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How People Get Rich Now

paulgraham.com

61–70 of 941 posts

Re: How People Get Rich Now

#61
post #32

I don't want to derail this too much with personal anecdotes, but I suspect you are much more likely to build wealth with the more established tech companies - and that wealth is "rich enough". Maybe I am just unlucky or unskilled, but I spent roughly 20 years working at startups or innovation labs. I was "close" to some big events where I could have made big $$ but made 0. Both at my own startup and being at early s…

Who's the tech guy in the life of Brian? As in, what part of the movie are you referring to?

Re: How People Get Rich Now

#63
While I think this is in general interesting, a couple things stand out to me:

> And there's a reason why: these are mostly companies that win by having better technology, rather than just a CEO who's really driven and good at making deals.

Really? Always? Are we sure that some companies [which are funded by giants like softbank and have names that rhyme with schmuber] don't [at least] sometimes win because of massive capital injections which allow them to subsidize consumer-facing pricing and stomp all over the competition? Having "better technology" wouldn't allow you to beat uber, you'd also need to subsidize rides for years to choke out uber on pricing. This is true for a lot of big modern companies - they can leverage their capital to crush early competition and wait till they're the only game in town to raise prices and cover their costs (or hope that economies of scale will catch up). I realize that PG isn't saying this _doesn't_ happen, just seems like he's painting a glossy "it's because meritocracy and innovation" picture over things that often have a lot more to do with simply having access to insane amounts of capital (i.e. being good at making deals)

> Of course the Gini coefficient is increasing. With more people starting more valuable companies, how could it not be?

I think this is a really deceptive statement - it kinda sounds like "more people are getting rich" when in fact fewer people are getting [even] richer. The details of _who_ is getting richer are interesting and I think well covered by this post (and I'm not arguing that), I just have a personal beef with the presentation that maybe it's somehow OK (or good?) that income inequality is getting worse because... tech?

A reframing of this story about how the combination of tech & the modern world of VC enables the ultra-wealthy to more effectively concentrate and grow their wealth (even if sometimes a startup founder gets to win the lottery and join the club) could be just as factually correct and a little less rosy.

Re: How People Get Rich Now

#64
post #39

I think there’s a different reason, companies just aren’t paying enough. Wages, even at 150-200k just really aren’t that much. 200k now is a lot less than 200k in 2010. The younger generation intuitively knows this. I don’t know anyone jockeying to climb the corporate ladder, and my social circle spans Stanford grads to no college degree at all. People are starting businesses because working for a corporation day in…

Inflation data: https://www.in2013dollars.com/us/inflation/2010?amount=1 . I don't think that a 20% difference means 200K is a lot less. It's a bit less.

[deleted]

Re: How People Get Rich Now

#65
post #42

I'm not sure what the intent of this post is. Seemingly, it's to encourage people to start a company, because it's so easy now and you can get rich (look at all these people in the top 100 that got there by starting a company!) But I'm not sure looking at the top 100 is a compelling argument. That's for the 0.0001%. How does the top 10% do? The top 25%? What about the median outcome? More than that, what are the trad…

> But I'm not sure looking at the top 100 is a compelling argument.

It seems to be very compelling. Most people spend more energy writing about, worrying about, or praising Bezos, Musk, and Gates than they do the rest of the top 0.1% richest people combined. Perhaps it's not a good argument. But it's compelling.

Re: How People Get Rich Now

#66
I don’t think I can take seriously the claim that people did not start companies in mid-20th century America, because of high taxes. I’m thinking of the whole Fairchild diaspora, Intel, Microsoft, Apple just in the computer industry, then there’s Wal-mart etc. all of these predate Reagan’s low-tax philosophy.

Re: How People Get Rich Now

#67
post #39

I think there’s a different reason, companies just aren’t paying enough. Wages, even at 150-200k just really aren’t that much. 200k now is a lot less than 200k in 2010. The younger generation intuitively knows this. I don’t know anyone jockeying to climb the corporate ladder, and my social circle spans Stanford grads to no college degree at all. People are starting businesses because working for a corporation day in…

Inflation data: https://www.in2013dollars.com/us/inflation/2010?amount=1 . I don't think that a 20% difference means 200K is a lot less. It's a bit less.

I don’t trust any inflation numbers. Financial asset inflation is out of control

Re: How People Get Rich Now

#68

Im curious, if we wait, say, 40 more years, I wonder will the richest people again be heirs (of today's current crop of tech billionaires)? If so, what does that mean for Paul's hypothesis?

undoubtedly, unless we have a new revolution like the personal computing/internet revolution that makes the pie bigger and accessible for people, and those types of revolution are things that you can hardly for-see.

The internet isn't a revolution, but a meta-revolution. It seems to me we will be harvesting the value of the second order revolutions from the Internet for a long time.

Re: How People Get Rich Now

#69
post #11

I don't think that the top 100 richest people is a good dataset. You can be extremely rich without making it anywhere near that list. While a lot of those top 100 people made it to that list by starting companies, I'm curious how many of them did so by leveraging family or inherited wealth.

> I'm curious how many of them did so by leveraging family or inherited wealth.

Its interesting to note that many of our own prized meritocratic examples owe their parents in terms of intellectual inheritance or first-round funding.

I believe Trump's father (a billionaire in 2018 dollars) was given start up capital by his father who owned a diner in gold territory during the rush. Elon Musk I believe also was the beneficiary of a small amount of investment from his parents.

The question is whether or not that "counts". It certainly counts when discussing disparate outcomes between demographic groups when discussing success/failure with broad brush strokes but probably doesn't when comparing aristocratic-like inheritances to startup wealth.

Re: How People Get Rich Now

#70
post #42

I'm not sure what the intent of this post is. Seemingly, it's to encourage people to start a company, because it's so easy now and you can get rich (look at all these people in the top 100 that got there by starting a company!) But I'm not sure looking at the top 100 is a compelling argument. That's for the 0.0001%. How does the top 10% do? The top 25%? What about the median outcome? More than that, what are the trad…

The top lotto winners gained their wealth from winning the lottery!
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