US agencies call for pause in Johnson & Johnson vaccine • Hacker News Board

Re: US agencies call for pause in Johnson & Johnson vaccine

#761

Post by Exmoor » Tue, Apr 13, 2021, 8:25 PM UTC

dheera wrote: post #736

js2 wrote: post #702

The risk of dying from a blood clot after receiving the J&J vaccine is six in 6,800,000 (6.8M). The world population is 7,900,000,000 (7.9B). If everyone on the planet got the J&J vaccine tomorrow, and if it is the cause of the clots, then 6,971 people would die from the vaccine. Yesterday, Covid19 killed 8,803 people (according to worldometers). We don't want anyone to die from vaccination, and we don't fully unders…

Why is everyone worried about blood clots, and not that the J&J vaccine has a crap-tastic efficiency of 66.3%? Would you want the chef at your local takeout to be vaccinated to 66.3% efficiency? or 94%? Why was this vaccine even approved, instead of just having J&J produce the same vaccine Pfizer and Moderna are making, which would be in the best interest of the world? Is this some utterly idiotic capitalism bullshit…

The limits of mRNA vaccine manufacturing are that it's a new process and the technology and supply chain required to produce it are very hard to get right. Derek Lowe does an excellent job of debunking the simplistic "Why don't they share the design" argument here:

https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2021/02/02/my...

Re: US agencies call for pause in Johnson & Johnson vaccine

#762

Post by morpheuskafka » Tue, Apr 13, 2021, 8:25 PM UTC

dheera wrote: post #736

js2 wrote: post #702

The risk of dying from a blood clot after receiving the J&J vaccine is six in 6,800,000 (6.8M). The world population is 7,900,000,000 (7.9B). If everyone on the planet got the J&J vaccine tomorrow, and if it is the cause of the clots, then 6,971 people would die from the vaccine. Yesterday, Covid19 killed 8,803 people (according to worldometers). We don't want anyone to die from vaccination, and we don't fully unders…

Why is everyone worried about blood clots, and not that the J&J vaccine has a crap-tastic efficiency of 66.3%? Would you want the chef at your local takeout to be vaccinated to 66.3% efficiency? or 94%? Why was this vaccine even approved, instead of just having J&J produce the same vaccine Pfizer and Moderna are making, which would be in the best interest of the world? Is this some utterly idiotic capitalism bullshit…

> And then hand that formula to the rest of the world including Brazil, India, China, and other recent new COVID hotspots so that the virus doesn't boomerang back to the US in an evolved form?

Such a vaccine would also have two doses and require intense refrigeration which are the primary issues blocking it... additionally many of those jurisdictions might not accept a US vaccine. China, maybe, since they admitted their own vaccines aren't working super well. Russia doesn't have anything wrong with its vaccine but the Kremlin admitted no one is taking it, apparently because they don't believe in covid.

Re: US agencies call for pause in Johnson & Johnson vaccine

#763

Post by ineedasername » Tue, Apr 13, 2021, 8:31 PM UTC

bluGill wrote: post #503

ineedasername wrote: post #356

6 cases doesn't seem high enough to rise above the baseline incidence rate that I would expect for a population of millions that have received the vaccine. The reported data simply doesn't explain stopping use of this vaccine. It seems like either: 1) They are overreacting based on sparse data, which will cast doubt on the validity of their actions. 2) There is information being withheld that implicates, though perha…

This vaccine is similar to the AZ one which seems to have an elevated rate over a much larger sample size. Thus a pattern here that matches patterns we expect of the AZ vaccine suggests this has the same problem even though if we take the data alone it is still within the range of normal. As such 1 is no longer correct, if we didn't have a compare these numbers are high but within expected chance. However these numbe…

I agree that 1 seems unlikely, and yet #2 just feels too close to a conspiracy theory. The only explanation for #2 that I can think of that doesn't verge into crazy land of coverups is that there may be very specific reasons to believe the vaccine is the cause, but not enough confidence in that conclusion to release the details publicly without risking the vaccination effort if it turns out the vaccine was not the issue.

It would help if details were released about the physical condition of the 6 people impacted by this. If all of them were otherwise perfectly healthy people with no risk factors for this sort of issue, then yes-- that's a bit of a smoking gun.

But where things stand right now I just don't know what to make of the issues, which is just so damn frustrating because I know it gives ample reason to anyone inclines to doubt the experts or avoid vaccination a reason to do so.

Re: US agencies call for pause in Johnson & Johnson vaccine

#764

Post by jjk166 » Tue, Apr 13, 2021, 8:31 PM UTC

thehappypm wrote: post #753

jjk166 wrote: post #331

6 cases in 7 million doses over 3 months is exactly the rate that CVST would normally be expected at. While that doesn't mean we shouldn't investigate, it does mean there is no reason to be alarmed at this time. > Cerebral venous sinus thrombosis is rare, with an estimated 3-4 cases per million annual incidence in adults. While it may occur in all age groups, it is most common in the third decade. 75% are female. [0]…

People need to accept that this is a real effect. Denying it isn't helping anyone. It's happening, it's rare, but it's happening.

If it's statistically significant, the evidence showing so will emerge quickly and we can decide at that time how the increase in risk compares to that of remaining unvaccinated.

Otherwise, there isn't a whole lot of difference between "not real" and "real but so rare as not to matter."

Re: US agencies call for pause in Johnson & Johnson vaccine

#765

Post by [deleted] » Tue, Apr 13, 2021, 8:32 PM UTC

js2 wrote: post #702

The risk of dying from a blood clot after receiving the J&J vaccine is six in 6,800,000 (6.8M). The world population is 7,900,000,000 (7.9B). If everyone on the planet got the J&J vaccine tomorrow, and if it is the cause of the clots, then 6,971 people would die from the vaccine. Yesterday, Covid19 killed 8,803 people (according to worldometers). We don't want anyone to die from vaccination, and we don't fully unders…

[deleted]

Re: US agencies call for pause in Johnson & Johnson vaccine

#766

Post by strikhedonia » Tue, Apr 13, 2021, 8:32 PM UTC

tacitusarc wrote: post #734

js2 wrote: post #702

The risk of dying from a blood clot after receiving the J&J vaccine is six in 6,800,000 (6.8M). The world population is 7,900,000,000 (7.9B). If everyone on the planet got the J&J vaccine tomorrow, and if it is the cause of the clots, then 6,971 people would die from the vaccine. Yesterday, Covid19 killed 8,803 people (according to worldometers). We don't want anyone to die from vaccination, and we don't fully unders…

6 obvious deaths that we're aware of. The risk of the vaccines is in their novelty and morbidity. An abundance of caution is required in this instance. It would be very bad to discover that there's a vanishingly small chance of blood clots within the first 3 months but a significant chance when paired with other events over the following decade.

It’s actually one obvious death we’re aware of—the other five are still alive. Though that doesn’t change the calculus much.

Re: US agencies call for pause in Johnson & Johnson vaccine

#767

Post by dheera » Tue, Apr 13, 2021, 8:34 PM UTC

kazinator wrote: post #757

savanu wrote: post #755

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The different efficacy rates of the vaccines do not directly imply anything about spreading covid. A vaccinated person can have no symptoms of covid and still be spreading (This may or may not be true). Folks are still studying how effective the vaccines are at preventing spread.

Keep in mind that a door handle is completely immune to Covid and can be spreading it.

Only for a few hours though, not 2 weeks+, and viruses don't mutate on a doorknob. Someone who got vaccine and falls in the ineffective category will likely not die but will be a spreader for a few weeks, with some nonzero probability of mutation, and that times 1/3 of the population that got the vaccine would give the virus a lot of opportunity to mutate.

Re: US agencies call for pause in Johnson & Johnson vaccine

#768

Post by wincy » Tue, Apr 13, 2021, 8:34 PM UTC

js2 wrote: post #702

The risk of dying from a blood clot after receiving the J&J vaccine is six in 6,800,000 (6.8M). The world population is 7,900,000,000 (7.9B). If everyone on the planet got the J&J vaccine tomorrow, and if it is the cause of the clots, then 6,971 people would die from the vaccine. Yesterday, Covid19 killed 8,803 people (according to worldometers). We don't want anyone to die from vaccination, and we don't fully unders…

I went to the emergency room for earth shattering headaches (no history of headaches like this) after getting the J&J vaccine last week. I mentioned I’d got the vaccine and asked if it was possible the two were linked. The doctor did everything but actually roll his eyes and thought that the headache being caused by the vaccine was ridiculous.

I bet if I went today he wouldn’t be so dismissive.

Re: US agencies call for pause in Johnson & Johnson vaccine

#769

Post by ghaff » Tue, Apr 13, 2021, 8:35 PM UTC

dheera wrote: post #758

savanu wrote: post #755

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The different efficacy rates of the vaccines do not directly imply anything about spreading covid. A vaccinated person can have no symptoms of covid and still be spreading (This may or may not be true). Folks are still studying how effective the vaccines are at preventing spread.

Okay, but until they're done studying, maybe let's just make more of the 94% vaccine using J&J's facilities?

You do realize that different manufacturing facilities are not interchangeable? They're not a rack of x86 servers.

Re: US agencies call for pause in Johnson & Johnson vaccine

#770

Post by kaczordon » Tue, Apr 13, 2021, 8:39 PM UTC

js2 wrote: post #702

The risk of dying from a blood clot after receiving the J&J vaccine is six in 6,800,000 (6.8M). The world population is 7,900,000,000 (7.9B). If everyone on the planet got the J&J vaccine tomorrow, and if it is the cause of the clots, then 6,971 people would die from the vaccine. Yesterday, Covid19 killed 8,803 people (according to worldometers). We don't want anyone to die from vaccination, and we don't fully unders…

OTOH, if this being in the news causes fewer people to get vaccinated, pausing it may be a mistake that will cause more overall deaths

This is the reason people lost trust in the medical community during COVID.