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Skies went dark: Historians pinpoint the 'worst year' ever to be alive

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Re: Skies went dark: Historians pinpoint the 'worst year' ever to be alive

#111
post #54
post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

UK food production minus exports is 55% of the food consumed in the UK. [1] Turn off the exports, and you're going to get close to self-sufficient. If the EU disappeared tomorrow, I doubt the UK would starve . [1] https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/food-statistics-poc...

If people ate money, that would be true. But the important thing for self-sufficiency is not the monetary balance of trade, but the caloric value of trade. It is typical for smaller countries to export high-value refined agricultural products (wine, cheese, etc.) while importing lower-value bulk commodities (grains, oilcrops, etc.) This can cause a vast disparity between the economic and caloric balance of trade. In…

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Re: Skies went dark: Historians pinpoint the 'worst year' ever to be alive

#112

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Moving industry offworld is actually not a bad idea. Especially to the moon. Transport costs Moon-surface -> Earth-surface are ... non-intuitive to say the least.

Non-intuitive, but... expensive.

Well, it starts at "Not actually as bad as I thought", especially when using ISRU; to actually very cheap indeed if you build local infrastructure. (eg. linear accelerator direct to earth's surface is an actual realistic option).

[Assuming people invest in infrastructure], In the mid- to long-term you might be able to ship goods to earth from a moon based factory cheaper than you could from some earth-based locations.

This isn't really anything special about the moon either, mind you. It's the facts that:

* In comparison, Earth has extremely strong gravity;

* Gravity effects compound.

To get some intuition, look at a Saturn V. https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/b/b2/Saturn_v...

To get to the moon from earth, you need the whole thing. To get back, you just need the top half of the lunar module (to get to lunar orbit) the service module (to get to reentry) and the Command module (to survive the reentry). A tiny part of the entire assembly!

(purists might point out that the system could be rather smaller if there was no intention of a return mission... which is fair enough. It's just to get an initial intuition across here!)

Re: Skies went dark: Historians pinpoint the 'worst year' ever to be alive

#113
post #81

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We've only had industry 250 years. Give it 250 million, maybe we sort that out, or most industry moves off planet as in Jeff Bezos vision with blue origin.

Moving industry offworld is actually not a bad idea. Especially to the moon. Transport costs Moon-surface -> Earth-surface are ... non-intuitive to say the least.

Why not just in orbit? Can take products back to earth on returning rockets pretty much for free, or drop them in disposable vehicles if there is more traffic going down than up.

People might ask why do that at all. There are lots of metals in space in concentrated form, solar energy is uninterrupted, and if a large part of your market is off earth it starts to make lots of sense.

Not anytime soon mind you, but one could imagine a future like that pretty easily.

Re: Skies went dark: Historians pinpoint the 'worst year' ever to be alive

#114
post #81

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We've only had industry 250 years. Give it 250 million, maybe we sort that out, or most industry moves off planet as in Jeff Bezos vision with blue origin.

Moving industry offworld is actually not a bad idea. Especially to the moon. Transport costs Moon-surface -> Earth-surface are ... non-intuitive to say the least.

Robert Heinlein’s The Moon Is A Harsh Mistress explored this concept of the low cost of transporting packages from the lunar surface to earth. Now mind you the “packages” were moon rocks shot by catapult at the Earth in a war of independence, but still a really interesting plot point. Everyone should read this book!

Re: Skies went dark: Historians pinpoint the 'worst year' ever to be alive

#115
post #50
post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Food... or fresh/unpolluted water. For food, I think it's a little easier but societies that have a hard time producing would have to adjust what they eat and how they eat it. Also, less meat, less red wine, more beer and more potatoes. The latter are much more sustainable. E.g., In Canada, we'll have to accept we can't have bananas, pineapple, kiwis, mangos any time. We'll have to stick to locally grown apples, way…

In Norway, there is a large import tax on foods like cheese and meat, to encourage buying locally. This seems to work, as most shops only sell Norwegian produce.

Norway is part of the European Economic Area so can’t apply tariffs on goods from within the EU.

Re: Skies went dark: Historians pinpoint the 'worst year' ever to be alive

#116
post #39
post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> A bulk of countries, including where I live, are completely dependant on importing food. Which countries are those? Because I'm pretty sure that no developed country is dependent on importing food to meet the basic caloric needs of its population. Also, a fair amount of food gets fed to animals, which are incredibly inefficient at turning grain calories into meat calories.

Many will be, since you have to factor that it is not only the raw produce of food that needs to be calculated in the equation, but also all inputs needed in producing that food, e.g. fuel, fertilizers, equipment, energy. Take Finland as an example (where I live.) In pure food output terms, we produce 80% of our consumption within the country, and import 20%. However, the means of production are very much dependent o…

It's true, no country is fully self-sufficient in producing all the inputs for food.

The thing is, you're unlikely to be in a food, and fertilizer, and a heavy machinery, and an energy crisis all at the same time. Putin cuts off the gas? Just buy apples from Poland, etc, etc. Generally, the failure modes for trade in all of these are not correlated.

Some foodstuff that goes into animal feedstock, or into wasteful refinement processes (say, beer) can also be eaten directly.

Now, I'm not saying that the government should do nothing about food security... It should encourage domestic production.

Re: Skies went dark: Historians pinpoint the 'worst year' ever to be alive

#117
post #43
post #37

> the 6th-century pandemic was still responsible for destroying at least one-third of the eastern Roman Empire population, leading to its collapse. Say what? What possible connection could there be between the plague of Justinian and the collapse of the Roman Empire several hundred years later?

While the empire continued until the fall of Constantinople in 1453 (depending how you define "empire") the Justinian plague did effectively end the campaign to retake Italy and reunite the Mediterranean under Roman rule. But it marked the beginning of a prolonged slow decline rather than a collapse.

I mean the plague itself was just a blip in the centuries of devastating wars with the Sassanians and then the Arab Muslims.

Re: Skies went dark: Historians pinpoint the 'worst year' ever to be alive

#118
post #116
post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Many will be, since you have to factor that it is not only the raw produce of food that needs to be calculated in the equation, but also all inputs needed in producing that food, e.g. fuel, fertilizers, equipment, energy. Take Finland as an example (where I live.) In pure food output terms, we produce 80% of our consumption within the country, and import 20%. However, the means of production are very much dependent o…

It's true, no country is fully self-sufficient in producing all the inputs for food. The thing is, you're unlikely to be in a food, and fertilizer, and a heavy machinery, and an energy crisis all at the same time. Putin cuts off the gas? Just buy apples from Poland, etc, etc. Generally, the failure modes for trade in all of these are not correlated. Some foodstuff that goes into animal feedstock, or into wasteful ref…

Fair points.

Re: Skies went dark: Historians pinpoint the 'worst year' ever to be alive

#119
post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Supposing that it was an isolated 'the skies go dark' scenario, then being self-sufficient in food is quite a complex question to try to answer, as most food chains require the skies to not be dark, at least not all the time. An interesting (and today, happily, academic) question is what happens to the UK in the event of, say, AMOC (Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation -- aka the gulf stream that sends warm ai…

> An interesting (and today, happily, academic) question is what happens to the UK in the event of, say, AMOC (Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation -- aka the gulf stream that sends warm air up from the equator) shutting down. Noting that London's only 4 degrees latitude away from, say, Moscow. Probably not that much because the notion that the gulf stream shutting down would send Northern Europe into an ice a…

Interesting article, thanks.

Author doesn't mention rainfall impact at all - but my understanding is if AMOC shuts down completely (highly unlikely) UK's arable land drops significantly, because of the reduction in predicted rainfall.

Author also sounds a bit hand-wavey with the claim that '50% of heat comes from east-ward wind patterns, the other 50% comes from stationary waves of atmospheric flow'.

I guess it's feasible that the gulfstream provides zero warmth to the air above it as it flows north and around the UK, but this is a challenging claim.

It's odd the author didn't put in any estimates on temperature change from AMOC shutdown -- elsewhere I'm seeing an expected average delta in the south of perhaps 1 or 2 C, and in the north of Scotland, up to 4C.

I found author's actual paper [1] but that doesn't mention rainfall either, and I can't find any estimated ranges on temperature impacts for the UK.

[1] http://ocp.ldeo.columbia.edu/res/div/ocp/gs/pubs/Seager_etal...

Re: Skies went dark: Historians pinpoint the 'worst year' ever to be alive

#120
The evidence is still iffy... but my money is on the end of the younger Dryas being even worse. Fire from the sky over a large chunk of the planet, rapid melting of the Laurentian ice sheets, rapid extreme rise of sea levels.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Younger_Dryas_impact_hypothesi...

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