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“I’ll Finish It This Week” and Other Lies

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61–70 of 121 posts

Re: “I’ll Finish It This Week” and Other Lies

#61
post #12
post #9

imo, the problem with estimates vs reality is that estimates don't include mental state. And just to clarify more about mental state, I am referring to being in the zone / flow, and individuals are healthy and experience normal stress / happiness levels. We assume and expect consistent productivity from ourselves. Anecdotally, In my 20 yrs experience, I've never heard a software engineer saying to their manager "add…

I'm not sure the metal state that you are referring to really makes a difference in terms of deadline estimation. The way I see it is that, in the grand scheme of things, if you are consistently missing the targets then either you get fired or, if the problem is systemic, the company folds. In other words, if you are not getting fired and the company isn't folding, and that neither is happening anytime soon, then eve…

The problem is deadlines in and of themselves, it quite often leads to student syndrome[1].

I've seen it from the small up to the very big project. And I also believe it's also a little self feeding, after cramming so much for the first deadline you feel you deserve a little break, right?

We need to develop far more steady working practices harnessing intrinsic motivation rather than drive through fear derived motivation of deadlines and other anathemas of healthy work ethic.

[1] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Student_syndrome

Re: “I’ll Finish It This Week” and Other Lies

#62
post #12
post #9

imo, the problem with estimates vs reality is that estimates don't include mental state. And just to clarify more about mental state, I am referring to being in the zone / flow, and individuals are healthy and experience normal stress / happiness levels. We assume and expect consistent productivity from ourselves. Anecdotally, In my 20 yrs experience, I've never heard a software engineer saying to their manager "add…

I'm not sure the metal state that you are referring to really makes a difference in terms of deadline estimation. The way I see it is that, in the grand scheme of things, if you are consistently missing the targets then either you get fired or, if the problem is systemic, the company folds. In other words, if you are not getting fired and the company isn't folding, and that neither is happening anytime soon, then eve…

> in terms of deadline estimation

In my experience, deadlines are usually arbitrary to begin with. They are the result of annual/quarterly budget allocation much more than actual customer needs. Nothing of value is lost when they are missed.

I understand the need to divvy up budgets, especially in publicly listed companies. What strikes me as nonsensical is the particular inflexibility with these budgets and their poor correlation to actual customer needs. Perhaps this is merely a symptom of the modern business world, where "the business" refers to a class of people rather than the actual business.

Re: “I’ll Finish It This Week” and Other Lies

#63

Honest question. Say you have a project. Your boss expects it can be done in two weeks. Let's say you are good at estimating your own velocity, and you estimate four weeks for that project. Do you: a) Tell your boss that you effectively suck and it will take you 4 weeks instead of 2? b) Tell your boss it will take two weeks and then blame delays when the deadline passes? or c) Tell your boss it will take two weeks, t…

I (as a manager) always get a push-back when I try to impose my timelines on my team. Though we do have a healthy conversation as a result and we end up uncovering a bunch of unknowns which I then take it to my boss to inform them. When an engineer says they need 4 weeks instead of 2 it's my responsibility as a manager to get into the details, not as a way to micro-manage but to help my team be more confident about t…

> when I try to impose my timelines on my team

As a senior developer, I don't like this sentence. If you want an estimate on a certain job, you ask your team. If you want to know what can be done in a fixed time-frame, you ask your team.

I don't take "imposed" timelines well. In such scenario's, I make it very clear who is at fault when deadlines are not met (hint: it's not me or my fellow developers). When you push back on this, I will ask who made this unrealistic estimate. Ah? You mean the people who know the least of the work made the estimate? Well, then it's normal the deadline was shit, no? Maybe next time, ask the developers, they probably are the best at making estimates of their work.

When you say "gut" feeling of developers, you probably mean the instant reaction they give when you tell them the timeline. Well, it can't be "informed" because you didn't ask them to make an estimate did you? Developers need time making an estimate. "Gut" feeling is probably your developers thinking "WTF?!?!?!?".

I always educate my managers on who makes the estimates, how much time it takes to make the estimate, and how estimates and deadlines are not the same. I hope you also have a senior developer under you who can educate you on this topic ;).

Re: “I’ll Finish It This Week” and Other Lies

#65

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I (as a manager) always get a push-back when I try to impose my timelines on my team. Though we do have a healthy conversation as a result and we end up uncovering a bunch of unknowns which I then take it to my boss to inform them. When an engineer says they need 4 weeks instead of 2 it's my responsibility as a manager to get into the details, not as a way to micro-manage but to help my team be more confident about t…

Real question: do you actually believe this to be positive more so than negative most of the time? Many people will feel resentment over what is essentially continuous doubt and having to spend time to push back that could be spent thinking about the problem, diving in and making a better idea later. Additionally, your way of presenting the argument seems harmless and emotionless, yet reality is often far away from t…

As a manager it's my duty to create a safe space and frame the challenge in a manner that doesn't create friction in the team. When an engineer says it takes 4 weeks I well and truly trust them, all that I seek is why. Because whey they then get down to one or two level deeper details they typically uncover more unknowns and for all you know it may in fact end up as 6 weeks.

Also, none of this happens on the spot; as in "tell me right know why it takes 4 weeks, let's do a 30 mins white board session". Having been an engineer I totally understand interruptions and, as a manager, interrupting my team is like shooting myself in the foot. When I say "conversation" it happens asynchronously over several days. I encourage them to spend a day or half a day to work out task break downs and dependencies because it takes a different frame of mind to "plan" a task as opposed to "working" on them.

> Are you truly going to lose customers, or are you just trying to pressure people in "being accurate",

It's a combination of both though I wouldn't phrase the latter as "pressure" or "being accurate". It's a way to discover information that will increase my team's confidence in delivering the project. As we all know most of the project failures are not because people slack but because they uncover a dependency too late down the line or they don't validate an assumption or a new constraint is discovered. Most of which could be accounted for with a simple planning process.

I do recognise though that most engineers don't like planning or task breakdown and so I spend quite a bit of time to take much of the heavy lifting so that they don't spend more than 10% of their time on it. As a manager I am held accountable for my team's delivery and I absolutely want engineers to be spending most of their time on writing/delivering software. One example is I don't ask for plans/task-breakdowns for anything less than a week. In fact there's not even a debate; on the contrary if an engineer says 3 days I ask them to round it up to 5 days (a week). Only for tasks that are longer than a week I may get into the details and for more than 2 weeks it's almost mandatory.

> developers say things to get managers out of their hair

This seems like a well and truly dysfunctional team. Engineers and managers are partners and only when they work together can they deliver something meaningful. I would address this mis-trust or friction first because if there's no transparency within a team then all bets are off. We'll end up with a series of failed projects, burnt out engineers, operational nightmare and what not. What I've noticed is these social frictions end up manifesting as "estimation problems" and people try to address the symptom by trying out different project management processes each of which fail spectacularly.

Re: “I’ll Finish It This Week” and Other Lies

#66

Honest question. Say you have a project. Your boss expects it can be done in two weeks. Let's say you are good at estimating your own velocity, and you estimate four weeks for that project. Do you: a) Tell your boss that you effectively suck and it will take you 4 weeks instead of 2? b) Tell your boss it will take two weeks and then blame delays when the deadline passes? or c) Tell your boss it will take two weeks, t…

I (as a manager) always get a push-back when I try to impose my timelines on my team. Though we do have a healthy conversation as a result and we end up uncovering a bunch of unknowns which I then take it to my boss to inform them. When an engineer says they need 4 weeks instead of 2 it's my responsibility as a manager to get into the details, not as a way to micro-manage but to help my team be more confident about t…

> When an engineer says they need 4 weeks instead of 2 it's my responsibility as a manager to get into the details, not as a way to micro-manage but to help my team be more confident about the 4 weeks timelines.

As a manager, isn’t your job to understand the well-documented problems with direct time estimates of knowledge work even when the work is being estimated by subject-matter experts who regularly perform the type of work being estimated, and understand and coach your team on use of the known techniques with that mitigate that somewhat (among which “managers getting down in the weeds to ‘provide confidence’ is not particularly prominent), so that you develop as-decent-as-practical estimates with, over time, enmpirical error bars without unproductively wasting everyone’s time and morale in exercises that can be assured to, in general, fail to.refine them meaningfully, rather than engaging in self-deluded pop-management-culture self-ego-stroking approaches that let you feel useful, even though they are known to make estimates worse.

Re: “I’ll Finish It This Week” and Other Lies

#67
I wish they had plotted those time-series graphs with simple lines, instead of with overlapping filled curves that hide the initial history for data plotted "underneath".

Has MIT changed from a technical institute to a business school, where pretty colors matter more than the conveyance of information?

Re: “I’ll Finish It This Week” and Other Lies

#68

Honest question. Say you have a project. Your boss expects it can be done in two weeks. Let's say you are good at estimating your own velocity, and you estimate four weeks for that project. Do you: a) Tell your boss that you effectively suck and it will take you 4 weeks instead of 2? b) Tell your boss it will take two weeks and then blame delays when the deadline passes? or c) Tell your boss it will take two weeks, t…

> a) Tell your boss that you effectively suck and it will take you 4 weeks instead of 2?

Assuming the company hired me because they had a gap to fill that I fit in and also that I delivered so far in reasonable velocity: if it's really so pressing yet unpredictable to deliver, I'd take the time to analyze the task and explain the boss what parts would take how long and why. If it's a good boss, he or she will either prioritize sub-tasks or talk to the other stakeholders and change requirements, i.e. adapt requirements to reality.

If you work for a good boss/team/company, the effect afterwards will be that everybody will be more happy. Also on the long-term the project will be successful. So if making such a statement implies "you effectively suck", consider changing workplaces because this is unreasonable and even toxic. (Although even the most toxic places will give in if you have the patience and confidence to explain. If not, they'll definitely make sure to blame it on you.)

Re: “I’ll Finish It This Week” and Other Lies

#69
post #11

Estimates are here to fail, but they're nonetheless crucial: * set an estimate, you'll deliver in 1.5x your estimate * don't set an estimate, you're losing total control over delivery (rarely for the better, even though that may happen) In other words, estimates are not a tool of delivery planning, but of risk management : they are here to help limit time dilation.

I will paraphrase a former Japanese manager who taught me a lot about designing for production: "Plans will always fail but we must always have plans."

"Plans are worthless, but planning is everything" is the version I've heard.

Re: “I’ll Finish It This Week” and Other Lies

#70

Honest question. Say you have a project. Your boss expects it can be done in two weeks. Let's say you are good at estimating your own velocity, and you estimate four weeks for that project. Do you: a) Tell your boss that you effectively suck and it will take you 4 weeks instead of 2? b) Tell your boss it will take two weeks and then blame delays when the deadline passes? or c) Tell your boss it will take two weeks, t…

As someone who has been in the "boss" role on and off for a long time I have a policy of never trying to argue developers down on estimates - I usually argue up as, at least in my experience, most developers are fairly optimistic at what can be achieved in a given time.
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