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Scientists who say the lab-leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 shouldn't be ruled out

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361–370 of 662 posts

Re: Scientists who say the lab-leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 shouldn't be ruled out

#361

Judging by the comments in this thread, it seems a lot of people are still unaware that: 1. Gain of function research primarily uses samples collected from nature, and seeks to stimulate their evolution in as natural a way as possible to learn how viruses evolve in nature. If such viruses were to escape the lab, they would appear "natural" 2. It's not xenophobic for people from the US to suggest the possibility of a…

I feel like people are doing a poor job distinguishing between "engineered" and "leaked." There is, from my understanding, reasonable evidence to conclude the virus was not engineered from the perspective of "we took genes from one virus and moved them to this virus," but there's no evidence disproving the idea that it was the result of gain of function research. My personal feeling is that these statements are true:…

And to a fair extent these questions are academic - say that it wasn't a lab leak and came from a natural reservoir. That doesn't change the fact that BSL-4 lab protections aren't perfect and there will be leaks of a similar magnitude of risk in the future.

The biological research community are obviously playing with some much riskier toys than everyone else.

Re: Scientists who say the lab-leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 shouldn't be ruled out

#362

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's interesting, because of the scientists featured in the above article... None of them are virologists. Petrovsky, for instance, if you look at his google scholar, hasn't published a paper in a virology journal in the 10 years that I looked. He's published in some predatory journals, ones I wouldn't be caught dead publishing in. He's also gotten /close/, I guess, by publishing about tuberculosis. But it really i…

I'm going to start off by pointing out that again, almost your entire argument is an appeal to authority, which is not a scientific argument. Oh and add gatekeeping to the list as well, in support of your appeal to authority. As an aside to anyone that isn't a professional scientist reading this thread: I'd just like to issue a caution that any time some supposed "expert" is telling you that you should listen to them…

....I presented a lot of extremely detailed arguments backed up by references in my original post and you just dismissed them by saying they "cherry pick" data.

How is that true about anything I said regarding S/NS ratios, molecular clock analysis, the mosaic nature of the virus, the presence of O-linked glycans, the promiscuity and non-species specific nature of the spike protein, etc.

You conducted the mother of all handwaves and then asked me to present "actual" arguments. What? You never even approached the detail of any arguments I have made thus far.

I'm not going to make new ones until you provide some actual factual responses to the ones I've already made, thanks.

In case you don't want to find the link, here it is again: https://www.reddit.com/r/science/comments/gk6y95/covid19_did...

Re: Scientists who say the lab-leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 shouldn't be ruled out

#363

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Thank you for the detailed response. As a layperson, these specifics are over my head. Assuming everything you say is true, that still would not rule out a lab leak of a virus collected from nature, would it? >You can't do it in the time we've been able to handle viruses like this or modify them in the ways we can. You'd have needed to start a few decades ago, have tools that we've only just invented, and a huge numb…

Yes, a lab leak of a virus collected from nature is the most plausible of these lab theories. But the epidemiological evidence points to covid-19 originating outside wuhan entirely, that's why I find that theory less likely, among other reasons. See here: https://www.reddit.com/r/science/comments/gk6y95/-/fqpcfs2 Also if they had collected it in nature, it would have been in their freezers, or likely that people invo…

> covid-19 originating outside wuhan entirely,

Is this the main stream opinion now? Can you provide a link?

Or is this just your personal opinion?

Re: Scientists who say the lab-leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 shouldn't be ruled out

#364

> The virus does have an inexplicable feature: a so-called “furin cleavage site” in the spike protein that helps SARS-CoV-2 pry its way into human cells. While such sites are present in some coronaviruses, they haven’t been found in any of SARS-CoV-2’s closest known relatives. This is false. First of all it should be stated clearer that there has been parallel evolution across several branches of coronaviruses which…

I have to nitpick. I don't believe there's evolutionary pressure to evolve this. Evolution is (going to piss some people off) almost entirely random. There may be purifying selection but that has an entirely different set of properties than the idea of Lamarckian evolution.

Edit: Perhaps to clarify, what I'm trying to say is that evolution does not have foresight. And this is not my opinion, but merely that of Eugene Koonin, and I'm just repeating it.

Re: Scientists who say the lab-leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 shouldn't be ruled out

#365

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The fact that this particular theory reaches the front page of hacker news every week, despite zero evidence besides the existence of a lab.. hey, we're just asking questions, here, right? Frankly, it would be irresponsible NOT to provacatively suggest this thing we have no evidence of, repeatedly.

Roll a die representing all possible human-bat virus interactions in the world. How many of those rolls land next door to a lab researching these?

Hi there's actually quite a bit of reason to believe the zoonotic transmission didn't actually happen in Wuhan, based on the available genetic and epidemiological evidence.

See here: https://www.reddit.com/r/science/comments/gk6y95/covid19_did...

Re: Scientists who say the lab-leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 shouldn't be ruled out

#366

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>I can say the vast majority of us are not qualified to answer the question either way though. It's also worth noting that even the leading experts can get these things wrong, as was the case with the Sverdlovsk lab leak. Soviet authorities covered it up by blaming local meat markets, and leading US experts concurred with them, only to reverse their conclusion 6 years later. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sverdlovsk…

It’s worth noting that in both the Sverdlov case and in this one, world scientists are only being given access to the situation in an extremely controlled fashion. A primary reason we can’t say more on what happened in this case is the CCP’s tight control over access that could help clarify the situation. Which will always look suspicious, whether it was actually a completely natural virus or not.

If it looks like a coverup, Occam says it is a coverup.

The Chinese authorities are not stupid. They know how bad it looks to not allow investigation. Which means they think the result of a free investigation would look even worse.

Re: Scientists who say the lab-leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 shouldn't be ruled out

#367

Earlier quoted context omitted.

To think that China couldn't or wouldn't carefully control this situation and what information is available to external parties is being credulous to the point of this sounding like propaganda. They did everything they could to downplay the severity of the issue for months while they had people in hazmat suits trying to decon Wuhan.

Why didn't they do the same for the SARS-CoV-1 leaks that happened in Beijing over a decade ago, then?

Is everyone forgetting china tried to sweep that under the rug initially?

Re: Scientists who say the lab-leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 shouldn't be ruled out

#368

Judging by the comments in this thread, it seems a lot of people are still unaware that: 1. Gain of function research primarily uses samples collected from nature, and seeks to stimulate their evolution in as natural a way as possible to learn how viruses evolve in nature. If such viruses were to escape the lab, they would appear "natural" 2. It's not xenophobic for people from the US to suggest the possibility of a…

> It's not xenophobic for people from the US to suggest the possibility of a lab leak, because the US was itself funding gain of function research

What an odd way of thinking. So if there actually was a lab leak, and the US wasn't doing this research we couldn't investigate it?

Re: Scientists who say the lab-leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 shouldn't be ruled out

#369

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm going to start off by pointing out that again, almost your entire argument is an appeal to authority, which is not a scientific argument. Oh and add gatekeeping to the list as well, in support of your appeal to authority. As an aside to anyone that isn't a professional scientist reading this thread: I'd just like to issue a caution that any time some supposed "expert" is telling you that you should listen to them…

....I presented a lot of extremely detailed arguments backed up by references in my original post and you just dismissed them by saying they "cherry pick" data. How is that true about anything I said regarding S/NS ratios, molecular clock analysis, the mosaic nature of the virus, the presence of O-linked glycans, the promiscuity and non-species specific nature of the spike protein, etc. You conducted the mother of al…

Your arguments are not arranged in any sort of logical way against the hypothesis I discussed which set this whole chain off. I examined the one that you claimed refuted it, and failed to see how it applied. If you apply it to my statement, we could actually discuss it, but until you do that I'm lost by what you're supposedly proving with it.

>I'm not going to make new ones until you provide some actual factual responses to the ones I've already made, thanks.

Considering I started the comment chain by offering a comment about biology, that you then derailed with some link to a reddit post that I fail to see how it applied, and then insinuated I'm not "a real virologist" (by the way great job just sidestepping my rebuttall to that) I'm a bit confused at this statement. If you're interested in the scientific discussion, you're welcome to have that discussion. So far all you've done is linked to a reddit post and listed some science terms, but failed to explain how any of that refutes my initial statement.

I'm kind of an idiot. Please, explain how CRISPR/Cas9 leaving off target mutation effects rules out that CoV 2 could have been genetically altered by humans in a lab. Please explain how having a bunch of Snps compared to its closest known neighbor somehow rules out that a 4 amino acid insertion was man made. Because I'm not making those connections, but then again, I'm apparently not a virologist.

I made statements. You claim to have refuted them (although 90% of your text has been questioning the credentials of others). I fail to see how you have refuted them. Maybe it's just over my head.

Edit: To get more specific:

2.1.1) You claim the virus is mosaic. True. What is not true is the conclusion you draw from that. Being mosaic does not mean that the virus isn't altered by humans. Take for instance, the furin site, which is a multiple-amino acid insertion, with a close match to, unless I'm mixing up stories, a pangolin. That hardly seems mosaic. So here's a scenario that explains that point away:

-The virus that was altered in the lab with GoF research is not derived exactly from the published RATG-13 genome. It is from a different isolate or extraction, and therefore contains a huge amount of SNPs and other mutations, something that RNA viruses can accomplish in extremely short amount of times (which we obviously both know). This could be the difference between sampling weeks apart.

And, the mosaicity (word?) of the virus does not adequately explain the furin site insertion.

2.2.1) Again, explains the mutations, not the insertion

2.2.2) Not sure what point you're making here, or how it applies to any of mine. Obviously it looks like a bat virus, probably because it is a bat virus. Still doesn't rule out the insertion of a furin site.

2.2.3) No one is suggesting that CRISPR-Cas9 was used to make the 1200 SNPs and other mutations across the genome. Obviously those could be natural, while the furin site insertion could have been done by people. Also, there are other ways to introduce mutations and insertions into RNA and DNA. Perhaps you've heard of PCR and infectious clones?

2.3) You're making a critical assumption that what was being tested and studied was a virus intended to hurt humans. (You also hilariously admit that it is the most effective it probably could be in the earlier sentence, but I'm not sure if you realize this). My hypothesis stated in my opening comment is not suggesting that.

I'm not suggesting someone took RATG-13, made 1200 SNPs and an insertion, all using CRISPR-Cas9, to design a virus to wipe out the human race.

Let me restate my hypothesis:

Someone was working in a lab, added a furin site to an ordinary coronavirus that didn't infect some type of organism, to see if it suddenly could. And guess what, it could. And oh no, it accidentally got out.

Nothing in your post refutes that in any way whatsoever. Your post is so far off in the weeds (suggesting that someone engineered 1200 SNPs into the virus, why on earth would they do that?) or that I am suggesting it was designed to be lethal to humans (I'm not) or that it's bad at being a virus because it's not lethal (which makes it a phenomenal virus) or that it's a terrible virus to study because the spike protein is promiscuous thanks to its furin site (which makes it good at jumping species which is a great reason to study that promiscuity).

Your argument flat out does not apply to my hypothesis, which is why I assume you have wasted most of your breath attacking the credentials of the people criticizing it.

Re: Scientists who say the lab-leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 shouldn't be ruled out

#370

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> and a huge number of willing test subjects Who said the test subjects have to be willing? That's never stopped our government before.

Okay they at least need to stay quiet, sit in their warehouse of cages, and no journalists need to find out about it. And there can't be any leaks from anyone involved suddenly gaining a deathbed conscience. The conspiracy becomes so immense it's absurd the many thousands of people who would have to keep quiet.

> The conspiracy becomes so immense it's absurd the many thousands of people who would have to keep quiet.

This really indicates you have idea about China. The CCP can easily make millions and tens of millions not only quiet, but enthusiastically deny what happened to them.

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