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Scientists who say the lab-leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 shouldn't be ruled out

technologyreview.com

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Re: Scientists who say the lab-leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 shouldn't be ruled out

#181
post #142

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It's not xenophobic for people from the US.... While racism and xenophobia is real, it has been and is being used very effectively, especially by China but others too, to deflect/blunt genuine criticisms and claims. Just as an amusing example, we talk openly about UK variant, SA variant, Brazil variant - but never talk about original as Wuhan variant - it is simply coronavirus.

It's cuts both ways. Some of the UK Politicians happily throwing around "China/Wuhan virus" got butt-hurt on Twitter when people called the B117 strain the "UK Variant." We shouldn't be using that terminology for variants either. While I understand that people largely use location names for the sake of convenience, it really doesn't feel good to be a person from one of those locations.

Really? Why would it bother anyone there is a strain after your city/country/continent? Seriously I can't think of one reason it would bother me. It's so much easier to NOT take things personally. It's easier, and feels better.

Re: Scientists who say the lab-leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 shouldn't be ruled out

#182
post #125
post #111

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Have you seen a easy Asian wet market in person before? If you’re comparing it to Whole Foods I’m not sure you have? The term itself is somewhat ambiguous [ https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wet_market ] in that it can cover both cases. However the style common in many places in China (and many other areas in east Asia) is one where there is no refrigeration or adequate sanitation. To avoid spoilage, animals are brough…

To be clear, I didn't mean to compare a butcher shop to a Whole Foods, but rather to point out that not all food markets are live animal markets, and that blanket statements like "China does X" can gloss over the fact that every country has nuances. Your link suggests that the primary factor of disease transmission in live animal markets is the exoticness of the slaughtered animals. It certainly makes sense to make a…

Definitely a valid point - there is a huge variety in what it looks like on the ground. Your other point re: availability, cost, etc is also right on point and part of what I was trying to cover.

The variety angle is because 1) the more factors you can roll the dice on at any given moment, the more likely you can come up ‘winning’ with a magically terrible combo through mutation. That ocelot flu mutate to something that could infect bats? Groovy. No bats though, so doesn’t go anywhere. If you have bats though.....

2) Many animal viruses can be low or no impact in a species, and some can infect others to different effects. This gives a given virus more chances to roll the dice and get the ‘magic’ combo without killing itself off by killing the host. The more other species it gets exposed to; the better.

3) some species have elements more common with humans than others. If a virus gets mostly infectious in one host, adapting in another environment can get it closer to dangerous to humans.

Also, if you live in an area without solid electricity or reliable refrigerated trucks - what else are you supposed to do? If you grew up in one of those areas, why bother with the more expensive option if you’re used to this (or poor and don’t have a choice).

A lot of our simplification in diet now is due to the ability to choose higher grade options coupled with strict government regulations on how food sold to the public can be sourced and the conditions it can be ‘made’ in. It used to be (several generations ago now), wild hunted deer, pidgeons, squirrel, a side of pork from your neighbor, etc. were common parts of daily food intake, and you HAD to cook your food or you wouldn’t go a week without something really nasty happening to you. There are many parts of the county that still do this, though usually more out of convenience than necessity.

Now you can pick from animals raised for purpose, with supply chains inspected and complying with a books worth of regulations. In many cases, you could go years without getting sick if you didn’t cook your food (don’t try this, it’s still a dumb idea).

It’s easy to point fingers, but if you haven’t seen it and lived in the environment, you can’t just change it without a lot of other things happening first or very nasty side effects (starvation, nutritional issues, etc).

Re: Scientists who say the lab-leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 shouldn't be ruled out

#183

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Occam's Razor indeed. The lab in Wuhan was studying bats and coronaviruses. Animal transmission is completely consistent with a lab leak, especially given that the virus in question is transmissible before symptoms. The wet market in Wuhan was not selling bats.

Actually occam's razor would say that the many many many more instances of bat-human contact throughout the Chinese countryside are likely responsible, not a lab leak. Did you know that people use Bat Guano (literally bat shit) eyedrops to cure visual ailments in rural china? Among other risky practices. Bat guano is often handled with bare hands and used to fertilize fields without proper sanitary practices. The man…

And despite the tens of thousands of people rubbing bat turds in their eyes the first cases come from people living in the middle of a massive city.

I just find it incredibly suspicious that the massive city with a BSL4 lab doing research into bat viruses is where a bat virus first turns up.

Re: Scientists who say the lab-leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 shouldn't be ruled out

#184

Judging by the comments in this thread, it seems a lot of people are still unaware that: 1. Gain of function research primarily uses samples collected from nature, and seeks to stimulate their evolution in as natural a way as possible to learn how viruses evolve in nature. If such viruses were to escape the lab, they would appear "natural" 2. It's not xenophobic for people from the US to suggest the possibility of a…

Hi, I have a PhD in virology focused on emerging viruses, and a few months back I wrote a very lengthy and involved piece full of sources. And in there, I describe exactly how wrong your point 1 is. And how misguided your point 3 is. The post also won a "best of r/science 2020" award! You can find it here: https://www.reddit.com/r/science/comments/gk6y95/covid19_did...

I'm sorry man, but wouldn't you be able to just reply directly if you feel inclined to disagree with the parent. I'm not saying HN is entitled to your opinion but it feels a little lazy and disrespectful to the parent to say "you're wrong" then drop a link off site to a massive general summary of the situation in order to respond to a few specific points. Especially since point 3 has a source from a decently reputable news site with reputable sources.

Re: Scientists who say the lab-leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 shouldn't be ruled out

#185
post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> we don't have a single human case documented before those in Wuhan The disease spread all over the world before people discovered the first cases, so it's not very surprising if previous cases on a less developed area than Wuhan were ignored.

Well, sure, but my point is that now that people are suspecting it was the lab, we ought to expect China to be digging furiously for evidence of an earlier case. At least so far, I haven't heard of any such evidence.

Willful ignorance is the first posture I would expect from the CCP - that would be the specific avoidance of gathering evidence that would be embarrassing if found to exist.

The second posture I would expect (if the first posture was not takwn) is that if they did seek and find evidence of particularly embarassing variety, they would actively stonewall access to awareness of that evidence and do everything they could to suppress that evidence. The statement,

>we ought to expect China to be digging furiously for evidence of an earlier case

is prima facie either incorrect or irrelevant to whether your ever becoming aware such evidence exists.

China does not possess Western democratic institutions, (however flawed as even those might be), to achieve accountability. To wit, over here on the Western side of things, it’s going to be hard enough getting NIH to examine whether NIH funded this work in contravention of US gov mandates not to (see HHS Potential Pandemic Pathogen Care and Oversight (P3CO) Framework, 2017).

Re: Scientists who say the lab-leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 shouldn't be ruled out

#186

Judging by the comments in this thread, it seems a lot of people are still unaware that: 1. Gain of function research primarily uses samples collected from nature, and seeks to stimulate their evolution in as natural a way as possible to learn how viruses evolve in nature. If such viruses were to escape the lab, they would appear "natural" 2. It's not xenophobic for people from the US to suggest the possibility of a…

Hi, I have a PhD in virology focused on emerging viruses, and a few months back I wrote a very lengthy and involved piece full of sources. And in there, I describe exactly how wrong your point 1 is. And how misguided your point 3 is. The post also won a "best of r/science 2020" award! You can find it here: https://www.reddit.com/r/science/comments/gk6y95/covid19_did...

In what way is point 3 misguided?

Re: Scientists who say the lab-leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 shouldn't be ruled out

#187

Almost no theories can be "ruled out" in this space. Viruses evolve in crazy and essentially unobservable ways. Nonetheless, we know there was a close relative documented in bats on the same continent within a comparable timeframe. The clearly obvious hypothesis is that animal transmission was the vector, for the simple reason that this is the way every single other pandemic, human or otherwise, has happened. There i…

>for the simple reason that this is the way every single other pandemic, human or otherwise, has happened

prima facie false.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/1977_Russian_flu#Virology

“ it is widely believed that the virus was leaked to the public in a laboratory accident (may have been kept frozen in some laboratory beforehand).[4][5][10][11][12][13][17][19”

And on top of that, the original SARS leaked from Chinese, Taiwanese, and Singapore labs a minimum of 4 times.

So parent’s cited statement is false and does not apply.

Re: Scientists who say the lab-leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 shouldn't be ruled out

#189
post #111

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Have you seen a easy Asian wet market in person before? If you’re comparing it to Whole Foods I’m not sure you have? The term itself is somewhat ambiguous [ https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wet_market ] in that it can cover both cases. However the style common in many places in China (and many other areas in east Asia) is one where there is no refrigeration or adequate sanitation. To avoid spoilage, animals are brough…

>Have you seen a easy Asian wet market in person before? If you’re comparing it to Whole Foods I’m not sure you have? Have you seen one in the last decade? It's changed dramatically, and ranges from an open-air grocery store to yes something more depressing like what is in that wiki article. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=whbyuy2nHBg

That is great to see, though for instance half that video would have flagged a US health inspector. Much cleaner than what I saw in Vietnam, Malaysia, or less high end areas of Hong Kong, or friends in Beijing or Fujian were used to when they lived in China. I can’t be sure how serious to take Foxnews in this regard, since you can pick and choose a lot of course.

Cities have been improving, and I don’t doubt Covid is helping. SARS seemed to help a lot in Singapore.

The comparison to Whole Foods with consistent refridgeration, regular clearing, limited supplies, regular health inspections still seems unlikely anywhere outside of the major metros.

Re: Scientists who say the lab-leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 shouldn't be ruled out

#190
I'm going to jump to the next step... So what?

Does it really matter where the virus emerged from? What changes would we make if it came from bats by nature's own doing? Or of it came from wet markets? Or if it leaked from a research lab?

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