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US agencies call for pause in Johnson & Johnson vaccine

bbc.co.uk

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Re: US agencies call for pause in Johnson & Johnson vaccine

#521

Post by base698 »

Izkata wrote: post #517
base698 wrote: post #314

Earlier quoted context omitted.

50 would certainly cover all life stages of humans. I assume you could be sure with shorter. I have an aviation, biochem, and skydiving background. My rule is for aviation: "if it hasn't been out five years you're a test jumper." Humans are way more complex than airplanes. I personally wouldn't take the mRNA vaccine because of this rule. Coupled with being unable to sue or get help from the government I think people…

> I think people IN LOW RISK groups have been way too enthusiastic to sign up. About that... > In December, we asked, “What percentage of people who have been infected by the coronavirus needed to be hospitalized?” > The correct answer is not precisely known, but it is highly likely to be between 1% and 5% according to the best available estimates, and it is unlikely to be much higher or lower. We discuss the data an…

From what I can deduce using CDC data my chance of hospitalization is 0.5 to 2%. Assuming linear relationship of obesity in the population and assuming the same risk at the top of my cohort to the bottom.

Re: US agencies call for pause in Johnson & Johnson vaccine

#522

Post by CJefferson »

jonplackett wrote: post #424
jaegerpicker wrote: post #406

7 people out of 7 million dose's. That's why they stopped. My wife and I got the J&J shot on Saturday so I'm directly at risk and I'd take it everytime even if the risk was 10 times what it currently is. I've already seen a bunch of anit-vaxers referring to this in new articles this morning. So let's see, 1 in a million chance that the vaccine will make you sick (only 1 person has died so far, which is terrible but i…

I just made this website to show you how really, really small the risks are for the AstraZeneca vaccine which also has this ‘issue’. It compares the risks of dying from a blood clot after the AZ vaccine (about 1 in a million) to the risks we happily take every single day. http://whatoneinamillionmeans.com If you're not willing to take 1 in a million chances, it's gonna be pretty hard for you to get out of bed today

The one thing you miss, what is the risk of dying of COVID, as a healthy person under 30?

Re: US agencies call for pause in Johnson & Johnson vaccine

#523

Post by ceilingcorner »

cma wrote: post #518
ceilingcorner wrote: post #386

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is misleading. If you’re young and healthy, the chances of dying from COVID are basically zero. The chances of dying from a blood clot from a rushed vaccine are not. The people who died from blood clots probably would still be alive had they not taken the vaccine.

> The people who died from blood clots probably would still be alive had they not taken the vaccine. Isn't it just person (1 person), not people, at this point?

No, there are many.

Re: US agencies call for pause in Johnson & Johnson vaccine

#524

Post by kube-system »

lamontcg wrote: post #468
FunnyLookinHat wrote: post #459

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah and we only just started to roll this vaccine out - so it's fair to say that the risk will likely grow beyond that. You're right that 7 / 7,000,000 are good odds, and most people would likely take them - but it would be unwise to not give people an educated choice between vaccines if there are known risks.

> so it's fair to say that the risk will likely grow beyond that. not really. that's not how statistics work. it could grow, it could shrink.

In this case, the numerator lags the denominator.

> All six cases were in women aged between 18 and 48, with symptoms appearing six to 13 days after vaccination.

Presumably, some of the 7 million people who have gotten the vaccine did so in the prior 5-12 days. It is reasonable to expect to see more cases over the next 6-13 days from the moment we pause J&J vaccination.

Re: US agencies call for pause in Johnson & Johnson vaccine

#525

Post by rightbyte »

josephcsible wrote: post #453
FabHK wrote: post #416

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If I have my numbers approximately right, getting the J&J vaccine is a bit safer than taking a plane trip, while getting COVID is about as safe as taking a trip in the space shuttle.

Your chance of dying from COVID is heavily dependent on your age and any preexisting conditions, so any comparison that uses a single probability for everyone is totally wrong for a very large number of people.

To be fair space launches are probably quite lethal for the many in the general population.

Re: US agencies call for pause in Johnson & Johnson vaccine

#526

Post by ceilingcorner »

root_axis wrote: post #491
ceilingcorner wrote: post #386

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is misleading. If you’re young and healthy, the chances of dying from COVID are basically zero. The chances of dying from a blood clot from a rushed vaccine are not. The people who died from blood clots probably would still be alive had they not taken the vaccine.

> If you’re young and healthy, the chances of dying from COVID are basically zero Death is not the only risk factor. Covid-19 carries the risk of serious complications for those who recover, even including those who are infected but asymptomatic. https://jacksonhealth.org/persistent-pulmonary-problems-in-a...

> While the long-term consequences are still unknown

> Additional studies are required to fully understand the virus, but for now, follow-up testing is essential to understand the long-term effects of the virus.

Re: US agencies call for pause in Johnson & Johnson vaccine

#527

Post by [deleted] »

jaegerpicker wrote: post #406

7 people out of 7 million dose's. That's why they stopped. My wife and I got the J&J shot on Saturday so I'm directly at risk and I'd take it everytime even if the risk was 10 times what it currently is. I've already seen a bunch of anit-vaxers referring to this in new articles this morning. So let's see, 1 in a million chance that the vaccine will make you sick (only 1 person has died so far, which is terrible but i…

[deleted]

Re: US agencies call for pause in Johnson & Johnson vaccine

#528

Post by mikem170 »

Igelau wrote: post #382
xiphias2 wrote: post #352

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They are not alleged at this point, they are real, and we have enough data that proves it. Using a language that pretends that vaccines can't have lethal side effects is just dividing people farther. It's all about the risk-reward calculation, which is still on the vaccine's side for most people. For a 18 year girl though it may be better to wait 2 weeks more for the Moderna / Pfizer vaccine in lockdown at home than…

> They are not alleged at this point, they are real, and we have enough data that proves it. What was it? 6 cases out of 7 million doses? That doesn't even look like a correlation, let alone a side effect.

This article [0] mentions 50% more blood clots observed during vaccine trials, which at the time was characterized as a slight numerical imbalance (15 blood clots versus 10 in the placebo group, in a trial of 20k people)

The 6 cases out of 7 million would appear to be the most serious/unusual/cerebral blood clots, but that number does not include all blood clots.

I don't mean to advocate against the vaccine with these numbers, just add data. I see the 6 out of 7 million number batted around a lot and that's not a complete picture.

[0] https://www.cnn.com/2021/04/13/health/johnson-vaccine-blood-...

Re: US agencies call for pause in Johnson & Johnson vaccine

#529

Post by fastball »

throwaway8581 wrote: post #479
josephcsible wrote: post #429

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That seems like it'd be easy to fix: the government just needs to say "as soon as you're fully vaccinated, you don't need to social distance or wear a mask in public anymore". Since that isn't their position, there's basically zero incentive for young, healthy people to risk the vaccine side effects.

Young people shouldn't be getting the vaccine period. There is no reason to give every single person who will have children in the future an experimental vaccine for a virus they are at no serious risk from. The long tail risk on that is absolutely insane.

Not exactly sure what procreation has to do with anything.

Also pretty sure risk of death outweighs literally any possible long-tail risk, so still seems sensible for the young to get the vax. Also don't think the long-tail risk of an mRNA vaccine can be worse then COVID's long-tail risk.

Re: US agencies call for pause in Johnson & Johnson vaccine

#530

Post by moate »

JediWing wrote: post #512
jaegerpicker wrote: post #406

7 people out of 7 million dose's. That's why they stopped. My wife and I got the J&J shot on Saturday so I'm directly at risk and I'd take it everytime even if the risk was 10 times what it currently is. I've already seen a bunch of anit-vaxers referring to this in new articles this morning. So let's see, 1 in a million chance that the vaccine will make you sick (only 1 person has died so far, which is terrible but i…

7 people in a fairly specific demographic (women 18-38, I believe), when there are 2 other alternative vaccinations available. Do we have any data on the total number of women 18-38 who received this vaccine? It may actually be fairly low given we may have selection bias to give these vaccines to an older population. The outcome may simply be to recommend that members in this demographic avoid this particular vaccine…

6 Women aged 18-48.
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