US agencies call for pause in Johnson & Johnson vaccine • Hacker News Board

Re: US agencies call for pause in Johnson & Johnson vaccine

#471

Post by cogman10 » Tue, Apr 13, 2021, 5:01 PM UTC

dokem wrote: post #378

cogman10 wrote: post #335

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is what's been frustrating for me with world health organizations. I get the need to make sure medicine is safe and effective, and we absolutely should follow those to a T when it comes to new medicines on the market in non-emergency situations. However, that's not the case here. vaccines are well studied in general and J&J is one of the more "normally developed" vaccines on the market. After generally ensuring…

You blame the anti-vaxxers for the vaccine not being up to spec? Isn't this what they were saying the whole time?

No, I blame the anti-vaxxers for pushing the spec to be so strict that when 6 people out of 6.8 million people see a negative medical event, we pull the entire vaccine out of caution. We are pulling the vaccine because of a literally 1:1000000 chance that you might have a blood clot. Meanwhile, the risk of dying from covid is closer to 1:100 to 1:1000.

Re: US agencies call for pause in Johnson & Johnson vaccine

#472

Post by covid_throwaway » Tue, Apr 13, 2021, 5:02 PM UTC

duckfang wrote: post #460

jaegerpicker wrote: post #406

7 people out of 7 million dose's. That's why they stopped. My wife and I got the J&J shot on Saturday so I'm directly at risk and I'd take it everytime even if the risk was 10 times what it currently is. I've already seen a bunch of anit-vaxers referring to this in new articles this morning. So let's see, 1 in a million chance that the vaccine will make you sick (only 1 person has died so far, which is terrible but i…

Birth control is already severe blood clots at 1:1000 . Only affects people with uteruses. That's cool. This is 1:1000000 of a severe event, but affects men as well. HOLD THE LINE - It affects a.... Man!

According to the article, all 6 cases were in women

Re: US agencies call for pause in Johnson & Johnson vaccine

#473

Post by ceilingcorner » Tue, Apr 13, 2021, 5:02 PM UTC

javagram wrote: post #450

ceilingcorner wrote: post #386

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is misleading. If you’re young and healthy, the chances of dying from COVID are basically zero. The chances of dying from a blood clot from a rushed vaccine are not. The people who died from blood clots probably would still be alive had they not taken the vaccine.

> If you’re young and healthy, the chances of dying from COVID are basically zero. Hundreds of young and healthy people have died from Covid-19. The risk is “basically zero” but so is the current known 1 in 7 million risk of dying from this blood clotting.

Most of those cases haven't quite been "healthy."

Even then, let's assume they were. COVID is largely avoidable, if you don't mind being avoiding others. Directly getting a vaccine is not.

It's like saying X% of people riding in cars will be in accidents and die. Yeah, maybe, but that doesn't apply to you if you don't ride in a car in the first place.

Re: US agencies call for pause in Johnson & Johnson vaccine

#474

Post by vmception » Tue, Apr 13, 2021, 5:02 PM UTC

vibesngrooves wrote: post #440

jaegerpicker wrote: post #406

7 people out of 7 million dose's. That's why they stopped. My wife and I got the J&J shot on Saturday so I'm directly at risk and I'd take it everytime even if the risk was 10 times what it currently is. I've already seen a bunch of anit-vaxers referring to this in new articles this morning. So let's see, 1 in a million chance that the vaccine will make you sick (only 1 person has died so far, which is terrible but i…

This really is a sad, sobering reality. "6 cases in 6.8 million", ~0.00000089% chance of death via J&J vaccination. Extremely disheartening to see, but rather telling, where priorities lie. Politics aside, this is sheer stupidity, as you mentioned. Brace for another year as mutations continue to develop throughout the developing world while we waffle over infinitesimally minimal risk.

There are 7 other vaccines in use simultaneously across major markets. JnJ has little effect on the strategy.

Re: US agencies call for pause in Johnson & Johnson vaccine

#475

Post by kypro » Tue, Apr 13, 2021, 5:02 PM UTC

base698 wrote: post #314

splithalf wrote: post #280

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Everything in life has potential epigenetic effects! Not sure what you are trying to communicate with your comment but it sounds like you are saying people should avoid the mRNA vax but then you also say “almost certainly no long term effects.” Your thesis seems to be that 10 years is enough time to know for sure that they are safe. Why is 10 years the right amount of time? Why not 50 years or 5? In other words what’…

50 would certainly cover all life stages of humans. I assume you could be sure with shorter. I have an aviation, biochem, and skydiving background. My rule is for aviation: "if it hasn't been out five years you're a test jumper." Humans are way more complex than airplanes. I personally wouldn't take the mRNA vaccine because of this rule. Coupled with being unable to sue or get help from the government I think people…

I'd be happy to take the vaccine if I was in a higher risk group and I'll be happy to take the vaccine in a year or two, but right now I just don't think it's right decision for someone like myself.

Given my risk is very low I'm not too worried about COVID, but I am a little worried (perhaps wrongly) about the risk of finding out about some long-term side effect from these vaccines a few months down the road. I suffer from long-term side effects from another drug I took in the past, and at the time I was told there was no risk of long-term side effects and that it was safe to take. Only recently has the labeling been updated to reflect the discovery that permanent side effects can occur in some cases and for me it's too late, but I learnt my lesson to allow others to be the guinea pig for new drugs wherever possible.

It's really quite alarming how little we know about the body, espically considering the certainty of some "experts" about how extremely low the risk of adverse effects are from newly approved vaccines. I'm aware of a number of drugs which are approved and frequently perscribed which we don't even understand the mechanism of action for -- accutane, for example. Of course in this situation, we do know the mechanism of action, but it would still be wrong to assume we know the full surface area of possible side effects which could occur because our model of the human body is so basic.

I'm happy for someone to explain why I'm wrong on this. I'm obviously not an expert, just an average guy trying to assess the relative risk of two very unlikely events.

Re: US agencies call for pause in Johnson & Johnson vaccine

#476

Post by throwawaysea » Tue, Apr 13, 2021, 5:02 PM UTC

jaegerpicker wrote: post #406

7 people out of 7 million dose's. That's why they stopped. My wife and I got the J&J shot on Saturday so I'm directly at risk and I'd take it everytime even if the risk was 10 times what it currently is. I've already seen a bunch of anit-vaxers referring to this in new articles this morning. So let's see, 1 in a million chance that the vaccine will make you sick (only 1 person has died so far, which is terrible but i…

I think that's not a very charitable take on "anti-vaxers". People are against injecting something new that has not stood the test of time. We have no idea what the actual frequency of this issue is (maybe more reports will come in), or if there are other lurking side effects waiting to be observed as a pattern, or if there are long-term effects. What if news of this spurs others to make the connection with the J&J vaccine and more such cases are reported to the CDC? Or looking at the other vaccines, what if in 30 years we somehow establish a link between mRNA vaccines and cancer?

I'm sure people will be tempted to jump in here and state their case as to why certain long term effects are not possible, and why this is conspiracy theory misinformation. But that's not the point. The reality is that humans regularly fail to understand infrequent or long-term consequences of new innovations, despite the best of intentions and despite the use of the best science available at the time. This has happened repeatedly in the past - see numerous prescription drugs that were recalled, or the use of phthalates in shampoos, or asbestos, or whatever else.

In the case of J&J, consider that this is happening against a backdrop of a continuously changing story about the AstraZeneca vaccine, increasing reports of COVID vaccines affecting menstruation (https://vajenda.substack.com/p/the-covid-19-vaccine-and-mens...), and a rushed emergency use authorization process that bypasses typical methodology for approvals of vaccines. The comparison isn't between the IFR of COVID-19 and the fatality rate associated with this vaccine. It's between the IFR of COVID-19, which is known to be very low, and the unbounded potential of near-term or long-term fatality or other side effects from the vaccine.

Re: US agencies call for pause in Johnson & Johnson vaccine

#477

Post by sp332 » Tue, Apr 13, 2021, 5:03 PM UTC

hn8788 wrote: post #91

So this past year the government has been willing to let unemployment, suicides and drug overdoses jump due to isolation and loneliness caused by lockdowns, child abuse to skyrocket and mental health to plumment due to schools being kept closed, all because we needed to stop covid at any cost. Now one person dies out of almost 7 million who received the vaccine, and we need to stop administering the J&J vaccine "out…

It is not stopped. It is paused for a few days while updated training is rolled out.

Re: US agencies call for pause in Johnson & Johnson vaccine

#478

Post by atq2119 » Tue, Apr 13, 2021, 5:03 PM UTC

ridethebike wrote: post #449

jaegerpicker wrote: post #406

7 people out of 7 million dose's. That's why they stopped. My wife and I got the J&J shot on Saturday so I'm directly at risk and I'd take it everytime even if the risk was 10 times what it currently is. I've already seen a bunch of anit-vaxers referring to this in new articles this morning. So let's see, 1 in a million chance that the vaccine will make you sick (only 1 person has died so far, which is terrible but i…

I wonder if we randomly select 7 million people (without vaccine) and observe them for couple of months - how many of them will get the blood cloths

That was my first thought as well. However, both vaccines with this issue are viral vector vaccines. Might be coincidence of course, but it gives me pause.

Re: US agencies call for pause in Johnson & Johnson vaccine

#479

Post by throwaway8581 » Tue, Apr 13, 2021, 5:03 PM UTC

josephcsible wrote: post #429

fastball wrote: post #362

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah, the problem though is that we have a Tragedy of the Commons situation on our hands. There is a non-negligible portion of the population that wants to have its cake and eat it too – reduce the risk that they will suffer health consequences from COVID-19 by letting everyone else get the vaccine, but not getting the vax themselves, therefore putting their risk from vax at zero.

That seems like it'd be easy to fix: the government just needs to say "as soon as you're fully vaccinated, you don't need to social distance or wear a mask in public anymore". Since that isn't their position, there's basically zero incentive for young, healthy people to risk the vaccine side effects.

Young people shouldn't be getting the vaccine period. There is no reason to give every single person who will have children in the future an experimental vaccine for a virus they are at no serious risk from. The long tail risk on that is absolutely insane.

Re: US agencies call for pause in Johnson & Johnson vaccine

#480

Post by toast0 » Tue, Apr 13, 2021, 5:03 PM UTC

mhb wrote: post #396

toast0 wrote: post #239

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Pausing this one vaccine type to collect data and determine appropriate actions to mitigate this side effect is reasonable. This is a low probability event, and the appropriate mitigation may be to do nothing; but there may be some common factor for these patients that might indicate use of a different vaccine or maybe informing people of symptoms of blood clots and what to do if they see symptoms. The real risk here…

That's all hand-waving. Why is it reasonable to delay vaccinating people based on these events? Maybe it is, but not because your gut feel says so. What erodes confidence is the complete absence of cost/benefit discussions about virtually any decision that has been made. Including this one.

We've now got a known risk that's quantifiable, but hasn't been quantified. You can estimate the risk based on the current information, but now that it's a known risk, I would expect to have more complete information in a few weeks.

If this turns out to be about what it looks like now, unpause and go forward. If it turns out to be much more significant, all the better for having stopped; maybe restrict this vaccine to populations at higher risk of COVID or lower risk of blood clots (if that risk can be determined). Both mRNA vaccines and modified adenovirus vaccines are new types of vaccines not used before on a wide scale; pausing to get clarity on a major negative side effect is warranted.