Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

“I’ll Finish It This Week” and Other Lies

arxiv.org

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

21–30 of 121 posts

Re: “I’ll Finish It This Week” and Other Lies

#21

Post by conradludgate »

tpoacher wrote: post #15

Honest question. Say you have a project. Your boss expects it can be done in two weeks. Let's say you are good at estimating your own velocity, and you estimate four weeks for that project. Do you: a) Tell your boss that you effectively suck and it will take you 4 weeks instead of 2? b) Tell your boss it will take two weeks and then blame delays when the deadline passes? or c) Tell your boss it will take two weeks, t…

At my job, our PMs don't suggest any time frames, they ask all the devs for the expected effort instead. More discussion and agreement then by the people actually qualified to say. Of course we do still have some deadlines but that's also not in the PMs control as they're external factors

Re: “I’ll Finish It This Week” and Other Lies

#22

Post by unlaxedneurotic »

hmwhy wrote: post #12
halayli wrote: post #9

imo, the problem with estimates vs reality is that estimates don't include mental state. And just to clarify more about mental state, I am referring to being in the zone / flow, and individuals are healthy and experience normal stress / happiness levels. We assume and expect consistent productivity from ourselves. Anecdotally, In my 20 yrs experience, I've never heard a software engineer saying to their manager "add…

I'm not sure the metal state that you are referring to really makes a difference in terms of deadline estimation. The way I see it is that, in the grand scheme of things, if you are consistently missing the targets then either you get fired or, if the problem is systemic, the company folds. In other words, if you are not getting fired and the company isn't folding, and that neither is happening anytime soon, then eve…

I believe that OP is talking about estimating deadlines for yourself. If you estimate a deadline and then due to some reasons your mental state deteriorates, that makes it considerably harder to achieve it. Sales targets and deadlines provided externally would have very different connotations imo.

Re: “I’ll Finish It This Week” and Other Lies

#23

Post by xxs »

tpoacher wrote: post #15

Honest question. Say you have a project. Your boss expects it can be done in two weeks. Let's say you are good at estimating your own velocity, and you estimate four weeks for that project. Do you: a) Tell your boss that you effectively suck and it will take you 4 weeks instead of 2? b) Tell your boss it will take two weeks and then blame delays when the deadline passes? or c) Tell your boss it will take two weeks, t…

0 - your boss is a smart one and actually knows how to use Pi properly as an estimation multiplier.

About your honest part - your boss should really have a lot better estimation of your skills (or he sucks at that too). I suppose you're preoccupied with their opinion of you rather than getting the job completed.

Re: “I’ll Finish It This Week” and Other Lies

#24

Post by Thorrez »

curuinor wrote: post #8

it's all fat tails, they're all fat tails, assume correlational structure and whack peeps in the head if they say anything about bell curves when you play the game of code you play a demonic St. Petersburg martingale. you start with one time period. flip the coin- heads, you finish. tails, you double the time period. at the end of that time period, flip it again: heads, you finish. tails you double the time period ag…

> I said a 8 but I don’t really know why

> Could be a 1 or it could take my whole life

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sh7A8UChBTI

Re: “I’ll Finish It This Week” and Other Lies

#25

Post by TameAntelope »

conradludgate wrote: post #21
tpoacher wrote: post #15

Honest question. Say you have a project. Your boss expects it can be done in two weeks. Let's say you are good at estimating your own velocity, and you estimate four weeks for that project. Do you: a) Tell your boss that you effectively suck and it will take you 4 weeks instead of 2? b) Tell your boss it will take two weeks and then blame delays when the deadline passes? or c) Tell your boss it will take two weeks, t…

At my job, our PMs don't suggest any time frames, they ask all the devs for the expected effort instead. More discussion and agreement then by the people actually qualified to say. Of course we do still have some deadlines but that's also not in the PMs control as they're external factors

Yeah, the most helpful answer is a, but with a follow up explaining what you can do in two weeks, and you let the boss decide if that’s good enough, if there’s more resources available, or if you should work on something else with that time instead.

Re: “I’ll Finish It This Week” and Other Lies

#26

Post by TameAntelope »

splittingTimes wrote: post #13

Over the years our team has gotten good at grooming and splitting up tickets, at estimating individual tickets and keeping a steady Sprint velocity. Each 3 week Sprint we deliver what the team commits itself to. However on a macro level we fail spectacularly. Initial Roadmap estimation of how long new features take are way off. A new feature should be ready in 3 sprints.. make that 6. This milestone should be reached…

This here is why requirements need to be use case oriented, not code oriented. “I want to be able to look at my user profile” not, “I need to click on my user profile picture and navigate to a page displaying the following ten items...”

There needs to be room to deliver the value that can take on that uncertainty. It’s a good thing when an engineer can take a look at the use case and have options for how to deliver it, if you hired for that.

Re: “I’ll Finish It This Week” and Other Lies

#27

Post by vishnugupta »

tpoacher wrote: post #15

Honest question. Say you have a project. Your boss expects it can be done in two weeks. Let's say you are good at estimating your own velocity, and you estimate four weeks for that project. Do you: a) Tell your boss that you effectively suck and it will take you 4 weeks instead of 2? b) Tell your boss it will take two weeks and then blame delays when the deadline passes? or c) Tell your boss it will take two weeks, t…

I (as a manager) always get a push-back when I try to impose my timelines on my team. Though we do have a healthy conversation as a result and we end up uncovering a bunch of unknowns which I then take it to my boss to inform them.

When an engineer says they need 4 weeks instead of 2 it's my responsibility as a manager to get into the details, not as a way to micro-manage but to help my team be more confident about the 4 weeks timelines. Often times the engineers have a "gut" feeling but aren't sure about "why" so I push them to spell out that "why".

To answer your question; "b" is just about the worst possible option. It not only makes you look bad but also the whole team will get labelled; remember that your boss also has someone to answer to and it'll make them also look bad. Never keep your boss/manager in the dark. Push back with data and educate them as to why it takes 4 weeks instead of 2.

Re: “I’ll Finish It This Week” and Other Lies

#28

Post by _nalply »

hmwhy wrote: post #12
halayli wrote: post #9

imo, the problem with estimates vs reality is that estimates don't include mental state. And just to clarify more about mental state, I am referring to being in the zone / flow, and individuals are healthy and experience normal stress / happiness levels. We assume and expect consistent productivity from ourselves. Anecdotally, In my 20 yrs experience, I've never heard a software engineer saying to their manager "add…

I'm not sure the metal state that you are referring to really makes a difference in terms of deadline estimation. The way I see it is that, in the grand scheme of things, if you are consistently missing the targets then either you get fired or, if the problem is systemic, the company folds. In other words, if you are not getting fired and the company isn't folding, and that neither is happening anytime soon, then eve…

> if the problem is systemic, the company folds.

This is not the neccessary result. If a company is well established in its bullshit dealings it can survive for decades with inefficiencies and in some perverse cases even thrive.

Re: “I’ll Finish It This Week” and Other Lies

#29

Post by hrktb »

tpoacher wrote: post #15

Honest question. Say you have a project. Your boss expects it can be done in two weeks. Let's say you are good at estimating your own velocity, and you estimate four weeks for that project. Do you: a) Tell your boss that you effectively suck and it will take you 4 weeks instead of 2? b) Tell your boss it will take two weeks and then blame delays when the deadline passes? or c) Tell your boss it will take two weeks, t…

a) happens routinely. It's not just that you effectively suck, your boss also sucks and needs to learn from it.

Basically a) is your chance to recalibrate the expectations, and if you don't do it you'll be stuck forever meeting random deadlines (well, even if you do it you're still not out of that cycle, but at least you're setting precedents)

Re: “I’ll Finish It This Week” and Other Lies

#30

Post by kwhitefoot »

tpoacher wrote: post #15

Honest question. Say you have a project. Your boss expects it can be done in two weeks. Let's say you are good at estimating your own velocity, and you estimate four weeks for that project. Do you: a) Tell your boss that you effectively suck and it will take you 4 weeks instead of 2? b) Tell your boss it will take two weeks and then blame delays when the deadline passes? or c) Tell your boss it will take two weeks, t…

Not quite what you are asking but related: Many years ago my boss handed me the notes that he had made in a meeting with a customer and asked me to work out a project plan to create the hardware, drawings, software, etc.

I did that and gave it to him. The next day he called me into his office and told me that he and the customer had already agreed a delivery date and that I had to edit the plan so that it would be delivered on that date. That date was two months earlier than my estimate, 20% less elapsed time.

I tried to argue that we didn't have the necessary resources (software developers, hardware development, circuit board design and manufacturing, prototyping, etc.) to do it any faster but he insisted. So in the absence of any way to cut the time in a way that really made sense I just cut about 20% off each of the items on critical path of the Gantt chart and gave it back to him.

He seemed happy then but he was much less happy when we delivered on time and under budget according to my original estimate.

Post reply on HN