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Scientists who say the lab-leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 shouldn't be ruled out

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341–350 of 662 posts

Re: Scientists who say the lab-leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 shouldn't be ruled out

#341

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Firstly it is "Dunning-Kruger". Secondly you are engaging in an argument from "authority" without evidence which is often fallacious and always disingenuous.

I'm typing on a phone keyboard so forgive my typo. And I linked to a literal mountain of evidence describing both my credentials on this topic and then an extremely detailed and heavily sourced set of arguments. I'm not talking out of my ass, I'm sorry it sounds that way. After you have several hundred of these discussions and they keep popping up with zero new evidence, it tends to color your attitude. Please accept…

It’s a lost battle, I understand that your colleges just don’t want to even discuss. Thanks for all then info you posted

Re: Scientists who say the lab-leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 shouldn't be ruled out

#342

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Excuse me but PRC = People's Republic of China correct? How would it be xenophobic to criticize a government? This conflation is so pervasive and toxic to the discourse. The Chinese government does bear some of the responsibility here. The Chinese people do not . At a minimum, they actively tried to cover-up an investigation into a leak and leaned on the World Health Organization in order to do so. This had two negat…

With all respect, this sounds very much like "It's not xenophobia if your fear of the foreigners is justified".

> The Chinese government does bear some of the responsibility here. The Chinese people do not.

I don't know how much clearer I can make a distinction between a people and their government in words. I do not consider myself responsible for the decisions of Dick Cheney and Obama. Nor would I consider a random Chinese person responsible for the actions of Tedros Adhanom or Xi Jinping.

I would find someone blaming a Chinese or Chinese-American person on a subway for the coronavirus misguided and wrong.

I would find someone critiquing the Chinese governments response to the virus very justifiable.

Re: Scientists who say the lab-leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 shouldn't be ruled out

#343

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> and a huge number of willing test subjects Who said the test subjects have to be willing? That's never stopped our government before.

Okay they at least need to stay quiet, sit in their warehouse of cages, and no journalists need to find out about it. And there can't be any leaks from anyone involved suddenly gaining a deathbed conscience. The conspiracy becomes so immense it's absurd the many thousands of people who would have to keep quiet.

You have absolutely no clue whatsoever about China.

Re: Scientists who say the lab-leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 shouldn't be ruled out

#344

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nope, I don't think they're evil, I think they have a track record. That's not the same thing at all. Track records can be good or bad -- in this case, it's a bad track record.

Plenty of bad track records to go around. You started off saying this wasn't about xenophobia, and sure that's a strong word, but it does seem like 'bias' would hit the mark pretty squarely.

Xenophobia is roughly defined as "dislike of or prejudice against people from other countries." Certainly a blanket dislike without any justification.

On the other hand, what I've said is (a) I have nothing against "foreigners" (b) there's a ton of circumstantial evidence and (c) China has a long track record of silencing opposition and criticism to prevent derogatory information from getting out. That's not xenophobia.

It's like if you have someone who's robbed 6 convenience stores, and your reaction is "hey I'm not sure they're a good fit for the world of cashiering." Or better yet, a 7th convenience store is robbed adjacent to the first 6 in the same exact way, and your reaction is "someone should see what Steve was up to that night." That's not bias, that's a substantiated track record.

It's inductive reasoning.

It's utterly unreasonable to call anyone who holds China's track record against them xenophobic or biased lol. They've earned that track record. When they show a different attitude they'll get treated differently.

> Plenty of bad track records to go around.

That right there is quintessential whataboutism.

Re: Scientists who say the lab-leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 shouldn't be ruled out

#345

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's also not xenophobic to suggest the possibility of a lab leak because lab leaks happen regardless of who's doing the research; even at BSL-4 facilities, mistakes are made. And also because there were two separate SARS-CoV-1 leaks/outbreaks from Chinese labs which the PRC admitted to. [1] [1] https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC403836/

The fact that this particular theory reaches the front page of hacker news every week, despite zero evidence besides the existence of a lab.. hey, we're just asking questions, here, right? Frankly, it would be irresponsible NOT to provacatively suggest this thing we have no evidence of, repeatedly.

Roll a die representing all possible human-bat virus interactions in the world.

How many of those rolls land next door to a lab researching these?

Re: Scientists who say the lab-leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 shouldn't be ruled out

#346

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I read through your post and it was incomplete and hand wavy, although that makes sense because it was written for Reddit. The bias was also obvious, and remarkably unscientific in how you approached the "problems" in a deterministic manner. You cherry picked examples (for instance, saying we can detect Cas9 mutations) that make no conclusive point (for example, there are a variety of ways to add a furin site to a ge…

That's interesting, because of the scientists featured in the above article... None of them are virologists. Petrovsky, for instance, if you look at his google scholar, hasn't published a paper in a virology journal in the 10 years that I looked. He's published in some predatory journals, ones I wouldn't be caught dead publishing in. He's also gotten /close/, I guess, by publishing about tuberculosis. But it really i…

I'm going to start off by pointing out that again, almost your entire argument is an appeal to authority, which is not a scientific argument. Oh and add gatekeeping to the list as well, in support of your appeal to authority.

As an aside to anyone that isn't a professional scientist reading this thread: I'd just like to issue a caution that any time some supposed "expert" is telling you that you should listen to them because of their credentials, and not the merit of their argument, you should promptly ignore them. Extra points if they tell you that the argument is too complex for you to understand. If they can't explain it to a highschooler, they don't understand it either.

>I have no reason to believe you're a virologist with any training other than your word, but that isn't actually all that important to my argument.

Actually, that's pretty much your entire argument. I'd rather not tie my HN identity to my real identity, as it's not unique to HN but all of my online life. All of my published work, with the exception of a single 1st author and a single 2nd author paper about CRISPR/Cas, is about viruses.

Here are some micrographs of viruses I work with that I took, today:

https://imgur.com/a/uDG51cN

Feel free to reverse image search them or whatever. Edit: removed reference to specific lab for sake of anonymity.

>All of that aside, the consensus among people who actually use or study dangerous viruses in biosafety labs (both those for and against gain of function research, btw)

Ah so now the goalposts have moved from "any virologist" to "people that use or study dangerous viruses in biosafety labs". Interesting.

>is that the virus likely came from a wild zoonotic crossover event.

I don't, and have never disputed that. You seem to think that the 3 points I laid out were some sort of thesis about the origins of the virus. They weren't and aren't. Just some interesting data that can be used to form a coherent hypothesis about the origins of the virus.

Similarly, none of the points in your "Reddit post of the year!" even remotely refute them. They cherry pick data.

Present an actual argument (here) and I'll engage on it based on the merits of the argument, not either of our credentials.

Re: Scientists who say the lab-leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 shouldn't be ruled out

#347

Judging by the comments in this thread, it seems a lot of people are still unaware that: 1. Gain of function research primarily uses samples collected from nature, and seeks to stimulate their evolution in as natural a way as possible to learn how viruses evolve in nature. If such viruses were to escape the lab, they would appear "natural" 2. It's not xenophobic for people from the US to suggest the possibility of a…

You are missing the important bit: The lab leak would have to be covered up by the Chinese authorities and the WHO would some how have had to be in on it. Read the section in the WHO report on COVID19 and listen to the reputable international scientist that actually went and visited the lab and interviewed the people who worked there. https://www.who.int/health-topics/coronavirus/origins-of-the...

> You are missing the important bit: The lab leak would have to be covered up by the Chinese authorities and the WHO would some how have had to be in on it.

Is that so inconceivable? The Chinese government has historically obfuscated facts and runs one of the largest media control operations in modern history. The WHO is also an organization of questionable trustworthiness and with suspicious subservience to China[1]. But the WHO wouldn't necessarily had to have been complicit. This could've easily been covered up by Chinese authorities during the many months of blocking external researchers into the country[2]. The research in the report you linked to started in January 2021.

As for the report itself, I skimmed a few pages and noticed some issues. My understanding is limited in this area, so please correct me if I'm wrong.

0. First of all, the conflict of interest of it being reported by WHO and Chinese researchers should be a factor in judging the validity of any of its claims.

1. From the arguments in favour of the intermediate host scenario (p. 115):

   > Although the closest related viruses have been found in bats, the
   > evolutionary distance between these bat viruses and SARS-CoV-2 is estimated
   > to be several decades, suggesting a missing link (either a missing progenitor
   > virus, or evolution of a progenitor virus in an intermediate host).

Why would this suggest a missing link? Couldn't gain of function research accelerate the mutations of the virus to make it seem far distant genetically from the ones found in bats?

2. From the arguments against the intermediate host scenario (p. 116):

   > There was no genetic or serological evidence for SARS-CoV-2 in a wide
   > range of domestic and wild animals tested to date.

And immediately after:

   > Screening of farmed wildlife was limited but did not provide conclusive
   > evidence for the existence of circulation.

So only major livestock species were screened, and wildlife screening was "limited", yet it concludes that there was no evidence. This scenario is "likely to very likely" based on a faulty missing link argument and dismissing the point that the research was limited.

3. From the arguments against the laboratory incident scenario (p. 119):

   > There is no record of viruses closely related to SARS-CoV-2 in any
   > laboratory before December 2019, or genomes that in combination could
   > provide a SARS-CoV-2 genome.

"There is no record" doesn't exclude the possibility of records being deleted before January 2021.

The rest of the arguments that all labs complied with high safety standards, with no reports of illnesses or disruption are also coming from Chinese authorities, and should be taken with a grain of salt. Yet this is enough to consider this scenario "extremely unlikely".

4. China is praised multiple times for its "near-elimination of SARS-CoV-2", but the official data is comically suspicious[3]. A total of 4,851 deaths in a country of 1.4 billion people. That week of April 13, 2020 was rough.

Apologies if I sound inflammatory and conspiratorial, my disinformation senses are tingling.

Ugh and apologies for the formatting. HN please adopt Markdown.

[1]: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UlCYFh8U2xM

[2]: https://edition.cnn.com/2021/01/05/china/china-blocks-who-te...

[3]: https://covid19.who.int/region/wpro/country/cn

Re: Scientists who say the lab-leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 shouldn't be ruled out

#348

Judging by the comments in this thread, it seems a lot of people are still unaware that: 1. Gain of function research primarily uses samples collected from nature, and seeks to stimulate their evolution in as natural a way as possible to learn how viruses evolve in nature. If such viruses were to escape the lab, they would appear "natural" 2. It's not xenophobic for people from the US to suggest the possibility of a…

We're seeing this reaction because of the bi-partisan view of the world which is so widespread in the USA.

These days there is more interesting data in what is considered kosher on mainstream media and what is labelled a conspiracy theory, than the information itself.

Re: Scientists who say the lab-leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 shouldn't be ruled out

#349
post #287

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The fact that you state that your article won a "best of r/science 2020" award is a bit like stating you came in first at the special olympics.

This is frankly an ignorant comment. Many of the best Special Olympic athletes would absolutely thrash your average in shape adult. Many of the men in their respective disability category for the 100m dash are sub 11-second, putting them in or near world class athlete times. And while those aren't Usain Bolt times, and not every category of Special Olympic athlete is equal, your average athletic male would be lucky t…

If anything you are fueling his argument. /r/science actually has a pretty high bar for submissions and is heavily moderated. In addition, you must directly link to published peer reviewed research. It's not the traditional subreddit that you are used to when you think of "Reddit". It's not quite the major leagues but has A LOT of quality posts because of the rules and moderation.

Re: Scientists who say the lab-leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 shouldn't be ruled out

#350

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> That SARS-COV-2 was cooked up in a lab This is a straw man argument. No one is seriously claiming that this is a "cooked up" (artificially created) virus. It could be a natural virus that escaped the lab.

Hi, I actually wrote a direct response to this idea in my original post. https://drive.google.com/file/d/1vRbACWf90iBC35xNOwlI5bWcUq0... (Footnote 1) Also, you can literally look around on this exact post and find people who believe that this virus was cooked up in a lab. There were also a lot of people on my original post who believed that. As is often the case: never underestimate the intellectual overconfidence of…

By the way, welcome to HN commments, as I note your account is five hours old.

And here is fresh evidence that labs in Wuhan have worked on unpublished coronaviruses:

https://arxiv.org/abs/2104.01533

The above findings are replicable by any bioinformatician operating on published sources.

This preprint was reviewed by one of the authors of the Human Genome Project’s landmark 2001 paper having served as an HGP sequencing team leader at the Whitehead Institute:

https://twitter.com/kevin_mckernan/status/137939900576396083...

The findings critically undermine Western zoonotic scientists’ (Daszak of the WHO-convened study particularly) claim that they knew what viruses WIV researchers were working on.

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