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Scientists who say the lab-leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 shouldn't be ruled out

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Re: Scientists who say the lab-leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 shouldn't be ruled out

#231

Post by axiosgunnar »

endisneigh wrote: post #42

Every time this comes I ask - "so what?" So again, I ask - even if it's true, so what? It's impossible to conclusively prove, and even if proven what exactly is proven? That an accident occurred? OK, so what? The article attempts to answer this: > The vitriol also obscures a broader imperative, Relman says, which is that uncovering the virus’s origins is crucial to stopping the next pandemic. Threats from both lab ac…

The same difference it would make to try to figure out if a plane crashed because a meteorite flew into it or because the human engineers screwed up some software component - to know if we should put more scrutiny on human activity that can cause catastrophes.

Re: Scientists who say the lab-leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 shouldn't be ruled out

#232

Post by twobitshifter »

ncmncm wrote: post #215

What nobody seems willing to say out loud to a reporter is that even talking at high levels about SARS-CoV-2 having possibly escaped from the lab would very probably sabotage Chinese cooperation in finding out more about its origins, whether it did or did not in fact did escape the lab. Now it appears that whatever damage could be done was, and China did block access to key information. I haven't seen anything to ind…

They have been stone walling. The WHO was not allowed into the lab for a long period providing time for a cover up there was no agreement investigation until September 2020. They were then told to take the lab workers testimony at face value and not investigate the lab leak hypothesis any further.

Doctors have escaped and claimed that it was lab engineered

https://bgr.com/2020/09/15/coronavirus-whistleblower-wuhan-l...

Re: Scientists who say the lab-leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 shouldn't be ruled out

#233

Post by jeduehr »

phyalow wrote: post #221
jeduehr wrote: post #217

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Hi, I actually ended up responding below to point 3 in particular but I also respond to it in my original post. Very few, if any of these arguments are novel. The reason you will find extremely few people with actual credentials in the science we're discussing in these discussions is that working scientists don't have the time or will to get into these debates with people who wouldn't have the faintest idea how to ac…

Firstly it is "Dunning-Kruger". Secondly you are engaging in an argument from "authority" without evidence which is often fallacious and always disingenuous.

I'm typing on a phone keyboard so forgive my typo.

And I linked to a literal mountain of evidence describing both my credentials on this topic and then an extremely detailed and heavily sourced set of arguments.

I'm not talking out of my ass, I'm sorry it sounds that way. After you have several hundred of these discussions and they keep popping up with zero new evidence, it tends to color your attitude.

Please accept my apologies

Re: Scientists who say the lab-leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 shouldn't be ruled out

#234

Post by loveistheanswer »

jeduehr wrote: post #220
mistermann wrote: post #186

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In what way is point 3 misguided?

Everyone is citing the evidence of the SARS-CoV-1 leak as reason to believe that viruses escape labs. But you know what's interesting about that? We know about the CoV-1 leak because /the chinese scientists told us about it./ They owned up to it and told the world and the biosafety community (the people with degrees in these things) helped china become more standard and respectable and safe. And now 15 years later, w…

>But you know what's interesting about that?

>We know about the CoV-1 leak because /the chinese scientists told us about it./

Sometimes humans tell the truth, sometimes humans don't.

Pointing to one group of people who told the truth, and asserting that means another group must be telling the truth is just silly.

Especially considering the former example was in regards to a small accident relative to potentially the greatest accident in human history.

I know I would be strongly inclined to lie if I was responsible for the accidental death of millions of people.

If a human being was not inclined to lie about their responsibility for greatest accident in human history, why would humans ever lie about any mistake?

Re: Scientists who say the lab-leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 shouldn't be ruled out

#235

Post by darepublic »

Buttons840 wrote: post #112
eightysixfour wrote: post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I feel like people are doing a poor job distinguishing between "engineered" and "leaked." There is, from my understanding, reasonable evidence to conclude the virus was not engineered from the perspective of "we took genes from one virus and moved them to this virus," but there's no evidence disproving the idea that it was the result of gain of function research. My personal feeling is that these statements are true:…

I like this presentation of evidence. Rarely do you see such a short acknowledgement that there are multiple contradictory theories, each having some evidence, and making no attempt to pick which theory is correct. Sometimes its wrong to present "both sides" like that. Like pretending the evidence against the moon landings is equal to the evidence for the moon landings. But if you're going to be wrong, this is probab…

You can present evidence for and against moon landing being a hoax and if done properly the delusional theory among them (hoax) should be really clear. Presenting the evidence as plainly as possible should be elucidating not misleading

Re: Scientists who say the lab-leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 shouldn't be ruled out

#236

Post by jeduehr »

loveistheanswer wrote: post #222
jeduehr wrote: post #164

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Hi, I have a PhD in virology focused on emerging viruses, and a few months back I wrote a very lengthy and involved piece full of sources. And in there, I describe exactly how wrong your point 1 is. And how misguided your point 3 is. The post also won a "best of r/science 2020" award! You can find it here: https://www.reddit.com/r/science/comments/gk6y95/covid19_did...

Which part of #1 is false? 1.1 Gain of function research primarily uses samples collected from nature 1.2 and seeks to stimulate their evolution in as natural a way as possible to learn how viruses evolve in nature. 1.3 If such viruses were to escape the lab, they would appear "natural"

1.3. you cannot take any virus known in nature (like Ratg-13 for example) and "cook" it for long enough or in any specific way to make it look like SARS-CoV-2.

You can't do it in the time we've been able to handle viruses like this or modify them in the ways we can. You'd have needed to start a few decades ago, have tools that we've only just invented, and a huge number of willing test subjects.

I cover this in extreme detail in the post I linked under Q2 and Q3.

https://www.reddit.com/r/science/comments/gk6y95/-/fqpbt6o

https://www.reddit.com/r/science/comments/gk6y95/-/fqpc7c8

One of the most compelling pieces of evidence is the synonymous/nonsynonomous ratio of the genome and it's mosaic mutations.

That's not something you can just cook up over night, it takes many millions of viral generations which require A) diverse hosts (like you find in a natural ecosystem), B) many millions of hosts, like you find in nature, and C) decades of time.

The chinese virology labs don't have the resources, time, or space to do something like that. And maybe it would be kind of possible today with CRISPR and many thousands of oligonucleotides printed off of a desktop printer, but that technology hasn't existed for more than a few years. The timelines just don't add up.

Re: Scientists who say the lab-leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 shouldn't be ruled out

#237

Post by gfodor »

dang wrote: post #197
gfodor wrote: post #65

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Your argument is clearly being made in bad faith because you are creating a strawman in your final point. The claim is not that the virus was one that was engineered and deliberately dropped by a despotic government. Given that you don't have a basic understanding of the good faith hypotheses being promoted, I'll have to assume you are at best ignorant at worst a state actor. edit: lol at getting flagged for this.

Your comment was rightly flagged because you broke the site guidelines and took the thread a big step further into flamewar hell. Please don't do that. Please do review https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html and stick to the rules when posting to HN.

pg knows as well as anyone else that if someone makes an attempt to paint you into alignment with a right-wing conspiracy theory, they're probably doing it with ill intent, especially if you made no such claim.

If you want the HN guidelines to be consistent, they shouldn't demand people presume good faith when the tactics of cancel culture are wielded in threads to try to tag people with the label they are promoting right or left wing conspiracy theories, which can direct a mob in their direction if not strongly pushed back against.

Re: Scientists who say the lab-leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 shouldn't be ruled out

#238

Post by jeduehr »

axiosgunnar wrote: post #228
jeduehr wrote: post #216

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I would rather you criticize the facts of my argument than the platform it's raised on. I was under the impression HN has a certain sense of propriety in its "comment guidelines." Or do you want to stoop as low as the forums you criticize? Thanks

You can't expect him to restrict his criticism to the content of your arguments and not your person if you claim your argument must be true because you have a PhD and no time to retype your essay for us lowlifes.

I didn't say my argument must be true because I have a PhD. I said you should trust that I'm not talking out of my ass because I have a PhD.

I'd much rather you read my arguments and criticize my content.

The fact is, criticisms in these things come from all angles. I was simply preempting one type of criticism in saying I have a PhD so I have thought about this and studied it a lot.

And then directly responding to another (that reddit is full of crap) by saying the content is what's important anyway.

I'm not saying I'm right because I have a PhD. In the post I drectly say "I'd much rather you read the arguments anyway"

Re: Scientists who say the lab-leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 shouldn't be ruled out

#239

Post by jeduehr »

loveistheanswer wrote: post #234
jeduehr wrote: post #220

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Everyone is citing the evidence of the SARS-CoV-1 leak as reason to believe that viruses escape labs. But you know what's interesting about that? We know about the CoV-1 leak because /the chinese scientists told us about it./ They owned up to it and told the world and the biosafety community (the people with degrees in these things) helped china become more standard and respectable and safe. And now 15 years later, w…

>But you know what's interesting about that? >We know about the CoV-1 leak because /the chinese scientists told us about it./ Sometimes humans tell the truth, sometimes humans don't. Pointing to one group of people who told the truth, and asserting that means another group must be telling the truth is just silly. Especially considering the former example was in regards to a small accident relative to potentially the…

But at the time when it was important, in both of these leak events, only extremely few people had died. Not millions.

It was far from the worst accident in human history at that point, it looked like nothing and in America lots of people thought it would never affect us at all.

That's when it came up and when Zhengli had her lab searched and checked their freezers etc.

It's also important to think about the other BSL4 labs around the world they sent tons of samples to. If they were hiding SARS-CoV-2, why wouldn't it have slipped into any of these many thousands of inter-lab samples?

Releases aren't all that common but cross-contamination within and between secure sites actually is.

Why has no one found SARS-2 in any of the samples sent out of Wuhan to Australia, Singapore, Canada, or the US?

Re: Scientists who say the lab-leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 shouldn't be ruled out

#240

Post by loveistheanswer »

throwaway4good wrote: post #138
loveistheanswer wrote: post #23

Judging by the comments in this thread, it seems a lot of people are still unaware that: 1. Gain of function research primarily uses samples collected from nature, and seeks to stimulate their evolution in as natural a way as possible to learn how viruses evolve in nature. If such viruses were to escape the lab, they would appear "natural" 2. It's not xenophobic for people from the US to suggest the possibility of a…

You are missing the important bit: The lab leak would have to be covered up by the Chinese authorities and the WHO would some how have had to be in on it. Read the section in the WHO report on COVID19 and listen to the reputable international scientist that actually went and visited the lab and interviewed the people who worked there. https://www.who.int/health-topics/coronavirus/origins-of-the...

>The lab leak would have to be covered up by the Chinese authorities and the WHO would some how have had to be in on it.

Indeed. There's another important bit that you seem to be missing.

Did you know that Peter Daszak, one of the "reputable international scientists" you speak of who helped investigate and author that report was himself the project lead for the US funded gain of function research at the WIV?

Who would be more inclined or in a better position to cover that up than him?

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