and other questions

#104

Post by sergeykish »

SpicyLemonZest wrote: post #102
sergeykish wrote: post #95

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Transnistria in Moldova (1991), South Ossetia in Georgia (2008), Crimea and Donbass in Ukraine (2014). They've embraced USSR, claim to return territories, its representatives claims to bomb West. No worries?

Well, worries about what? I'd certainly be worried if I were in charge of a post-Soviet state with unresolved separatist movements, but I'm not sure that's really an issue the international community can solve. It's not as though these regions would be safe and peaceful if Russia weren't taking advantage.

Are you trolling? Insurgence and indifference, that's what happened in Donbass and Crimea. From start to end it is RF controlled operation.

No one in their mind would ask for "Russian peace", yet they are going to kill us. It is not possible to separate Russian speaking Ukrainians, there are no borders. I speak Russian, Ukrainian, English. For sure my city would be destroyed.

RF claims basically every country with Russian speaking population. Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Belarus. Germany maybe? Their politicians claims dominance over the world. They blame West on every problem, and people believe.

Re: Is Russia going to war with Ukraine and other questions

#105

Post by xqcqx »

sergeykish wrote: post #96
ceilingcorner wrote: post #74

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't really know why you're arguing with me. I'm just trying to explain the situation. With your focus on self-determination: if Ukraine allowed specific regions to hold referendums, it is very likely that many regions would opt to join Russia. Then what? As I have said numerous times now: it is complicated.

Please stop spreading lies. Nothing complicated. Only fools wants to Russia what it become today. State without justice and fair elections, incredibly poor population, no allies. They've claimed they are "brothers". We were not ready to fight in 2014, not ready to kill "brothers". Now we know who they are. This war affected everyone in Ukraine. Every citizen have seen struggles and poverty caused by war. We know what…

What a self-hating looser. I pity you.

Re: Is Russia going to war with Ukraine and other questions

#106

Post by ceilingcorner »

sergeykish wrote: post #96
ceilingcorner wrote: post #74

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't really know why you're arguing with me. I'm just trying to explain the situation. With your focus on self-determination: if Ukraine allowed specific regions to hold referendums, it is very likely that many regions would opt to join Russia. Then what? As I have said numerous times now: it is complicated.

Please stop spreading lies. Nothing complicated. Only fools wants to Russia what it become today. State without justice and fair elections, incredibly poor population, no allies. They've claimed they are "brothers". We were not ready to fight in 2014, not ready to kill "brothers". Now we know who they are. This war affected everyone in Ukraine. Every citizen have seen struggles and poverty caused by war. We know what…

Pro tip: If you ever want to have a genuine discussion with someone, don’t start off by saying they are “spreading lies.”

Re: Is Russia going to war with Ukraine and other questions

#107

Post by sergeykish »

ceilingcorner wrote: post #106
sergeykish wrote: post #96

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Please stop spreading lies. Nothing complicated. Only fools wants to Russia what it become today. State without justice and fair elections, incredibly poor population, no allies. They've claimed they are "brothers". We were not ready to fight in 2014, not ready to kill "brothers". Now we know who they are. This war affected everyone in Ukraine. Every citizen have seen struggles and poverty caused by war. We know what…

Pro tip: If you ever want to have a genuine discussion with someone, don’t start off by saying they are “spreading lies.”

I would understand your comments in 2014. Since than we know so many facts. And the last one — you are commenting on full blown war by Russia on Ukraine territory. Like if bullets knows are we Russian enough. That's selective blindness. Sorry, no hope for genuine discussion.

Re: Is Russia going to war with Ukraine and other questions

#108

Post by ridethebike »

MagnumOpus wrote: post #75
ceilingcorner wrote: post #71

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, it isn't. The historical region is called Rus. Not the same thing.

It is, though. In other languages the etymology is even clearer. In German the place is called Russland for instance.

Australia and Austria

Latvia and Lithuania

South Africa and Africa

You get the gist :)

Re: Is Russia going to war with Ukraine and other questions

#109

Post by ridethebike »

sergeykish wrote: post #98
_xnmw wrote: post #9

Canadian here on the ground in Ukraine, on the Eastern side (Kharkiv). The situation is pretty serious as everyone’s talking about war, and I personally am stocking up on non-perishable food items. The prevailing opinion seems to be that Russia is just flexing muscles, but I personally believe a full scale invasion is in the works. The idea that Putin is trying to extract concessions doesn’t make sense to me, because…

Hello from Kharkiv, article is largely outdated. Russia invasion consolidated Ukrainians. Only NATO could bring peace to my country. Crimea with Russia returns to its native state, land without much water. That was a reason Crimea was handled to Ukraine, on its balance, it was not "present". Putin is trying to distract from internal problems — rising prices, peaceful meetings breakdown, his Palace [1], dying in priso…

Hey, given that you're "on the ground", in your opinion, what is the mood there and what do you think is more likely: - no invasion (flex muscles, drills, go home) - limited invasion - full-scale invasion

Re: Is Russia going to war with Ukraine and other questions

#110

Post by sergeykish »

ridethebike wrote: post #109
sergeykish wrote: post #98

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Hello from Kharkiv, article is largely outdated. Russia invasion consolidated Ukrainians. Only NATO could bring peace to my country. Crimea with Russia returns to its native state, land without much water. That was a reason Crimea was handled to Ukraine, on its balance, it was not "present". Putin is trying to distract from internal problems — rising prices, peaceful meetings breakdown, his Palace [1], dying in priso…

Hey, given that you're "on the ground", in your opinion, what is the mood there and what do you think is more likely: - no invasion (flex muscles, drills, go home) - limited invasion - full-scale invasion

Lets check, in 2014 there were two cases:

* Crimea invasion — unexpected "brother nation" invasion, brainwashing about Ukrainian fascists, largely pro-Russian population.

* Donbass — brainwashing, traitors in government and police, RF mercenaries and brainwashed Russians [1].

Since then largely people understood that "Russian peace" is war, poverty and crime. Pro-Russian parties popularity plummeted, last incarnation got 10% [2]. I do not think it is possible to reproduce Donbass scenario. And invasion would not be praised.

Last remaining option is forceful occupation. War goal is North Crimean Canal [3] in Kherson Oblast [4].

Overall mood — we have to be ready. No one can predict Russia — it's information autocracy. Putin does anything to improve his rating. Crimea annexation improved his approval rating up to 87%. And it is falling again — poverty, Putins palace, Navalny in jail, COVID deaths, too much to hide without external enemy.

I hope it is flexing muscles. Preparation is too obvious, compare with Crimea occupation. Yet we have to be ready for "Russian speaking Ukrainians" from nearby Russian cities. It could happen again. In such case I would be in a city center.

[1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M7NSj8aRWao

[2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opposition_Platform_%E2%80%94_...

[3] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Crimean_Canal

[4] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kherson_Oblast

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